268
FXUS63 KMQT 232326
AFDMQT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
726 PM EDT Sat Aug 23 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A seasonably strong system moving north of the Great Lakes is
  bringing hazardous marine conditions such as waterspouts to
  Lake Superior and northwestern Lake Michigan this weekend into
  Monday.

- Cooler than normal temperatures and lake enhanced to lake
  effect rain showers are expected through the weekend to Monday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 126 PM EDT Sat Aug 23 2025

Lake effect cu is moving across the area from the northwest wind
belts this afternoon as cold air advection continues across the area
from a parent low centered over James Bay. This cu is also producing
sprinkles across the western northwest wind belts, although it`s
certainly within the realm of possibility that sprinkles also
develop over the eastern U.P. this afternoon too given that we are
starting to see them at the office as of the time of this writing.
While the lake effect cloud cover is expected to remain across the
area as we head into the evening hours, we could see the cloud cover
diminish as we lose the diurnal heating from the Sun. However, as a
tertiary shortwave moves through the Upper Great Lakes late tonight,
expect the cloud cover to increase, and with it expect lake enhanced
rain showers to begin picking up as well over the west to northwest
wind belts. The lake enhanced showers look to continue through
Sunday as the cold air advection continues, getting delta-Ts up to
the lower to mid teens.

Besides the lake-induced clouds and rain showers, breezy west to
northwest winds are being seen across the area this afternoon,
especially over the Keweenaw where we`ve already seen gusts up to
around 35 mph already. The gusty winds look to continue until this
evening, when they slacken off a little. However, we could still see
gusty winds up to around 20 mph (potentially 25 mph) tonight through
Sunday as the shortwave rolls through; winds aren`t expected to be
as strong Sunday behind the shortwave. That being said, dangerous
swimming conditions are still expected over the Lake Superior
beaches of Alger County the rest of today through Sunday as the
strong winds and long fetch over southeastern Lake Superior are
bringing high, dangerous waves conducive for rip current development
to the shoreline. Stay out of the water over in Alger County and
stay safe this weekend!

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 327 PM EDT Sat Aug 23 2025

Lake enhanced rain showers continue over the northwest wind belts
Sunday night as the maxima of the cold air advection moves overhead.
However, as expect the cloud cover and showers to diminish Monday
from west to east as ridging start nudging back in, with the showers
now expected to end by Monday evening. With the European ensemble
still highlighting notably cooler than normal temperatures Sunday
night through Monday night, expect the lows Sunday and Monday nights
to drop into the 40s in the interior, with the upper 30s potentially
being possible in the coldest spots of the interior west Monday
night after skies have cleared out; while not expected at this time,
we could see a patch or two of frost in the coldest spots Monday
night if the temperatures trend a few degrees cooler than the NBM
forecast. Otherwise, with breezy (but less so than today) conditions
continuing to Monday over Lake Superior, expect dangerous swim
conditions to remain over the Alger County beaches until early
Tuesday morning. Calmer weather is expected for Tuesday as weak
ridging moves through the region; sunnier skies and temperatures
around normal are expected by then.

A cold front poorly resolved by the NBM is expected to impact the
U.P. around the Wednesday night time period, bringing additional
light rain showers to the area and temperatures a little below
normal.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 726 PM EDT Sat Aug 23 2025

Lake-effect clouds continue to stream across the area through Sunday
as cold air advection continues across the region. Lake enhanced
rainfall over the NW wind belts is expected to pick up late tonight
from 6z onwards as a subtle shortwave moves through the region;
expect cigs to become more solidly MVFR from late tonight into
Sunday due to the increase in moisture and strengthening of cold air
advection over the area. Gusty W to NW winds are expected to
continue through the period.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 327 PM EDT Sat Aug 23 2025

West to northwest winds of 20 to 30 knots are being seen across Lake
Superior today as cold air advection continues to funnel into the
area from a parent low over James Bay. Given the difference in
temperature between the warm lake and cool air aloft (and given that
the winds aren`t too strong), we could see some waterspouts near
mainly the southern lakeshores of the lake the rest of this
afternoon to Monday. In addition, while not expected, we could see a
rogue gale or two up to 35 knots this afternoon to Monday (up to
~10% chance) as gusty winds continue through the rest of this
weekend to Monday ahead of an behind a tertiary shortwave swiping
the area late tonight. However, expect the winds to generally be a
touch weaker Sunday through Monday as the pressure gradient weakens
a little. As ridging begins to nudge into the region on Monday,
expect the winds to progressively weaken from west to east,
eventually becoming 20 knots or less Monday night. Lighter winds are
expected through Tuesday as the weak high pressure ridging moves
through the area. However, expect winds to pick up once again to
around 20 to 30 knots from the southwest to west ahead of an
incoming cold front Wednesday over the western and central lake,
although light winds of 20 knots or less are currently predicted
behind the front at this time for Thursday.

&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Upper Michigan...
  Beach Hazards Statement until midnight EDT tonight for MIZ006.

Lake Superior...
None.
Lake Michigan...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TAP
LONG TERM...TAP
AVIATION...LC
MARINE...TAP