839
FXUS63 KMQT 292317
AFDMQT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
717 PM EDT Tue Jul 29 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms possible over the
  south central and east late this afternoon to this evening.

- Cooler to near normal temperatures and dry weather is expected
  Wednesday through the rest of the week. Temperatures are
  expected to warm to normal to above normal by this weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 220 PM EDT Tue Jul 29 2025

As high pressure ridging pushes in from Canada today, observations
show a broad cold front progressively moving through the Upper
Peninsula today, with flow generally becoming northerly behind the
frontal boundary and remaining generally southerly ahead of it.
While there is a low chance (up to 40% in the south central and 20%
in the east) for scattered showers and thunderstorms to form along
the frontal boundary and Lake Michigan lake breeze this afternoon
into this evening, with the forcing being fairly weak and the
expected CAPE amounts not being as impressive as it was over the
past two days, no severe weather is expected at this time. Most of
the U.P. has already gotten up into the 70s this afternoon, with the
south central already getting lower 80s. Expect these temperatures
to remain throughout the rest of the day as diurnal cu develops
ahead of the cold front boundary pushing through the U.P. the rest
of today.

Besides the potential showers and storms over the south central and
east later this afternoon and evening, the only other significant
weather element worth mentioning is the wildfire smoke coming in
from Canada. With satellite imagery and model guidance showing smoke
from these wildfires pumping into the area for the middle of this
week, the Michigan Department of Environment, Great Lakes, and
Energy (EGLE) has issued an Air Quality Alert that runs from 3 PM
EDT this afternoon to noon EDT Thursday. The smoke could cause
respiratory issues for people, especially for those sensitive to
fine particulate matter. Therefore, people should avoid doing
strenuous activity outdoors and to keep their windows closed so that
the smoke doesn`t enter their houses.

Tonight into Wednesday, expect cooler temperatures as cold air
advection slowly continues behind the cold front. For lows tonight,
thinking we will get down into the mid 50s in the interior areas,
with the smoke probably keeping us insulated a little. For highs on
Wednesday, thinking we will be well below normal, with most of the
area only getting into the lower to mid 70s; areas near Lake
Superior could even be limited to just the 60s, which is quite the
change from a few days ago.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 220 PM EDT Tue Jul 29 2025

Quiet and dry weather is expected to dominate the rest of the week
into early next week as the high pressure eventually builds into the
Great Lakes region by this weekend. With the zenith of cold air
aloft moving over the U.P. by around Thursday, expect the coolest
temperatures of the week to occur then, with low temperatures
Wednesday and Thursday nights looking to drop into the 40s and highs
on Thursday on getting into the upper 60s to lower 70s. Afterwards,
expect temperatures to slowly begin warming back up, with around
normal to above normal temperatures returning to the area by this
weekend and continuing into early next week. We could see RHs dip
into the lower 30 percents during the afternoon hours Friday and
Saturday. However, as moisture begins to increase this weekend to
early next week, expect the min RHs to increase as well.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 717 PM EDT Tue Jul 29 2025

Smoke has filtered into the area and has supported MVFR and IFR
visibilities this afternoon/early evening. Current guidance suggests
this may linger or improve slightly overnight at all sites. The same
guidance suggests smoke will remain over the area Wednesday, likely
resulting in visibility reductions. Otherwise, VFR ceilings are
expected in this TAF period under light northerly or variable flow,
although gusty winds at KCMX/KSAW will be possible Wednesday
afternoon.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 220 PM EDT Tue Jul 29 2025

Light winds of 20 knots or less continue across Lake Superior the
rest of this week through this weekend as high pressure continues to
build into the region from the Canadian Prairies.

&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Upper Michigan...
None.
Lake Superior...
None.
Lake Michigan...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TAP
LONG TERM...TAP
AVIATION...JTP
MARINE...TAP