975
FXUS63 KMQT 100000
AFDMQT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
800 PM EDT Sun Aug 9 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Isolated showers and storms this afternoon and evening.

- Dry weather returns Monday, followed by additional showers and
  storms on and off through midweek. Strong to severe storms are
  not expected.

- Temperatures come in near normal through the rest of the
  forecast period.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 310 PM EDT Sun Aug 9 2026

Afternoon GOES WV imagery indicates a broad troughing pattern across
central and eastern Canada with zonal flow over the Great Lakes. A
shortwave to the south this morning kept better convective activity
over southern WI. As the northern flank of this shortwave energy
matches up with a cold front reinforced by the lake breeze this
afternoon, some showers and weak storm development is possible
within the CWA (20-50% chance). Temps have warmed into the upper 60s
to upper 70s atop Tds in the low to mid 60s, yielding SBCAPE of up
to around 1000 J/kg over the west and 500 over the east. Low level
lapse rates have reached up to 7-7.5 C/km in the west, but mid level
lapse rates are lower at 6.5 C/km. Shear will be strong (~40kts),
but strong to severe storms are not expected given the more
transient forcing. Isolated showers and storms are anticipated into
this evening from west to east before dry weather returns the rest
of tonight. Probabilities for greater than 0.25 inches of rain are
only 10-40%. Some patchy fog is expected tonight, especially where
showers occur today. Lows settle into the mid 40s to upper 50s,
coldest interior west.

Monday into Monday night remains dry under weak ridging. Highs will
be seasonable in the 70s to low 80s under partly sunny skies. Lows
Monday night will be slightly warmer in the 50s to low 60s.

The rest of the week sees a slow trend to slightly cooler than
normal temps as highs trend toward upper 60s to mid 70s for the end
of the work week with lows in the 40s to mid 50s. Shortwaves Tuesday
and Wednesday yield chances for showers and storms (25-50% chance)
with plenty of timing/coverage uncertainty. Bulk shear will be
strong, but instability is not forecast to be very impressive so
severe weather is not expected at this time. Finally the broad
Canadian troughing pattern breaks down late this week and stronger
high pressure returns to the Great Lakes, favoring drier weather
into the weekend. PoPs return late Saturday into Sunday as ensembles
track a low pressure system into the region.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 800 PM EDT Sun Aug 9 2026

Removed PROB30 from KSAW with issuance of 00z TAF package as radar
remains quiet and instability begins to wane. Otherwise, fog
development will be the main forecast concern at the terminals
tonight from roughly 06-12z Mon. Best chances for IFR/LIFR will be
at KSAw, but could see MVFR/IFR develop at all terminals. Expect fog
to clear Mon morning, with west-northwest winds increasing to 8-10
kt at most sites in the afternoon.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 310 PM EDT Sun Aug 9 2026

Winds and gusts on Lake Superior generally remain below 20 kts
through the forecast period as weak pressure gradients are expected.
After today`s rain showers, some patchy fog development is expected
tonight. Confidence in timing and placement is too low to warrant any
Dense Fog Advisories at this time.

Southwest winds of 10-15 kts with gusts to around 20 kts are
expected over northern Bay of Green Bay and northern Lake Michigan
into early this evening, strongest lakeside. Winds fall off for
tonight, holding around 10 kts as they become north Monday morning.
Winds and gusts generally remain 15 kts or less the rest of the
forecast.

&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Upper Michigan...
None.
Lake Superior...
None.
Lake Michigan...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...77
AVIATION...CB
MARINE...77