613
FXUS63 KMQT 061842
AFDMQT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
242 PM EDT Mon Oct 6 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Cool conditions for the first half of this week; a widespread
freeze is possible for inland areas Tuesday night. Frost and/or
freeze conditions will be possible again Wednesday night.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 235 PM EDT Mon Oct 6 2025

Early this afternoon the upper level ridge responsible for the
recent warm weather was now over the east coast with troughing
extending from the Hudson Bay southwest into the Northern Plains and
central Rockies. Satellite imagery showed clouds continuing to
stream northeast through the eastern U.P behind the cold front that
passed through the area last night into this morning. Over the
central and west breaks in the clouds had developed. There was
enough instability for lake effect clouds off Lake Superior but
dry air and low inversion heights kept the convection shallow
and precip free. Temperatures this afternoon were much closer to
seasonal averages, mainly in the 50s.

For tonight, an upper level jet streak moves across the area
providing lift for at least some elevated showers this evening over
the central and eastern U.P. With dry air in the low levels it could
be hard for the precipitation to make it to the surface over the
central U.P but kept chance PoPs there with likely PoPs over
the east.

There is a chance for frost tonight over the interior with clearing
skies late tonight. However, a pre-frontal trough moving through the
area might be enough to keep winds from going calm and decoupling of
the boundary layer. With considerable uncertainty maintained the
NBM low temperatures for tonight.

Through midweek the trough will slowly move east through the Great
Lakes. Afternoon highs closer to seasonal averages are expected
through Wednesday. With subsidence at the base of the trough plenty
of clear skies and dry weather is expected. The combination of dry
air, clear skies and light winds will make opportunities for
frost and freeze conditions for the inland areas, especially in
the central and west. Have issued a Freeze Watch for Tuesday
night across much of the U.P with the exception of the Keweenaw
and far east. NBM MinT probabilities for <32 are up to 100% over
the inland areas of the central and west and around 50% in the
east. Most locations near the Lake Superior shoreline should
remain above freezing with light onshore flow.

The trough axis shifting east of the area late in the week as a
ridge of high pressure builds into the western U.S. This will
result in temperatures warming into the 60s across the U.P late
this week, several degrees above seasonal averages. Northwest
flow aloft will be favorable for at least a few shortwaves to
affect the area, bringing the chance for precipitation back into
the forecast Thursday into Friday.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 150 PM EDT Mon Oct 6 2025

Lingering MVFR cigs are expected to lift within the next hour or two
leaving VFR conditions the remainder of the 18Z TAF period. While a
stray shower may pass over SAW this evening, confidence is too low
to include (15-30% chance) given the drier airmass in the low levels
and impacts are not expected regardless. Winds turn light and
variable this evening, but lightly increase out of the west tonight.
A sharper increase is expected behind a cold front Tuesday morning
with gusts up to 20 kts likely at IWD/SAW and up to 30 kts at CMX.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 235 PM EDT Mon Oct 6 2025

West winds will strengthen to 25 kts tonight ahead of an approaching
cold front. The cold front will push through the area Tuesday
morning with winds becoming northwest to 30 knots behind the front.
A few gusts to gale are possible at the higher platforms. Winds
become light on Tuesday night, below 20 kts as high pressure settles
into the region. Low pressure tracking through Ontario will bring
increasing southerly winds for Thursday into Friday, possibly up to
30 kts.

&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Upper Michigan...
  Freeze Watch from Tuesday evening through Wednesday morning
     for MIZ002-004>006-009>014-084-085.

Lake Superior...
None.
Lake Michigan...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...NL
AVIATION...77
MARINE...NL