313
FXUS63 KMQT 062300
AFDMQT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
700 PM EDT Fri Jun 6 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered showers and maybe a few thunderstorms are expected
  this afternoon, mainly western and central Upper Michigan.

- Widespread rain and thunderstorms expected on Sunday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 358 PM EDT Fri Jun 6 2025

A weak cold front has slowly pressed over the UP today, resulting in
the rather stationary -ra band extending from NW WI to NE Lake
Superior. As the supporting shortwave exits and high pressure
resides at the sfc, this precip should gradually dissipate as it
slowly shifts SE. A wide range of temps is currently noted in obs as
the Keweenaw and near Lake Superior resides in the 50s to low 60s
with 60s to low 70s elsewhere, warmest interior S where the longest
clearing has occurred. This has allowed for some marginal instability
to grow in the S, with RAP analysis indicating 100-200j/kg over the
S-Central and along Lake MI. This may increase slightly (~100 or so
j/kg) this afternoon supporting some isl -shra as the cold front
continues to exit, however there only is a 25% chance for above
300j/kg of CAPE. Shear is also limited to 30 kts or less, so these
popcorn-like shra will be unorganized and short lived. A few rumbles
of thunder can`t be ruled out, but confidence in -tsra is low.
Impacts regardless are not expected with only a few hundreths up to
0.1" of QPF in heavier shra.

Skies scatter out and dry weather returns tonight with the setting
sun. Some Canadian Wildfire smoke noted over Lake Superior this
afternoon will continue to stream over the UP tonight into Sat.
Model guidance does not suggest that near smoke concentration will
be high enough for Michigan`s Department of Environment, Great
Lakes, and Energy (EGLE) to issue another Air Quality Alert/Advisory
for elevated levels of fine particulate (PM2.5)...will continue to
monitor this. Otherwise, lows are expected in the 40s with winds
becoming calm by Sat morning.

While a shortwave travels to the S, brief mid level ridging returns
on Sat with high pressure at the sfc. Temps warm into the mid 60s to
upper 70s, warmest interior. Some lake breezes are possible, but
increasing S flow may prevent how far inland a Lake Superior lake
breeze reaches. Mainly dry weather is expected, however a few
diurnal -shra may lift N over the far W in the afternoon. Any
accumulations likely will remain less than a few hundreths. Dry
weather returns for most of Sat night. Attention then turns to the
extended fcst when the best precip chances return to the UP.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 358 PM EDT Fri Jun 6 2025

A cooler and wetter period begins on Sun as a cold front sweeps
across the UP and a vigorous mid level trough originating from the
Canadian Prairies dives SE into the Great Lakes Region, briefly
forming a closed low Sun night/Mon. The cold front will be
accompanied by some shortwave energy and the left exit region of a
85kt upper level jet to provide a widespread round of shra on Sun.
With low level winds increasing ahead of the front, some modest bulk
shear develops to at least 35-40kts is expected to accompany a few
hundred to 1000 j/kg of MUCAPE (model dependent) to support some
healthier tsra with brief downpours and a few gusty winds (sub-
severe). PWATs increasing to 1-1.3" and model soundings showing a
brief period of deep moisture indicate some better measurable ra up
to 1.0" with more widespread precip expected between 0.3"-0.6".
Despite a dry slot looking to jut in behind the primary line of cold
front precip progressing E over the UP, increasing cyclonic flow and
diurnal instability may bring additional shra/tsra in the afternoon
before a brief dry period returns. After a lull in -shra, additional
shra/tsra return on Mon as the stacked low meanders over the Great
Lakes with associated wraparound moisture behind the front and
diurnal instability. This system also brings a cooler airmass to the
UP with highs into early next week in the 60s to low 70s and lows in
the 40s to low 50s.

Ridging into the latter part of the week will favor a warmer and
drier period. The next chances for precip will depend on shortwave
propagation over the region.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 700 PM EDT Fri Jun 6 2025

VFR conditions continue through tonight and Saturday, with the band
of light rain showers dissipating over the central UP early this
evening. Given high pressure ridging building into the UP tonight,
no LLWS is expected. While we could see some residual smoke and haze
across the TAF sites (namely CMX and SAW) tonight through Saturday,
with vis expected to be above 6 SM, didn`t include mentions of it in
the TAF. IWD could see some rain showers late Saturday afternoon,
but given that the rainfall should be light, conditions should
remain VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 358 PM EDT Fri Jun 6 2025

Calm winds persist through the rest of tonight before a gustier
period arrives tomorrow with south/southwest winds gusting to around
20-25 kts late through Sunday as a low pressure system approaches
the Great Lakes. Showers and a few thunderstorms accompany the
incoming system, moving from west to east much of Sunday. Winds
shift to the northwest behind the low pressure system Monday,
falling back below 20kts.

&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Upper Michigan...
None.
Lake Superior...
None.
Lake Michigan...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Jablonski
LONG TERM...Jablonski
AVIATION...TAP
MARINE...BW