971
FXUS63 KMQT 222355
AFDMQT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
655 PM EST Fri Nov 22 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Active weather with periodic chances for accumulating snow return
  next week. Temperatures will begin to trend below normal for this
  time of year.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
Issued at 1219 PM EST Fri Nov 22 2024

In the wake of yesterday`s rainfall event, continued northerly flow
off Lake Superior with abundant low level moisture has supported
mostly cloudy skies and some terrain aided drizzle/light rain. The
precip appears mostly confined to central Upper Michigan, the
Keweenaw and the Gogebic Range per webcams, but I wouldn`t be
surprised if pockets of drizzle were experienced elsewhere. Daytime
highs have clocked out in the upper 30s to low 40s.

More of the same is expected as we progress through the night. A
brief period of cold air advection on the heels of a weak shortwave
overnight will help lower and reinforce a low level inversion,
trapping moisture and cloud cover over the forecast area. This will
also support more sustained, albeit still light and scattered, lake
effect shower activity mainly over the east. Overnight lows look to
bottom out in the 30s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 308 PM EST Fri Nov 22 2024

Broad ridging building in from the Plains will result in generally
drier weather and slightly above normal temperatures this weekend.
After that, a series of northwest flow shortwaves moving through the
Upper Great Lakes will bring periods of pcpn through much of next
week which will be mainly in the form of snow showers as
temperatures trend colder.

Broad ridging beginning to work in from the Plains on Saturday and
resulting mid-level subsidence should yield drier conditions across
the area through this weekend. However, a series of weak shortwave
troughs brushing the eastern fcst area along with associated CAA
over eastern Lake Superior with 850 mb temps dropping to -8 to -10C
could support scattered nw flow lake effect rain and snow showers
into mainly the east half counties of the cwa Saturday into early
Sunday. High temperatures over the weekend will range from the mid
30s to the lower 40s under generally mostly cloudy skies.

Our next chance for precipitation looks to come Sunday night/Monday
as a shortwave trough originating over the Northern Rockies
moves into the Upper Great Lakes. There is still a decent amount
of uncertainty on the exact timing of the shortwave, track of
its associated sfc low, and onset of associated pcpn, but
deterministic and ensemble guidance suggest increasing chances
for pcpn, especially late Sunday night/Monday. Based on fcst
soundings ptype looks to be predominately snow. There could be a
quick 1-2 inches of wet system snow on Monday, mainly over the
west half.

CAA in a cyclonic n-nw flow behind Monday`s system as it departs to
the east will sustain lake effect/lake enhanced snow showers into
midweek as shortwave impulses continue to move across the area. A
few of the models also hint at possible preconditioning off Lake
Nipigon which could lead to a more intense lake effect snow band
forming into Alger/Schoolcraft counties during this time. Models
also indicate a stronger Clipper shortwave will bring a reinforcing
shot of cold air across the area in the late Thursday into Friday
time frame. This shortwave appears to sharpen lake induced troughing
across the area while leading to a more convergent low-level n-nw
flow. This, in turn, could help focus stronger lake effect/lake
enhanced snow bands into the nw wind snow belts of Lake Superior for
late week. Thanksgiving holiday travelers should pay close attention
to the latest forecasts and plan accordingly for potentially
impactful wintry weather.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 653 PM EST Fri Nov 22 2024

Persistent MVFR (possible IFR) conditions will persist for the
majority of the TAF period with low level moisture under
inversion. Northwesterly winds in excess of 12 kts will continue
through the evening at SAW, then decreasing to under 10 kts. No
wind impacts at IWD or CMX. Trended toward a return to VFR at
IWD by tomorrow afternoon, but that is low confidence.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 308 PM EST Fri Nov 22 2024

Northwest winds 15 to 25 knots continue tonight into Saturday,
highest east half, before winds taper off blo 20 kts Saturday night
into Monday morning with a ridge moving across the area. A low pres
tracking se and east of the area late Monday will cause north-
northwest winds to increase to 20 to 30 knots across the lake late
Monday into Tuesday. The EPS shows a 20-30% chance for gale gusts
for a small area in Marquette Bay on Tuesday. Winds are expected to
weaken to 20 knots or less again late Tuesday into Wednesday as a
surface high pressure ridge builds in from the west.

&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Upper Michigan...
None.
Lake Superior...
None.
Lake Michigan...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JTP
LONG TERM...Voss
AVIATION...TDUD
MARINE...Voss