974
FXUS63 KMQT 181902
AFDMQT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
302 PM EDT Mon Aug 18 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered showers press west to east tonight, lingering across
  the eastern UP early Tuesday morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 302 PM EDT Mon Aug 18 2025

GOES Satellite imagery and RAP analysis reveal a broad ridge across
much of the central CONUS with a weak embedded mid-level shortwave
pressing through the Upper Midwest this afternoon. So far,
isentropic ascent has been able to force light showers across the
region, but with limited MUCAPE (less than 100 j/kg) and pathetic
lapse rates aloft, no lightning has been observed in the UP,
however, a few GLM flashes in upstream Duluth`s area may provide a
stray clap of thunder this evening in the west. The overall better
forcing has remained to the south, so despite increasing PWATs,
showers have remained on the light side. Should an increase in
coverage occur this evening, a few heavy rain producing showers are
possible. Otherwise, temperatures have managed to hold in the mid to
low 60s today and are not expected to cool much overnight. The
aforementioned wave presses east tonight and shower activity will
decrease from west to east. Landfalling trough in the PNW and
building ridge over the 4 Corners region increases heights overhead
the N Plains and Upper Midwest, expanding sfc high pressure from the
north through much of Tuesday. Lingering low level moisture will
keep cloudy skies overhead before a subtle cold front ushers in an
drier airmass Tuesday night into Wednesday. Look for slightly warmer
temps tomorrow in the upper 60s to near 70.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 302 PM EDT Mon Aug 18 2025

High pressure remains in place through midweek before ridge-riding
shortwaves cause the ridge to receded southwards by Friday. Expect
dry weather to persist to at least early Friday. Then, a deeper
trough and associated surface low move through Manitoba and Ontario
Friday into the weekend. This will bring in our next chances for
rain as a cold front sweeps through. Additionally, though a warming
trend is expected after through the mid-week, temperatures may turn
cooler than average next weekend behind the front.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 302 PM EDT Mon Aug 18 2025

The onset of showers and increasing moisture via a shortwave
pressing through the upper Midwest has brought all TAF sites to MVFR
this afternoon. The aforementioned wave will bring a few rounds of
scattered showers before ultimately pushing east through early
Tuesday where lingering showers may be present at SAW. Expect
increasing moisture to lower cigs to IFR tonight. Breezy S to SW
winds persist, especially at SAW and CMX where gusts 15-20 kts are
likely.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 302 PM EDT Mon Aug 18 2025

Southeast winds of 15-25 kts across most of the lake, strongest
north central, continue into this evening. Winds gradually settle
below 20 kts through tonight from west to east as the pressure
gradient weakens. Winds then back northerly for Tuesday and become
variable through the remainder of the week as broad ridging over the
region keeps winds mainly below 20 kts. The next shot at widespread
20-30 kt winds arrives this weekend as a low pressure system tracks
to the north.

&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Upper Michigan...
None.
Lake Superior...
None.
Lake Michigan...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BW
LONG TERM...BW
AVIATION...BW
MARINE...Jablonski