865
FXUS63 KMQT 250005
AFDMQT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
805 PM EDT Sun Aug 24 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A seasonably strong system moving north of the Great Lakes is
  bringing hazardous marine conditions such as strong winds and
  potentially waterspouts to Lake Superior and northwestern Lake
  Michigan the rest of today into Monday.

- Cooler than normal temperatures and lake enhanced to lake
  effect rain showers are projected throughout the rest of today
  into tonight.

- Some patchy frost is possible in the cold spots of the
  interior west Monday night/Tuesday morning and to a lesser
  extent Tuesday night/Wednesday morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 317 PM EDT Sun Aug 24 2025

Cooler temperatures and cloudier skies are already being realized
today in comparison to yesterday, with the lake-influenced rainfall
helping to bring a feeling of early Fall to Upper Michigan this
Sunday. As one more subtle shortwave makes its way overhead late
this afternoon (satellite imagery over Lake Superior as of around 3
PM EDT shows it heading towards us), expect one more uptick in lake
enhanced rain showers across the area (namely the northwest wind
belts) before dwindling away tonight and ending Monday. As this
occurs, expect the breezy northwesterly winds to continue through
the area the rest of this afternoon into Monday thanks to the cold
air advection continuing to cycle into the region. The breezy winds
will continue to bring High Swim Risk conditions for the Lake
Superior beaches of Marquette and Alger counties the rest of today
through Monday; therefore, avoid swimming in Lake Superior early
this week as rip currents and dangerously high waves are expected.

Eventually, though, expect the winds to start lightening and for the
sky to clear out as ridging begins to make its way into the U.P.
late tonight through Monday. Thus, while cloud cover will help to
keep things somewhat insulated tonight, we could still see lows drop
down into the 40s in the interior areas; as for highs on Monday,
thinking the loss of lake-effect cloud cover with time will allow
temperatures to get into the 60s across the area.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 317 PM EDT Sun Aug 24 2025

The long term forecast looks to be fairly quiet at this time, save
for a cold front descending from northern Ontario bringing
additional rain showers (and maybe a couple of thunderstorms?) to
the area around Wednesday evening to the early Thursday morning time
period. Otherwise, expect temperatures to range from around normal
to below normal for the period, with the warmest temperatures this
week expected on Wednesday as highs climb into the lower 70s. We may
actually see cold enough temperatures for frost in the coldest spots
of the interior west Monday night and to a lesser extent Tuesday
night; temperatures could drop down to as low as the lower to mid
30s in some of these cold spots. Therefore, if you live in the
interior west and have a green-thumb, it may be prudent to keep an
eye on the low temperature forecast for early this week over the
next couple of days. As we start to warm Tuesday, we could see some
RHs drop down to around 30% in the interior areas by the afternoon
hours thanks to the help of the unimpeded sunshine and high pressure
overhead; no other fire weather concerns are expected though as
winds are still expected to be pretty light throughout the day.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 804 PM EDT Sun Aug 24 2025

VFR conditions have returned to both IWD and CMX and are expected to
stay there through the end of the TAF period. SAW is also currently
at VFR levels, but lingering scattered showers in that area will
require a tempo for MVFR conditions through at least Mon 04Z.
After that, as high pressure and drier air overspread the area,
SAW will also be mainly VFR. Meanwhile, the gusty northwest
winds will continue into tomorrow with sustained speeds in the
12 to 14 kt range, gusting to 22 kts at times at all TAF sites.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 317 PM EDT Sun Aug 24 2025

Northwest (to occasionally north) winds of 20 to 30 knots continues
through the rest of today into Monday as a couple subtle shortwaves
and cold air advection continue through the region thanks to a
parent low parked over James Bay. Given the large temperature
difference between the relatively `warm` lake sfc and the cooler air
aloft, a rogue gust or two up to 35 knots could be seen over the
eastern open lake early Monday morning. In addition, there is a
chance for some waterspouts near the southern shoreline the rest of
today into Monday, even though the best chance for waterspouts is
expected over northern Lake Michigan. As ridging begins to nudge its
way back into the area Monday, expect the waterspout chances to end
and winds to diminish, with winds diminishing to 20 knots or less
again by late Monday night. Light winds of 20 knots or less continue
through Tuesday as the high pressure moves across the region, before
picking up to 20 to 30 knots again from the southwest and eventually
west Wednesday ahead of an incoming cold front dropping down from
northern Ontario. However, expect the winds to drop down to 20 knots
or less again by Wednesday night behind the front, and for the
lighter flow to continue through the rest of the week.

&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Upper Michigan...
  Beach Hazards Statement until 11 PM EDT this evening for
     MIZ005-006.

Lake Superior...
None.
Lake Michigan...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TAP
LONG TERM...TAP
AVIATION...TDUD
MARINE...TAP