794
FXUS63 KMQT 021136
AFDMQT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
736 AM EDT Tue Jun 2 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dry weather persists through Wednesday with above normal
temperatures.

- Next chances of showers and thunderstorms early Thursday through
late Friday, but uncertainty in the details is high. Additional
chances for convection linger into the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 356 AM EDT Tue Jun 2 2026

Little change in the forecast this morning as a well defined omega
block continues to dominate the upper level pattern. RAP analysis
depicts the ridge axis extending from Hudson Bay through the Upper
MS River Valley to the Central Plains, with a pair of lows centered
over Montana and Newfoundland respectively. Clear skies and light
winds over the U.P. have allowed temperatures to drop towards the
lower end of guidance overnight, with widespread lows in the low 40s
and even a few 30s away from the lakes. Surface high pressure will
migrate directly overhead from Hudson Bay and northern Ontario today
while 850 mb temps increase slightly to 10-12 C. This will push
highs a few degrees warmer than yesterday, with many locations
reaching the upper 70s to mid 80s. Relative humidity values will
bottom out in the low 20s in most locations away from the immediate
lakeshores this afternoon, but light winds will serve to limit any
fire weather concerns. Expect temps may drop a bit lower than
guidance again tonight given the persistent clear and calm pattern
remaining conducive to optimal radiational cooling processes.

The omega block will begin to gradually break down today, with
ensemble guidance indicating that the main ridge will de-amplify with
higher thicknesses collapsing progressively southeastward over the
region until Wednesday night. This means high pressure will continue
to dominate at the surface through this decay process, with dry,
backing gradient flow and light winds at the surface. Thus, expect
widespread very dry afternoon RH`s in the low 20`s through Wednesday
afternoon prior to the next pattern shift. High temperatures increase
through Wednesday, reaching the high 80s in the interior west and
low 80s elsewhere on Wednesday afternoon. Fire weather concerns will
remain limited, however, due to lack of wind. Take care to hydrate
proactively, and check burn bans.

Ensemble guidance indicates that Wednesday night into Thursday will
bring about the final collapse of the decaying ridge from the omega
block as the Montana low propagates eastward, reaching Ontario by
midday Thursday. At this point, however, deterministic models
suggest the low will dissipate as ridging builds in quickly behind
it into Friday. Although the passage of this low coincides with a
plume of anomalously high PWAT reaching the UP from the Gulf as
shown by the LREF and ECWMF EFI, guidance suggests minimal synoptic
forcings at this time. From a buoyancy standpoint, however, the LREF
shows above up to 70% probability of 250 J/kg of MUCAPE entering the
western UP early Thursday morning, and 10-20% probability of 1000
J/kg of MUCAPE in the CWA Thursday evening. Between Thursday and
Friday, LREF shows 30-40% chance of 6-hour precipitation greater
than 0.1", with higher accumulations in the western UP. So for
Thursday and Friday, chances exist of a wetting rainfall
accumulations and a thunderstorm or two, but the threat of severe
weather is minimal.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 735 AM EDT Tue Jun 2 2026

High pressure maintains VFR conditions under mostly clear skies for
the duration of the TAF period. Winds will mainly be light, but
could increase to 8-10 kt out of the east for a time this afternoon
at KSAW as lake breezes kick in. Otherwise expect light and variable
winds through 12z Wed.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 356 AM EDT Tue Jun 2 2026

High pressure over the Great Lakes will keep winds below 20 kt
through Wednesday. The high shifts east Wednesday night into
Thursday with southerly wind gusts around 20 kt. There will be a
slight chance of thunderstorms ahead of a weakening disturbance
Wednesday night into Thursday night.

&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Upper Michigan...
None.
Lake Superior...
None.
Lake Michigan...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CB/RE
AVIATION...CB
MARINE...Thompson