115
FXUS63 KMQT 211722
AFDMQT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
1222 PM EST Fri Nov 21 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered to isolated lake effect rain/snow showers are
  possible today into this evening across mainly the eastern
  U.P.

- Benign, low impact weather is expected this weekend into the
  early part of next week.

- Lake effect snow may impact the Thanksgiving holiday weekend.
  Travelers and interested parties should continue to monitor
  the forecast as details become more clear over the coming
  week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 146 AM EST Fri Nov 21 2025

As light rain showers dwindle away across the NW wind belts, mainly
the east, early this morning, a cold front dropping down from
northern Ontario through Lake Superior later today will bring
isolated to scattered light rain/non-accumulating snow showers back
across the NW wind belts again (mainly the east). Given the dry air
in within the boundary layer, not much liquid is expected, just a
couple of hundreths really over the east unless a more persistent
band develops (some CAMs have this occurring, but mainly near the
Munising area and by Whitefish Point tonight); even then, only a
tenth or two of liquid is really expected in this `highest amounts
scenario` given the marginal delta-Ts and high pressure ridging
building in from the Northern Plains this weekend. No snowfall is
expected as the air and ground temperatures are too warm at this
time. Expect the relatively warm temperatures (for this time of year
at least) to continue today through early next week, with highs in
the upper 30s to mid 40s today and Saturday increasing into the 40s
to around 50 in some spots by early next week as Gulf air begins to
infiltrate the Upper Midwest.

While still several days out, we are already tracking a potential
low pressure system impacting Upper Michigan around the time of
Thanksgiving. While their is still high uncertainty in the placement
and timing of the low`s track, guidance has converged on a shortwave
lifting from the Southern Rockies phasing with a Clipper low over or
near the Upper Great Lakes. As of the time of this writing, medium
range model guidance has trended the track of the low further north
than previously forecasted. While the cold air dropping down from
the Arctic still looks to impact us by the middle-to-end of next
week, chances are lowering on system snowfall with this low. That
being said, given the polar air coming down across the area and
strong troughing still expected across the Upper Great Lakes behind
the low around Thanksgiving, we could still see some impactful lake
effect snowfall accumulations over mainly the NW wind snow belts for
next Thursday and beyond. Thanksgiving travelers should continue to
keep an eye on the forecast; given that this system is still several
days out, the track and placement of the low could greatly change
between now and middle of next week, which in turn could
dramatically change the forecast.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1222 PM EST Fri Nov 21 2025

Clouds MVFR skies remain overhead Upper Michigan through this
evening but will gradually scatter out after this evening,
yielding VFR for the remainder of the TAF period. Breezy west-
northwest winds along the Keweenaw will bring 20-25 kt gusts to
KCMX through this afternoon. Winds fall below 15 kts tonight as
high pressure settles overhead.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 146 AM EST Fri Nov 21 2025

West to northwest winds of 20 to 25 kts early this morning increase
to 20 to 30 kts late this morning as a cold front moves through the
lake, before dying down to northwest winds of 20 kts or less again
by this evening as weak sfc ridging builds in. As another Clipper
low crashes through the Upper Great Lakes on Saturday, expect winds
to increase from the south to southwest to around 20 kts ahead of
the shortwave`s passage, before becoming northwesterly at 20 to 30
kts behind the shortwave on Saturday night into Sunday morning
(highest winds and waves over the eastern lake). As more substantive
ridging builds in early next week, expect the winds to die down to
20 kts or less again by Sunday evening, remaining that way until
around Tuesday when a Clipper starts to phase with a shortwave
lifting from the Southern Rockies towards the Upper Great Lakes.

&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Upper Michigan...
None.
Lake Superior...
None.
Lake Michigan...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...TAP
AVIATION...BW
MARINE...TAP