Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI
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350 FXUS63 KMQT 200532 AFDMQT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Marquette MI 1232 AM EST Thu Nov 20 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Light rain with some snow mixing in for the high elevations tracks west to east tonight through Thursday. - Benign, low impact weather looks to continue this weekend into the early part of next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 257 PM EST Wed Nov 19 2025 Early afternoon GOES satellite imagery increasing clouds across the UP as a shortwave drops south through the Canadian Prairie. This wave will support a weak sfc low pressure reflection set to track through Ontario tomorrow. Radar returns show an uptick in light rain/snow shower activity in northern MN and far western Lake Superior, forced by mid-level warm air advection. Expecting shower activity to spread into the northwestern UP tonight and progress eastward across the rest of the UP through Thursday. Snow may briefly mix in at times as temperatures cool tonight just below freezing, mainly in the higher elevation areas. Rainfall amounts remain rather meager as both the latest NBM/HREF point to low probability <50% for amounts >0.1" by Thursday night. Heading into Friday morning, the system`s surface cold front will swing west to east, kicking out synoptic precip and ushering in cooler midlevel temps that will be sufficient enough for lake effect clouds / precip development over the NW wind snowbelt, particularly the east half. Bufkit profiles continue to be unimpressive, with dry air within the DGZ, a small inverted V at the surface, and lake inversion heights only 5-6 kft (highest east). This suggests some light lake effect rain/flurries with graupel mixed in. Upper Michigan then settles into a low impact, zonal flow pattern this weekend into the early part of next week as daytime highs remain slightly above seasonal norms in the low 40s. A few embedded shortwaves will bring occasional chances for light precipitation, but do not see anything particularly noteworthy on the horizon at this time. Ensembles and their deterministic counterparts are honing in on active weather returning mid-week with a pair of waves working through the Great Lakes Tuesday/Wednesday, but differ on the speed and potential phasing of said systems. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 1231 AM EST Thu Nov 20 2025 MVFR CIGs are expected for the beginning of the TAF period with a low cloud deck spreading across the U.P. CIGs are expected to fall further overnight to IFR by morning. Scattered showers are expected at CMX with periods of LIFR CIGs possible through the day Thursday. A period of LIFR CIGs are also possible at IWD early through late morning. While a few light showers can`t be ruled out at SAW not expecting impactful VIS/CIG reduction with any of the showers, MVFR and IFR will prevail at SAW. && .MARINE... Issued at 257 PM EST Wed Nov 19 2025 Winds will begin to increase out of the southwest across Lake Superior as the surface pressure gradient is squeezed between high pressure to the south and low pressure approaching from the west. This will result in winds increasing to 20-25 kt and spreading eastward tonight into Thursday as waves build to 3-5 ft west of the Keweenaw and 2-4 ft in the east. Winds shift westerly and northwesterly later Thursday into Friday, with the passage of a cold front, increasing NW winds between 25-30 kts and waves building to 4- 7 ft over the eastern half of the lake. Ensemble probability for Gales to 35 kts are low, with the Euro ENS suggesting a 10-30% chance across the eastern lake Friday afternoon and HREF/NBM only 10- 20%. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Upper Michigan... None. Lake Superior... None. Lake Michigan... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...BW AVIATION...NL MARINE...BW