725
FXUS63 KMQT 072321
AFDMQT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
721 PM EDT Sat Jun 7 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Rain and a few thunderstorms will move west to east across the UP
on Sunday.

- Numerous showers and isolated thunderstorms develop on Monday,
with small hail and heavy downpours possible.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 308 PM EDT Sat Jun 7 2025

Early afternoon water vapor imagery shows a couple of notable
upstream troughs - one moving east across IA/MO and a cutoff low
drifting southeast over Saskatchewan. Low-amplitude ridging
exists between these features, with remnant surface ridging
holding over the eastern UP. Although the IA/MO trough is too
far south for any direct impacts to the local area, a couple of
diurnal showers and perhaps an isolated storm cannot be ruled
out over the western UP this afternoon as weak instability
develops. Otherwise, visible satellite and webcams show smoke
mainly aloft, although vsby is reduced over the eastern UP,
suggesting some of that smoke is reaching the surface there.
Tonight, southerly flow and cloud cover increase from west to
east ahead of the SK wave continuing to move southeastward. This
should result in some 20-25kt gusts in areas favorable for SE
downsloping toward morning. Lows in the mid-40s to mid-50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 308 PM EDT Sat Jun 7 2025

Sunday, a band of rain and embedded thunderstorms is expected to
move west to east across the UP through the day. This forcing is on
the leading edge of the DCVA associated with the deep midlevel
cutoff low approaching from the northwest. Instability is limited
with this band, so while a few embedded storms can`t be ruled out,
especially over the west, severe weather is not expected. Some
decent rainfall amounts are expected with HREF PMM showing some
values in the 0.75-1.00 inch range suggesting local amounts in this
range, but limited duration and instability will preclude any hydro
threat. There is a window for modest surface-based instability to
develop in the wake of this band over the west half in the afternoon
and evening, with HREF mean developing values around 500 J/kg, and
HREF max suggesting some spots could see in excess of 1000 J/kg.
Deep layer shear is expected to decrease sharply in the wake of the
morning rain, however, so organized/severe convection probability is
less than 20%. Highs are expected to be in the upper 60s to mid-70s,
warmest east.

On Monday, the upper low and its associated cold pool moves over the
UP. Weak diurnal instability will be quick to develop beneath this
cold pool, so numerous/widespread showers and isolated to scattered
thunderstorms are expected to develop. Parameters do not favor
severe weather, but with freezing levels falling to 6-8kft, some
small hail is possible. Locally heavy downpours are also possible
with slow storm motion. Isolated to scattered diurnal showers are
possible on Tuesday, but with the midlevel low having moved out,
coverage will be far less than Monday. Monday will be rather cool
with highs in the 60s, with a warm-up for Tuesday with upper 60s to
low 70s. Wednesday looks to be the warmest day of the week with fast
WNW flow aloft and highs in the low 70s to low 80s.

Uncertainty reigns for the end of the week as modest zonal flow
aloft develops over the upper Great Lakes. Some organized convective
episodes are suggested over the northern Plains along an approaching
warm front, but high pressure developing over northern Ontario will
feed dry air in from the northeast. It remains to be seen where the
local area will wind up with respect to these features, but the
trend has been for a stronger high which would lead to drier and
cooler conditions. Will maintain NBM chance PoPs for this period
until greater certainty is attained.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 721 PM EDT Sat Jun 7 2025

VFR conditions continue into the first half of the night. Late
tonight into Sunday, clouds thicken and southerly winds increase
ahead of an approaching band of rain. This will bring LLWS
conditions and winds gusting to around 20 kt late tonight into
Sunday morning. Cigs will lower to MVFR shortly after the rain
begins. An isolated thunderstorm is possible at IWD and CMX from
around 10-14Z (30% chance). Behind the band of rain, additional
afternoon showers and rumbles of thunder will be possible at all
terminals (30% chance).

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 308 PM EDT Sat Jun 7 2025

East/south winds of 10-20 kts this afternoon will shift to the south
this evening into Sunday, gusting to around 20-25 kts at times,
especially near the shore, as a low pressure system approaches the
Great Lakes. Southeast to southwest winds will generally stay under
15 kts Sunday night and variable under 15 kts on Monday. Gustier
west to southwest winds are forecast to arrive Tuesday and Wednesday.

Hazy skies will persist this weekend as smoke from Canadian
wildfires spreads across the region. Showers and a few thunderstorms
accompany the incoming low pressure system, moving from west to east
on Sunday, with additional showers and a few storms arriving on
Monday.

&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Upper Michigan...
None.
Lake Superior...
None.
Lake Michigan...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Thompson
LONG TERM...Thompson
AVIATION...LC
MARINE...SB