447
FXUS63 KMQT 201721
AFDMQT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
1221 PM EST Thu Nov 20 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Light rain tracks west to east through this evening,
  potentially with some mixed precipitation in the highlands
  this morning.

- Benign, low impact weather this weekend into the early part of next
  week.

- Pattern potentially trends much colder mid to late next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 408 AM EST Thu Nov 20 2025

Radar shows light precipitation echos starting to move into the
western U.P. early this morning ahead of an upstream trough noted
over Manitoba on water vapor satellite imagery. Temperatures
currently range from the mid to upper 30s across most of the U.P.,
and as such expect light precipitation to fall as mostly rain as it
continues to move into the area this morning. Can`t rule out a few
snowflakes mixing in in the highlands for a few hours around
daybreak, but would expect little if any impact from mixed
precipitation this morning. Light rain will continue to spread east
across Upper Michigan today as the upper trough continues east
into northern Ontario, pushing a surface cold front across our
area later today through tonight. Precipitation amounts have
changed little from previous forecast cycles as models continue
to cap QPF at around a tenth of an inch or less across most of the
area today. The best chance for slightly higher amounts will be
over the Keweenaw where HREF probs show about a 40% chance to
exceed 0.10" through this evening.

Cold air advection in the wake of the front will usher in a weak
lake effect regime for the west-northwest snowbelts tonight into
Friday. Model soundings continue to depict rather shallow inversion
heights of 5-6 kft coupled with dry air in the low levels which will
significantly limit potential for anything more than just a few
light snow showers and a dusting of accumulation over the far east
from Alger into Luce County late tonight and Friday morning. Friday
therefore looks mostly dry across much of the U.P., with breezy
conditions in the post frontal environment.

Upper Michigan then settles into a low impact, zonal flow pattern
this weekend into the early part of next week as daytime highs
remain slightly above seasonal norms in the upper 30s to low 40s. A
few embedded shortwaves will bring occasional chances for light
precipitation, but still do not see anything particularly noteworthy
on the horizon at this time. Ensembles and their deterministic
counterparts continue to signal more active weather returning mid to
late next week as deeper large scale troughing looks to become
established over the region. This points to much colder temperatures
with daytime highs generally dipping below freezing by late week,
but specific details of the pattern remain nebulous at this time.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1221 PM EST Thu Nov 20 2025

Abundant low level moisture and transiting rain showers will
continue in this TAF period ahead of a cold front. This front will
progress west to east through the region this evening. Ahead of the
front, LIFR/IFR conditions are expected, where LIFR is most likely
at KCMX in rain showers. Additionally, gusty southwest to westerly
winds near 25 kts are expected ahead of the front at KCMX. After the
front, conditions will gradually improve to VFR at all sites. Gusty
winds at KCMX will persist behind the front, but shift to the
northwest as they increase to 25-30kts by morning.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 408 AM EST Thu Nov 20 2025

Winds will remain out of the southwest at 20-25 kt across Lake
Superior today as the pressure gradient continues to be squeezed
between surface high pressure over Lower Michigan and a trough of
low pressure approaching from the west. Significant wave heights
will continue to build to 3-6 ft west of the Keweenaw and 2-4 ft in
the east through this afternoon. Winds shift west-northwesterly
tonight into Friday behind a passing cold front, gusting to 25-30 kt
and maintaining small craft headlines in the east through Friday
afternoon as waves build to 4-7 ft over the eastern half of the
lake. The probability for Gales remains low as latest HREF guidance
depicts only a 10-20% chance for gusts of 35+ kt. Winds will
diminish to 10-15 kt Friday night into Saturday before another weak
disturbance brings the chance for another round of 20-25 kt westerly
winds and 2-4 ft waves later in the weekend.

&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Upper Michigan...
None.
Lake Superior...
None.
Lake Michigan...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CB
AVIATION...JTP
MARINE...CB