123
FXUS63 KMQT 112334
AFDMQT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
634 PM EST Tue Nov 11 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Lake effect rain and snow showers are expected into Thursday
  with little to no impacts.

- Warmer temperatures will result in daytime snow melt, which
  will refreeze overnight. Ice or black ice may result in
  hazardous roadways during the morning commutes Wednesday and
  Thursday morning.

- Northwest winds near 40 mph are possible near Lake Superior
  and in the Keweenaw Wednesday (30-60% chance).

- A Gale Warning is in effect for much of Lake Superior late
  tonight through Wednesday for northwest 34-40 knot winds.

- A gradual warm up to above normal temperatures is expected by
  this weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 337 PM EST Tue Nov 11 2025

Lingering WAA/isentropically driven light snow mixed with a bit of
rain over the far east continues pressing out of the CWA as high
pressure ridging gives way to the south and a trough/frontal
boundary move in from the west. Afternoon highs will be in the 30s
to low 40s.

With a mid level ridge over the western CONUS and downstream trough
over New England, Upper Michigan find`s itself underneath northwest
flow through Thursday with shortwave ripples and cold air advection
supporting lake effect rain and snow showers over the northwest wind
snow belts. Model soundings show inversion heights between 5-7 kft,
but indicate that lack luster moisture will be a limiting factor.
While snow at times will be the favored p-type, the DGZ remains
quite dry and low level wind shear + dry near surface layers will
work against all measurable precip during the period. The best
moisture will be present tonight in the west and late tonight into
Monday morning in the east (PWATs ~0.5"), resulting in isolated
spots receiving 0.20" of liquid, particularly where there is
assistance from upslope flow. Snow accumulations should be limited
to less than 1" tonight. Lows in the mid 20s to 30s.

Shower activity diminishes in the west by late Wednesday afternoon,
then diminish late Thursday in the east, thanks to increasing
ridging slowly building into the region. The tighter pressure
gradient and cold air advection over the area tonight and Wednesday
will also result in breezy northwest winds, especially near Lake
Superior and in the Keweenaw where 35 to 40 mph gusts become more
common. Some guidance does suggest 40+ mph potential in the Keweenaw
Wednesday (between a 30-60% chance). Elsewhere, gusts of 20-30 mph
should be expected on Wednesday. Daytime highs gradually climb into
the 40s by Thursday while lows continue to dip into the 20s to mid
30s. With daytime snowmelt and nighttime refreezing, ice or black
ice formation on roads and sidewalks is possible, which could impact
the morning commutes Wednesday and Thursday.

The warming trend continues into this weekend as ridging over the
central CONUS moves east overhead and high pressure shifts east with
it. Highs on Saturday peak in the upper 40s to 50s. Lows Friday
night and Saturday night likely remain above freezing for most (75%
chance). This also keeps dry weather in the CWA Thursday night
through Friday night.

The next chance for precip arrives this weekend as ridging and high
pressure give way to a trough out of the Canadian Prairie/northern
Rockies. This is expected to start out as a widespread round of
rain, but with the mid level trough digging southeast overhead
Saturday night through the rest of the weekend, a colder airmass of
850 mb temps dropping to around -9C alongside PVA support a period
of lake effect showers into early next week.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 634 PM EST Tue Nov 11 2025

MVFR conditions being observed across the western half of the U.P.
this evening will spread east through 06z as northwest flow re-
invigorates lake effect shower activity in the northwest wind
snowbelts. Expect mainly MVFR conditions with mix of rain and snow
showers at the terminals through much of the period as winds shift
westerly and eventually west-northwest, gusting to 20-25 kt at KIWD
and KSAW and as high as 35 kt at KCMX. Conditions will trend VFR
towards the end of the period as shower activity tapers off and wind
gusts start to diminish after 21z Wed.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 337 PM EST Tue Nov 11 2025

Lingering southerly winds of 20-30 kts will be replaced by west
winds of 20-30 kts this evening in the wake of a surface trough and
frontal boundary. Cold air advection and a tighter pressure gradient
late tonight through Wednesday support a period of northwest gales
to 35-40 kts, focused near the Keweenaw and over central/eastern
Lake Superior; maintained the Gale Warning as is. These strong winds
build significant wave heights to 6-10 ft over the west and 8-13 ft
over the east; highest western waves near the Keweenaw and highest
eastern waves north of Grand Marais, MI.

Westerly winds between 20-30 kts continue through Thursday, but
frequent gales end Wednesday evening over the west and late
Wednesday night across the remainder of the lake as the pressure
gradient begins to slacken. Stray gale force gusts are possible into
Thursday over the east (15-40% chance). Winds fall below 20 kts from
west to east across the lake by late Thursday night, becoming
easterly for Friday. Southeast winds increase Friday afternoon to 20-
30 kts, strongest over the north central third of the lake Friday
night through Saturday ahead of the next system. Chances for gales
to 35 kts are low during this period, between 15-30%. In the
system`s wake, more widespread 15-30% chances reside across the lake
the rest of the weekend as a cold airmass dives southeast over the
region.

&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Upper Michigan...
None.
Lake Superior...
  Gale Warning from 1 AM EST /midnight CST/ to 7 PM EST /6 PM
     CST/ Wednesday for LSZ241-242-263.

  Gale Warning from 1 AM Wednesday to 1 AM EST Thursday for
     LSZ243>251-264>267.

Lake Michigan...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...77
AVIATION...CB
MARINE...77