049
FXUS63 KMQT 110811
AFDMQT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
311 AM EST Thu Dec 11 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Lake effect snow showers continue across the northwest wind snow
belts of the eastern UP through this evening. Additional snowfall
totals peak at around 1-3".

- Cooler than normal temperatures continue through early next week.
Low temperatures in the single digits to below zero are possible
this weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 310 AM EST Thu Dec 11 2025

Longwave pattern over the CONUS this morning features troughing over
the East, with a midlevel low centered over the Ontario/Quebec
border region, and a ridge out west. A subtle shortwave is apparent
over Saskatchewan. At the surface, deep low pressure is moving over
New England while high pressure builds over the Plains. In between,
the Great Lakes remain under persistent NW flow. This will keep the
lake effect machine going for most of today, though drier midlevels
will largely limit this to the eastern UP given the longer fetch off
of Superior. Radar indicates pretty decent banding extending across
Alger and Schoolcraft counties, and for its part, the HREF is
showing mean snowfall rates of around a half-inch per hour in the
strongest of bands. Snow showers are dropping visibility to near a
mile when they move over available surface stations. This could make
for tricky driving conditions at times across US-2 and M-28 this
morning. However, inversion heights continue to lower while
soundings continue to dry out within/above the snow growth zone, so
snowfall rates should fall back through the morning. Snow finally
dwindles late tonight into Friday. Until then, look for another 1-3"
across the eastern UP. Temperatures in the teens this morning peak
in the lower to mid 20s, falling back into the teens and single
digits tonight.

Another weak clipper looks to move across Lake Superior late Friday
into early Saturday, bringing another quick batch of snowfall Friday
afternoon and evening that transitions over to lake effect late
Friday night. Snowfall totals aren`t too miraculous, with most of
the UP only picking up a quick 1-2". However, lake enhancement over
the Keweenaw may lead to higher totals in excess of 4" by Friday
night (30-40% chance among various ensembles), then lake effect
lingers into the weekend. Another shot of arctic air then moves into
the area this weekend behind the system as 850 mb temps plummet to -
20 to -25C by early Sunday. This will correspond to daytime highs in
the single digits to low teens and overnight lows flirting with
below zero readings over much of the area for Saturday and Sunday.
Also expect breezy northwest winds to develop on the backside of the
Friday system, contributing to sub zero wind chill values across
much of the U.P. through the weekend.

Models continue to hint at another clipper approaching the region
late Sunday into Monday, but also continue to differ greatly with
respect to strength, progression, and timing of this feature as some
solutions would result in impactful snowfall while others would miss
the U.P. completely to the north. Looking farther out into next
week, there is then some indication that a slight warm up may be in
store mid to late week as daytime highs potentially climb above up
above freezing for the first time since prior to Thanksgiving. Stay
tuned.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1215 AM EST Thu Dec 11 2025

MVFR conditions prevail at all sites with scattered lake effect
-SHSN observed at SAW and IWD. IWD will see the lowest ceilings
 tonight with a 20-25 percent chance of IFR ceilings around 09Z.
 IWD is 75 percent likely to return to VFR in the morning while
 SAW is around a 50/50 chance of MVFR/VFR and CMX`s chances of
 VFR is only 1-in-3 at most today. Expect primarily NW winds
 throughout the period at all sites, occasionally gusting to 20+
 kt at CMX.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 310 AM EST Thu Dec 11 2025

Northwest winds continue to gust to 20-25kts across the eastern
half of the lake this morning, slowly falling back through the
afternoon. To the west, winds are coming in below 20kts. Expect a
brief period of lighter westerly winds below 20 kt across the entire
lake into early Friday before winds increase again ahead of the next
system. This will bring renewed gale chances by Saturday morning,
with a 30-50% probability of gales over central portions of the lake
during the weekend, and freezing spray concerns also increasing as a
frigid air mass moves over the region.

&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Upper Michigan...
None.
Lake Superior...
None.
Lake Michigan...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...LC
AVIATION...GS
MARINE...LC