611
FXUS63 KMQT 141126
AFDMQT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
626 AM EST Fri Nov 14 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Warmer temperatures today will give way to a cooling trend
  this weekend as a cold front brings falling temperatures along
  with increasing chances for showers.

- Breezy Saturday into Sunday, especially along the Keweenaw and
  near Lake Superior. There is a high risk for gales over the
  central and eastern parts of the lake Saturday afternoon
  through Sunday evening.

- Lake effect snow showers return to northwest wind snowbelts
  late this weekend and continue through early next week, mainly
  in the eastern U.P. Only minor accumulations are expected
  with minimal impacts through the period.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 404 AM EST Fri Nov 14 2025

IR satellite imagery reveals mostly clear skies across Upper
Michigan this morning, save for a patch of broken mid level cloud
cover drifting over the central UP. Expect another quiet day today,
characterized by mostly sunny skies as an upper level ridge of high
pressure traverses the Great Lakes. This coupled with low level
southerly flow will help to push temperatures into the 50s across
much of the area this afternoon, with highs potentially getting into
the mid to upper 50s in the west.

More active weather returns on Saturday as a cold front moves into
the area in the morning, bringing the next chance for precipitation.
The best rain chances will be across the east, with model QPF
amounts mostly capped around a tenth of an inch owing to plenty of
dry air to overcome in the low levels of the atmosphere.
Temperatures will be a bit cooler than Friday, but will still make
it into the upper 40s in most spots and push 50 across the east and
closer to Lake Michigan. Saturday will also be quite breezy as winds
shift northwesterly behind the front and cold advection helps to mix
stronger gusts down to the surface. Gusts exceeding 30 mph will be
common along the Lake Superior shoreline, with the NBM indicating
around a 40% chance for gusts as high as 40 mph along the Keweenaw.

The colder air mass continues to filter into the region through
Sunday as 850 mb temps fall to around -10 C by Sunday morning and
highs highs top out in the 30s in most locations for Sunday
afternoon. As such, will see precipitation start to transition back
over to snow Saturday night into Sunday, favoring the typical
northwest wind snow belts mainly from Marquette/Alger County. Do not
expect any major accumulations or impacts from this snow as a
continued lack of moisture and relatively low inversion heights
limit snowfall potential. Winds will also remain breezy through Sun
day as Gales persist over the central and eastern parts of Lake
Superior through Sunday evening.

Cold northwest flow looks to maintain a low-impact lake effect
rain/snow shower regime across the eastern U.P. into the first half
of next week, with temperatures gradually moderating from the 30s
closer to seasonal norms in the low to mid 40s by the middle of the
week.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 626 AM EST Fri Nov 14 2025

VFR conditions will prevail today with high clouds moving over the
region with mostly light winds. Tonight, southerly flow prevails
ahead of a Saturday morning cold front. Expecting a few hours of low
level wind shear tonight at all sites with periodic gusts near 20kts
at KIWD. Additionally, guidance is suggesting quickly developing
flight categories at KSAW after midnight.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 404 AM EST Fri Nov 14 2025

Quiet this morning with southwest winds mostly in the 10-15 kt range
across Lake Superior. Winds will increase today as southerly flow
increase ahead of an approaching frontal system, with 25-30 kt gusts
expected over the eastern half of the lake this afternoon and
evening as waves build into the 3 -5 ft range.

Winds quickly shift westerly and then northwesterly on Saturday
behind a cold front, with strong cold advection helping to mix 35-40
kt gusts down to the surface. Have therefore hoisted a Gale Watch
for the central and eastern portions of the lake from Saturday
afternoon through Sunday evening, with waves building to 8-13 ft
from the Keweenaw eastward by Saturday night. Northwest winds
gradually diminish from Sunday night through the early part of next
week, dropping below 20 kt by Tuesday with waves subsiding
accordingly.

&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Upper Michigan...
None.
Lake Superior...
  Gale Watch from Saturday afternoon through Sunday evening for
     LSZ243>251-264>267.

Lake Michigan...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CB
AVIATION...JTP
MARINE...CB