609
FXUS63 KMQT 272106
AFDMQT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
406 PM EST Thu Nov 27 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Warnings in the east and Advisories in the west downgrade to just
Advisories in the east as winds gradually relax and lake effect snow
slows down gradually through tonight and Friday.

- A low pressure system tracking through Lower Michigan late
Saturday and Sunday will bring 30-40% chances of 6 inches of system
snow along Lake Michigan, and a reinvigoration of Lake Superior lake
effect snowfall.

- Lake effect snow showers persist along with cool overnight lows
next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 405 PM EST Thu Nov 27 2025

KMQT radar returns show diminishing NW/SE oriented LES bands in the
west half with 3 semi-dominant bands in the east, all in Alger
County but with sufficient inland penetration to reach into Delta
and Schoolcraft with snowfall rates still up to 1"/hr. RAP analysis
shows the surface low lifting north through Quebec at 995mb, with
expansive 1035mb high pressure over the Northern Plains and into the
Canadian Prairie. As the high begins to assert itself with the
departure of the low, lake effect will continue to gradually
diminish in strength and coverage. While the CAMs show LES
continuing in the east, soundings show significant dry air intrusion
at the surface and at the top of the approximately 7.5 kft tall
inversion. Additionally, wind gusts have trended slightly downwards,
though remaining breezy over Lake Superior and the eastern
shorelines with Munising and Grand Marais still reporting 40+ mph
gusts. Because of the downward trend in the winds, though they
linger in the east, the eastern Blizzard Warning will be allowed to
expire at its original time of 7 PM EST tonight. Through tonight and
Friday, expect 1-2 inches of LES in the west, highest where the Lake
Superior-facing terrain can give an orographic boost. For Marquette
County, the orographic support from the steep terrain around  Big
Bay and the westernmost ongoing stronger LES band will lead to a
couple of spots seeing in excess of 4 inches of additional
snowfall, justifying the extension of the Advisory a little
longer despite the highest population centers unlikely to see
more than 2 inches of snowfall. For the eastern counties,
forecasting 4 to 6 inches of additional snowfall, especially in
the center band (supported by Lake Nipigon) which will penetrate
even into southern Schoolcraft County, potentially impacting
post-holiday travel along US-2 near and east of Manistique. By
Friday evening, with high pressure shifting even closer to the
UP, winds will relax to 10 mph or less in the west and 20 mph in
the east.

By Saturday, attention turns upstream to a shortwave trough diving
through the Plains. Ensembles have honed in on a surface low
pressure track from Missouri Saturday evening to the Michigan Thumb
Sunday morning and quickly to Quebec by Sunday night. A few ensemble
members to bring tracks closer to Northern Lower Michigan, but for
the most part, the synoptic precipitation should be limited to the
counties along the Lake Michigan shores. Interests especially from
Menominee to Escanaba should monitor this system as the LREF
suggests 40% chances of 6 inches of snowfall (assuming a 15:1 snow
ratio) with this system. The axis of strongest snowfall will also
threaten multiple corridors that will be stressed from the end of
Thanksgiving weekend travel. For the rest of the UP, the passage of
the low will give another shot of cold air aloft and the cyclonic
wind pattern will help reinvigorate lake effect snowfall, first out
of the north and becoming northwest. Current model guidance suggests
around 0.5"/hr rates Saturday night into Sunday, though some
uncertainty in available moisture does exist, so those numbers could
change.

Uncertainty grows into next week as high pressure skirts around the
Great Lakes in the wake of the low and then one or more clipper lows
pass near the area next week, though ensembles are highly spread on
the track, intensity, and timing of such a feature. With Lake
Superior around 5 C, 850mb temperatures of around -10 C should all
but guarantee at least some presence of LES, and the LREF suggests
50-90% chances of that temperature or cooler, even with periods of
SW flow next week. Cooler than normal temperatures will prevail at
the surface as well, especially overnight, where the NBM calls for
single-digit lows for many interior UP locations, including some
lows near 0 Monday and Tuesday morning (though raw, un-"bias
corrected" model guidance would suggest warmer temperatures).

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1234 PM EST Thu Nov 27 2025

Brisk NW flow is keeping lake effect going today, though drier air
and gradually decreasing winds will work to improve restrictions
somewhat. MVFR ceilings are expected at all terminals, and drops in
visibility down to MVFR and even IFR remain possible in snow showers
and blowing snow (with the lower restrictions more likely at CMX and
SAW than at IWD). Snow showers largely end into early Friday morning
with drier air working in, though MVFR ceilings may linger.
Otherwise, NW winds continue to gust to around 20-30kts, possibly
higher at CMX this afternoon, then winds decrease slightly into
early Friday.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 405 PM EST Thu Nov 27 2025

With low pressure continuing to lift through Quebec, northwesterly
wind gusts will be on a relaxing trend through today and Friday,
with gales in the east half to 40 kt falling sub-gale early Friday
morning and below 20 kt Friday evening. Given the long fetch and
long duration of the northwest winds, the waves will take some time
to relax, only falling below 12 ft in the southeast by Friday
afternoon and below 4 ft early Saturday morning. A low pressure
passing through the southern Great Lakes basin will ramp up wind
gusts to 20-30 kt Sunday with some guidance suggesting up to 50%
chances of a brief localized gale in the southeastern region of Lake
Superior. Wind gusts will then remain around 20-30 kt next week as
high pressure to the south of the Great Lakes is opposed by
occasional clipper low pressure systems.

&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Upper Michigan...
  Winter Weather Advisory until 7 PM EST /6 PM CST/ this evening
     for MIZ002>004-009-084.

  Winter Weather Advisory until 7 AM EST Friday for MIZ005.

  Blizzard Warning until 7 PM EST this evening for MIZ006.

  Lakeshore Flood Advisory until 1 AM EST Friday for MIZ006-007.

  Winter Weather Advisory until 7 PM EST Friday for MIZ006-007-
     014-085.

  Winter Storm Warning until 7 PM EST this evening for MIZ007-
     013-014-085.

Lake Superior...
  Gale Warning until 1 AM EST Friday for LSZ244-245-264-265.

  Gale Warning until 11 PM EST this evening for LSZ248.

  Gale Warning until 7 AM EST Friday for LSZ249>251-266-267.

Lake Michigan...
  Gale Warning until 7 PM EST this evening for LMZ221-248-250.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...GS
AVIATION...LC
MARINE...GS