080
FXUS63 KMQT 040632
AFDMQT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
232 AM EDT Wed Jun 4 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Smoke and haze from upstream wildfires continues to impact air quality
  today. The combination of surface smoke and fog may result in
  pockets of poor visibility for this morning`s commute.

- Mostly dry conditions expected today and tonight, followed by
  a low chance (<25%) of rain showers Thursday afternoon.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 232 AM EDT Wed Jun 4 2025

Light rain continues to mingle over central and eastern Upper
Michigan; all loiters from yesterday`s cold front. At the surface,
the moisture from this rain, coupled with an inversion just above
the surface has supported pockets of fog and smoke near the surface,
which is resulting in visibility reductions across the region.
Overnight temperatures have dipped into the low 50s to upper 40s
across the region.

High pressure building in from the west will continue to support the
overnight inversion and pockets of fog/smoke, at least until we
begin to mix with surface heating later this morning. With this in
mind, expect occasional pockets of lower visibility for the this
morning`s commute. The high and associated subsidence will support a
dry day where model soundings suggest being able to mix upwards of 6-
8k feet into much drier air aloft. This may result in RH values
falling into the 20s across the interior west and 30s interior east
this afternoon as we warm into the 70s. Afternoon lake breezes are
expected given the light gradient flow, which may support increased
cloud cover and some sprinkles should enough vertical development
occur. However, much more then that isn`t expected given the dry
airmass over the region.

Poor air quality will continue today. Michigan`s Department of
Environment, Great Lakes, and Energy (EGLE) has extended the Air
Quality Alert for elevated levels of fine particulate (PM2.5) in the
U.P. through today. Pollutants could reach the Unhealthy (Red AQI)
range or higher. It is recommended that, when possible, you avoid
strenuous outdoor activities, especially those with heart disease
and respiratory diseases such as asthma.

Surface ridging will root over the region, lingering tonight and
Thursday. Expecting a partly cloudy to clear and calm night with
lows in the 40s and daytime highs Thursday in the 70s. Light
gradient flow will again support afternoon lake breezes, which, with
a weak mid-level perturbation moving into the region, may result in
increasing afternoon cloud cover and some light rain showers.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 409 PM EDT Tue Jun 3 2025

Quieter weather ends the work week as weak zonal flow returns and
weak high pressure builds over the Great Lakes. Some diurnal
instability with the help of the Lake MI lake breeze may support
some -shra on Thu, but the dry solution is favored for now. If the
dry solution pans out, RH may dip below 30% interior-W. That said,
winds are expected to remain light and ongoing precip should help
moisten the very dry conditions and limit fire wx concerns. There is
better support for diurnal shra on Fri. A shortwave Fri night/Sat
may bring another round of shra, but placement is uncertain and
precip may remain to the S and W of the CWA. A more vigorous trough
dives SE into the Great Lakes on Sun, potentially developing into a
closed low for Mon/Tue over the Great Lakes and supporting a wetter
pattern. Otherwise, near normal temps are expected.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1255 AM
EDT Wed Jun 4 2025

Flight restrictions to linger through early morning at all TAF
sites, but moreso due to fog and smoke than rain. Most rain in
asociation with a cold front has exited the area with the exception
of SAW, where it will linger through Wed 09Z. So, focus then turns
to periods of IFR/LIFR early this morning due to advection fog. IWD
has improved to VFR at this time, but cannot rule out another round
of fog; therefore, highlighted that with a tempo. Elsewhere,
IFR/LIFR conditions should be pretty consistent at CMX through
daybreak Wednesday. Meanwhile, confidence is a bit lower at SAW
where MVFR has returned for now. However, will not rule out a period
of IFR fog there as well early this morning. After Wed 12Z though,
VFR conditions are expected to return to all TAF sites through the
end of the TAF period. Light and variable winds will be conducive to
fog, but otherwise not impactful.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 351 PM EDT Tue Jun 3 2025

Dense fog advisories have been posted for the central and eastern
lake tonight as a cold front bring rain showers from west to east.
The western half of the lake may be added to the advisory this
evening as things progress.

Additionally, wildfire smoke has been observed near the lake
shores, at times drastically reducing visibility. Whether smoke
or fog, mariners should be cautious of low visibility over the
lake for the near future as models indicate near surface smoke
lingering behind the cold frontal passage.

Variable winds below 20kts this afternoon will be on the increase
this evening ahead of the aforementioned cold front, gusting up
to 20-25kts out of the SW across most of the lake (apart from
the far western arm). Stronger gusts up to 30kts are possible in
the nearshore waters off the eastern UP due to downsloping late
tonight into early Tuesday. Winds shifting over to the NW
behind the front will turn calmer from west to east tomorrow
afternoon and evening. As weak zonal flow remains aloft
throughout the rest of the work week, expect winds to come in at
20kts or less the rest of the week. Showers and thunderstorms
will be possible beginning late tonight in the far western
portions of the lake, tracking eastward ahead of the front
through Tuesday. Any stronger embedded storms may lead to gusty
and erratic winds as well as lightning and heavy downpours.

&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Upper Michigan...
  Air Quality Alert until 1 AM EDT /midnight CDT/ Thursday for
     MIZ001>007-009>014-084-085.

Lake Superior...
  Dense Fog Advisory until 11 AM EDT /10 AM CDT/ this morning
     for LSZ240>251-263>267.

Lake Michigan...
  Dense Fog Advisory until 5 AM EDT early this morning for
     LMZ221-248-250.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JTP
LONG TERM...Jablonski
AVIATION...TDUD
MARINE...BW