373
FXUS63 KMQT 021734
AFDMQT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
134 PM EDT Sat Aug 2 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Drier and warmer weather persists this weekend into early next
week.

- Smoke from Canadian wildfires will continue impacting air quality
and may locally reduce visibility at times. An Air Quality Alert
remains in effect for all of Upper Michigan through Sunday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 134 PM EDT Sat Aug 2 2025

GOES-EAst imagery shows a sky near-completely devoid of water
clouds, though wildfire smoke from Canada is evident. Given measured
AQI values are still elevated, it is safe to say this smoke remains
at least somewhat near-surface. RAP analysis shows an expansive
1028mb high pressure centered over Wisconsin with flow aloft
characterized by longwave troughing over eastern North America
and ridging over western North America interrupted by some
shortwaves, most notably over the Dakotas. This wave looks to
stall over the Red River Valley (of the north) through the short
term forecast, ultimately keeping impacts away from the UP for
now. Subsidence from the high pressure will keep the air
stagnant and prevent dispersion and ventilation of the
aforementioned near-surface smoke, prompting the State of
Michigan EGLE to extend the Air Quality Advisory through Sunday.
For more information about impacts and resources, check out the
AQA.

Beyond the hazy skies from the smoke, slightly warmer than normal
conditions are expected with high temperatures around the 80 degree
mark for most throughout the weekend. In spite of background winds
out of the west to southwest around 5-10 mph, CAMs show a lake
breeze off the Great Lakes, which will cause a wind shift in the
afternoons near the Great Lakes but wind speeds themselves will
largely be under 10 mph (except for the Keweenaw Peninsula where
wind speeds will be higher). Low temperatures tonight look to be in
the 50s in the interior and around 60 for the lakeshores.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 331 AM EDT Sat Aug 2 2025

Moving into the work week, ensembles diverge significantly about how
the pattern breaks down and how embedded shortwaves track through
the region. This makes the precipitation forecast challenging,
though with less certainty in stifling high pressure, a diurnal
precipitation pattern emerges in the interior west in the NBM as
even in weakly forced atmospheres, the chances of the summertime
airmass over the interior western UP acquiring 1000+ J/kg of SBCAPE
climbs above 50 percent by the mid to late week period per the NBM.
Part of this increasing trend in instability is due to the
increasing trend in surface moisture as connection to Gulf or Corn
Belt moisture becomes more likely. The LREF shows chances of surface
dew points exceeding 65 degrees climbing over 50 percent by
Thursday. Should the models start to coalesce around any particular
shortwave trough, severe weather potential will be in play, but no
particular day`s setup stands out at this time. While high
temperatures are still expected to hover around the 80 degree mark
throughout the week, the increased moisture will make for a slight
warming trend in low temperatures well into the 60s by the end of
the week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 134 PM EDT Sat Aug 2 2025

Despite SKC conditions, low-end VFR to MVFR conditions are expected
with visibility reductions being due to wildfire smoke from Canada.
Under high pressure throughout this entire TAF period, smoke is not
expected to disperse or ventilate much. Winds will be primarily out
of the west to northwest, though SAW (and potentially IWD) will see
variable winds becoming out of the northeast this afternoon due to a
lake breeze, though model guidance differs on the timing of such a
breeze. There is some early indication a lake breeze will prevail
around 18Z Sunday, though most models have lake breeze passage after
18Z at this time. Lake breezes will provide some opportunity for
smoke to concentrate on the leading edge of the lake breeze
boundary, though only enough to increase the chances of MVFR visby.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 331 AM EDT Sat Aug 2 2025

Under primarily high pressure, winds will remain below 20 kt for
most of this forecast period. The exception will be across western
Lake Superior this afternoon and evening, where funneling southwest
winds between the Keweenaw and Thunder Bay will cause some localized
wind gusts 20 to 25 knots. Otherwise, expect wildfire smoke to cause
poor air quality at least through Saturday. There will be some
chances of thunder next week, though model guidance is widely spread
in the timing and location details at this time.

&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Upper Michigan...
None.
Lake Superior...
None.
Lake Michigan...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GS
LONG TERM...BW/GS
AVIATION...GS
MARINE...BW