886
FXUS63 KMQT 092228
AFDMQT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
528 PM EST Sat Nov 9 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Rain returns tonight and Sunday.

- Blustery northwest winds on Monday, especially over the Keweenaw
  and eastern Lake Superior shoreline areas where gusts of
  40-45 mph are likely (70+%).

- High-end gales up to 45 knots are expected over mainly the
  eastern half of Lake Superior Monday. A Gale Watch has been
  issued.

- After a brief period of light lake effect rain and snow Monday,
  the next system brings rain Tuesday night into Wednesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THIS EVENING/...
Issued at 343 PM EST Sat Nov 9 2024

Main focus for the remainder of today will be on an approaching
closed low that is currently spinning over the Central Plains per
latest water vapor imagery/surface analysis. Clouds are already
beginning to fill in across Upper Michigan and will continue to
do so through the evening as that low moves closer. Otherwise
though, it will be a quiet and dry late afternoon/evening with
temperatures across the area generally in the upper 40s with a
few reports in the low 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 326 PM EST Sat Nov 9 2024

The extended period is overall fairly wet with rain expected most
days except Tuesday and possibly late next week. Meanwhile, above
normal temperatures are predicted to dominate the next several days,
although there is a chance for some snow showers to get to the
surface come Monday behind a Clipper low. In addition, expect windy
conditions Monday behind the Clipper, with winds gusting up to 30
mph across most of the area, but getting up to 40 to possibly 45 mph
over the Keweenaw.

Light rain showers return to our area tonight as a 1007 mb shortwave
low lifts from the Central Plains tonight through the Mackinac
Straits by late Sunday. While not much rainfall is expected
(generally only a few tenths), the rain showers do look to impact
the whole of the U.P. tonight through Sunday. With the cloud cover
overhead, expect more mild temperatures tonight with lows getting
into the upper 30s in the interior areas to lower to mid 40s by the
Great Lakes. As for highs, with cool air aloft from the low and rain
showers occurring throughout the day, expect the max temperatures to
be limited to the mid 40s to around 50. However, some of the CAMs do
show a reduced chance for rain showers during the morning over the
central and east; therefore, your Sunday morning drives over the
central and east are less likely to have active rain showers,
although you will still see wet roads from the rainfall that occurs
tonight. The rainfall associated with the low lifts out of the area
Sunday evening as said low continues towards Quebec.

However, expect the precipitation to return early Monday morning as
a Clipper low currently over the British Columbia/Alberta border
digs along the northern Lake Superior shoreline Monday morning. Snow
could mix in with the rain showers to start out over the northwest
snow belts Monday, before transitioning mainly to all snow and
graupel later in the day before ending by the evening over the east
as high pressure quickly rushes in from the west. Expect cool high
temperatures Monday, with mainly areas in the west and north central
struggling to get above 40. In addition to the lake-effect showers,
expect breezy conditions across the U.P. given the strength of the
cold air advection behind the Clipper low, with northwesterly gusts
up to 30 mph seen across much of Upper Michigan. However, the
Keweenaw may see winds up to 40 to 45 mph at times Monday given that
Lake Superior has less friction and a low level jet will be mixed
down to the surface; we may need to consider a Wind Advisory for the
Keweenaw as the NBM has up to a 40 to 50% chance of winds up to 45
mph. The precipitation and winds die-down Monday evening as the
Clipper continues towards the St. Lawrence River and high pressure
ridging moves overtop us. The clearing skies from the ridging should
bring lows down into the 20s Monday night.

Expect Tuesday to be our dry day as the ridging continues into
eastern Canada. With warm air advection and sunny skies occurring
throughout the daylight hours, expect the highs to get into the mid
to upper 40s. As a low lifts from the Northern Plains into northern
Ontario Tuesday night into Wednesday, expect the winds to begin
increasing from the south, with more breezy conditions being seen on
Wednesday as the cold front of the low moves through. Again, not
much in the way of precipitation is expected late Tuesday night
through Wednesday, just some light rainfall across the area. To end
out the week, large-scale ridging moves over the Central U.S. as
deep lows set up over the West and East Coasts. While this will set
us up for some drier and warmer weather, it is possible that we may
see a shortwave or two ride along the ridge and bring additional
precipitation to our area late in the extended period.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 527 PM EST Sat Nov 9 2024

VFR conditions will prevail into tonight at all TAF sites.  However,
there will be gradual deterioration to MVFR and then IFR as cigs
fall and rain accompanies an approaching low.  Expect no improvement
through the end of this TAF period.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 326 PM EST Sat Nov 9 2024

Southerly winds of 20 to 25 knots continue over the eastern lake and
near Isle Royale the rest of this afternoon through this evening
before becoming 20 knots or less late tonight as the pressure
gradient over the lake weakens. The light winds continue as a low
from the Central Plains lifts through the Straits of Mackinac Sunday
evening, before a Clipper low immediately behind it brings west to
northwest gales of 35 to possibly even 45 knots across the lake
Monday, mainly over the east half. These gales end from west to east
Monday afternoon and evening as ridging quickly moves in from the
west; winds become 20 knots or less again by around around midnight
Tuesday morning. The light winds continue until Tuesday afternoon,
when a low lifting from the Northern Plains into northern Ontario
has it`s cold front approach the region from our west. Southerly
winds will steadily increase Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday
night, with southerly winds of 25 to 30 knots expected around the
time the front rolls through late Tuesday night into Wednesday;
there is about a 10 to 20% chance for gales to 35 knots around this
time according to the NBM. After the cold front rolls through,
expect the winds to weaken to around 20 knots or less as we head
into Thursday as large-scale ridging moves over the Central U.S.

&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Upper Michigan...
None.
Lake Superior...
  Gale Watch from late Sunday night through Monday afternoon for
     LSZ162-240>242-263.

  Gale Watch from Monday morning through Monday afternoon for
     LSZ243>248-264-265.

  Gale Watch from Monday morning through Monday evening for
     LSZ249>251-266-267.

Lake Michigan...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TDUD
LONG TERM...TAP
AVIATION...07
MARINE...TAP