438
FXUS63 KMQT 190731
AFDMQT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
331 AM EDT Sun Jul 19 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Smoke from upstream wildfires will continue to impact Upper
  Michigan. Air Quality Alerts remain in effect through today.
  Consider limiting strenuous outdoor activity or remaining
  indoors when possible.

- A few showers and thunderstorms are possible over the western
  half of the UP tonight.

- Strong to severe thunderstorms capable of producing damaging
  winds and large hail are anticipated Monday PM. Those with
  outdoor plans should continue to monitor forecast updates.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 330 AM EDT Sun Jul 19 2026

Early morning GOES satellite imagery reveals mostly clear skies
under sprawling surface high pressure stop the UP save for some
patchy stratus/fog. Dense wildfire smoke and patchy fog is leading
to localized visibility reductions as noted by area webcams and ASOS
sensors. Mostly dry weather is expected today under the influence of
high pressure, however, cant rule out some showers and thunderstorms
reaching the lake and UP as midlevel ascent increases ahead of a
deepening trough. SPC has introduced a General Thunder outlook for
the UP with the far eastern edge of a Marginal Risk (level 1/5)
nibbling onto the western lake and Ironwood. The main concern for
this forecast period present`s itself on Monday as a vigorous
shortwave dives southeast from Canadian Prairies through the Upper
Great Lakes. Warm air advection driven showers and thunderstorms
will likely be occuring during the morning and afternoon hours
Monday before a second round of storms sweeps the area along and
ahead of the cold front during the evening to overnight hours of
early Tuesday morning. CAM ensembles suggest airmass recovery will
occur Monday afternoon, priming the environment for strong to severe
storms capable of producing damaging winds and large hail. At this
time, SPC has maintained a Slight Risk (level 2 of 5) for the entire
UP and Lake Superior, and included an Enhanced Risk (level 3 of 5)
extending from IA/WI upwards into the western and south-central UP.
Those with outdoor plans need to monitor forecast trends as well as
have a way to receive a warning when they are subsequently issued.

Expect cooler conditions on Tuesday into Wednesday behind the cold
front that will sweep through the area Monday night. High
temperatures will be mainly in the 70s with 60s possible close to
Lake Superior. It will be breezy on Tuesday with north winds
potentially gusting to 30 mph over the land areas and over 45 mph
over the Great Lakes. Swim conditions will likely become dangerous
on Tuesday for the Lake Superior beaches of Marquette and Alger
County. Smoke could also increase again with the northerly flow.

Winds become southerly for Thursday through Saturday with highs in
the upper 70s to low 80s as ridging builds into the central U.S. and
into the western Great Lakes. There is a chance for showers and
thunderstorms on Friday night as a shortwave rounds the northern
periphery of the ridge.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 121 AM EDT Sun Jul 19 2026

Canadian wildfires continue to impact all TAF sites with FU/HZ
through much of the 6z TAF period. Vis improvement will be slow this
morning out of IFR, reaching VFR by late afternoon as southwesterly
winds lift lingering FU/HZ to the northeast. SAW is the exception
where FG/BR lowers vis to LIFR, maybe even VLIFR (35-50% chance)
ahead of sunrise. Chances for TSRA were high enough at the end of
the period at CMX to be included in a PROB30 group.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 330 AM EDT Sun Jul 19 2026

Winds largely <15 kts are expected today under the influence of
expansive surface high pressure. Southwest winds will increase on
Monday to 15-25kt as a storm system approaches the lake. A few
showers and thunderstorms are possible tonight in the western half.
Some of the thunderstorms on Monday could be strong to severe with
large hail and high winds. Smoke will continue to reduce visiblity
though some improvement may occur with the stronger southerly flow
pushing smoke back north.

A cold front will sweep across the lake Monday night with gusty
northwest winds developing on Tuesday as low pressure deepens over
Ontario. NBM continues to show likely gales (50-75% chance) over the
eastern half of the lake on Tuesday. The Euro ens has come into
better agreement over the last 24 hours, now highlighting a 50-70%
chance for isolated gales east of the Keweenaw Peninsula. Given the
strong pressure rises of 6-7 mb/6hr and modest cold air advection
for this time of year, the stronger winds seem plausible. Continue
to monitor the forecast over the next few days as details become
clearer.

&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Upper Michigan...
None.
Lake Superior...
  Dense Smoke Advisory until 8 AM EDT /7 AM CDT/ Monday for
     LSZ240>251-263>267.

Lake Michigan...
  Dense Smoke Advisory until 8 AM EDT Monday for LMZ221-248-250.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BW/NL
AVIATION...77
MARINE...BW/NL