952
FXUS63 KMQT 101919
AFDMQT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
319 PM EDT Thu Sep 10 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A quick round of showers and storms moves through Friday
  night into early Saturday morning.

- The potential for active weather returns early next week as a
  Colorado Low moves towards the region.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 319 PM EDT Thu Sep 10 2026

Afternoon GOES satellite imagery reveals mostly sunny skies across
the northern Great Lakes and Upper Midwest aside from diurnal cu
locally seen in the interior UP. With ridging aloft holding through
tonight, clear skies should allow temps to fall into the low 50s and
upper 40s for much of the interior while the lakeshores remain in
the 50s. A breakdown of the ridge aloft to more zonal flow and mid-
level troughing shapes up across the central CONUS tomorrow morning,
developing a surface low in the northern Plains and increasing the
region pressure gradient across the Great Lakes. Southerly return
flow will make more another warm summer day with highs near 80 (a
bit cooler near northern Lake Michigan). A cold front finally
reaches the western UP late tomorrow night, pressing into the
eastern 2/3rds by Saturday morning. Showers and a few thunderstorms
are expected along the frontal boundary, but with waning
instability, no strong to severe storms are anticipated. HREF QPF
probs for only a 0.10" are nothing to write home about, only peaking
at 50-70% in a stretch from Ironwood to Houghton. Eastward, light
rain amounts a tenth of an inch or less is expected with showers
dissipating past the central UP. Modest pressure rises and cold air
advection will make for a windy but dry day on Saturday. Cant rule
out some scattered lake effect rain showers or at least clouds on
Sunday as 850 mb temps fall below 5C (0-2C if you`re the Canadian or
GFS) while the lake average surface temp sits at ~17C.

Looking into early next week, ensembles continue to hone in on a
deepening trough over the Rockies ejecting a Colorado Low in the
vicinity of the Great Lakes. There remains considerable disagreement
between each ensemble and their individual ensemble members
regarding the track and strength of the surface low pressure. Given
a broad feature placement north and west of the UP, considerable
moisture (PWATS near 1.75-2", the 95-99th percentile of
climatology), if the best QPF axis winds up in our neck of the woods
then meaningful rainfall could be expected. The NBM suggests a 60-
80% chance for QPF >0.5" by Tuesday morning, however, this may be
high biased as individual ensembles and the LREF barely scrape 20-
40%.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 126 PM EDT Thu Sep 10 2026

VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period. High pressure
over the Great Lakes will shift east tonight as a surface trough
approaches from the plains. This will bring a shift in the winds to
the south tonight along with increasing wind speeds by morning.
Daytime heating will begin to mix down some of the stronger winds
Friday by mid-morning, with gusts to around 25kt expected.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 319 PM EDT Thu Sep 10 2026

Lake Superior: Winds <15 kts tonight begin to ramp up early Friday
morning as a pair of surface low pressure systems influence the
region through the day. Gusts 20-30 kts will be common lake wide
much of the day and into Saturday. A few isolated gales to 35 kts
may be seen in the open waters of the east-central lake and where
funneling occurs close to Isle Royale. Additionally, a showers and
thunderstorms are likely in the western half of the lake early
Saturday along the system`s cold front. Winds then turn westerly
behind this front Saturday morning. Modest pressure rises and cold
air advection will keep gusty winds around for another day, reaching
to near gales in and around the Keweenaw (40-60% chance) in the
afternoon. NW winds linger through Sunday, gusting 20-25 kts in the
east half. More active marine weather returns early next week in the
Monday-Tuesday timeframe as operation models hone in on a deepening
low pressure system that works north of the lake. Ensemble
probabilities for southerly and western gales associated with this
system are reaching 60-80%, however, there remains uncertainty
regarding the gust potential of southerly gales given the warm lake
temps and low level stability. Also, the track of this system, which
is not fully agreed upon, will ultimately inform pressure
falls/rises and cold air advection necessary for gusts 40-45 kts.

Northern Green Bay and northwestern Lake Michigan: Breezy N to
NWerlies near 15 kts fall off tonight before increasing again
tomorrow morning as the area is influence by low pressure systems to
the north and southwest. S to SW gusts 20-30 kts will become common
tomorrow afternoon and linger through Saturday afternoon. Behind a
cold front, gusts diminish between 10-15 kts, remaining out of the
NW through Sunday. Active marine weather returns early next week
with the passage of a potentially strong low pressure system to the
north. This, in turn, will increase winds to near or above gales in
the Monday-Tuesday timeframe.

&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Upper Michigan...
  Beach Hazards Statement until 5 PM EDT this afternoon for
     MIZ006.

Lake Superior...
None.
Lake Michigan...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BW
AVIATION...NL
MARINE...BW