147
FXUS63 KMQT 102346
AFDMQT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
646 PM EST Mon Nov 10 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Lake effect snow showers shift to the eastern UP and diminish
  tonight.

- A round of light snow moves in from the west late tonight,
  moving across the east on Tuesday. Trailing lake effect rain
  and snow showers are expected Tuesday into Thursday over the
  west-northwest wind snow belts. No impacts are expected.

- A Gale Watch has been hoisted for much of Lake Superior
  Tuesday night through Wednesday.

- A gradual warm up to above normal temperatures is expected by
  this weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 353 PM EST Mon Nov 10 2025

Afternoon GOES water vapor imagery and RAP analysis show the
upstream ridge shifting out over the Plains with surface high
pressure beneath it, reaching into the Upper Great Lakes. A deep
trough is over the Great lakes, reaching down into the southeastern
U.S., resulting in the current cold northerly flow over the CWA.
Radar coverage still is lit up over the east, but LES shower
coverage dwindled in the west where moisture and inversion heights
have already begun to diminish. This trend will gradually continue
into tonight from west to east as a warmer airmass moves in from the
west, the profile continues to dry out at low levels, and winds
shift west then southwest ahead of the next disturbance. Opted to
let the current winter weather hazards end as planned at 7 PM EST.
Additional snow accumulations broadly will hold less than 2" this
afternoon and evening, but a few spots may get up to 3-4" between
Skandia and Wetmore.

Isentropic ascent and warm air advection support some light snow
showers progressing from west to east over the UP late tonight
through Tuesday. Unimpressive moisture and weak forcing limits
accumulations: QPF struggles to reach a hundreths or two until late
in the day Tuesday when a shortwave and associated surface low
diving southeast over northern Ontario catch up. This provides
better forcing for the showers now over the east half in the
afternoon on Tuesday, but also reinvigorates marginal lake effect
precip out of the northwest. By this point, some rain showers look
to begin mixing in as temps eclipse freezing and not much moisture
is present in the DGZ. In the wake of the low`s frontal boundary
Tuesday night through Thursday, winds gradually shift westerly as
high pressure over the Plains shifts east. Pressure rises and cold
air advection support 20-30 mph gusts on Wednesday with 30-40 mph in
the Keweenaw and near Lake Superior. The colder airmass supports
additional lake effect rain and snow showers over the northwest
becoming west wind snow belts.

The gradual warming trend continues into the weekend as the ridging
over the central CONUS is expected to encroach into the region.
Highs reaching near 50 with lows around freezing are expected
Saturday and Saturday night. The next widespread precip will likely
(50-70% chance) be rain with a low pressure system this weekend, but
details on system exact track and timing are still a bit blurry.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 646 PM EST Mon Nov 10 2025

Expect lingering MVFR cigs at Upper Michigan terminals to lift to
VFR by 03z this evening as lake effect snow showers continue to
dwindle and move off to the east. Mainly VFR then expected for the
duration of the TAF period. A weak system will bring around a 30%
chance for light snow showers to KIWD and KCMX 06-10z. Winds
increase out of the SSW Tue morning, gusting to around 20 kt through
the afternoon. Chances for light rain and snow showers increase
again near the end of the period, bringing chances for MVFR cigs
back to KCMX and KSAW towards 00z Wed.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 353 PM EST Mon Nov 10 2025

North to northwest winds of 10-25 kts, strongest over the east half
of the lake, taper off through this evening. Winds back southwest by
Tuesday as high pressure condenses over the southeastern U.S. and a
trough approaches from the west. This results in southwest winds
increasing to 20-30 kts from west to east late tonight through
Tuesday morning. Winds veer west behind a frontal boundary, and with
the help of cold air filtering over the lake and steady pressure
rises, remain elevated in the 20-30 kt range Tuesday night through
much of Thursday. Opted to hoist a Gale Watch for most of the lake
from 1 AM Wednesday to 1 AM Thursday EST as probabilities of at least
35 kts are between 45-75%.

By Wednesday afternoon, waves over the west half will be 4-8 ft and
8-13 ft over the east (highest north of Grand Marais, MI). Winds are
expected to settle below gale by Thursday afternoon and below 20 kts
across the lake by late Thursday night as weak high pressure returns
to the Upper Great Lakes. Waves fall below 4 ft by Friday morning.
Winds mainly hold below 20 kts through Friday, but pick up over the
weekend with the next low pressure system tracking through the
region. There remains some spread on the track of this system, but
there is a 15-30% chance of gales to 35 kts on Saturday over the
north central portion of the lake; 15-30% probabilities become more
widespread on Sunday.

&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Upper Michigan...
  Winter Storm Warning until 7 PM EST this evening for MIZ005-
     006.

  Winter Weather Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for MIZ007-
     013-085.

Lake Superior...
  Gale Watch from late Tuesday night through late Wednesday
     night for LSZ241>251-263>267.

Lake Michigan...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...77
AVIATION...CB
MARINE...77