504
FXUS63 KMQT 241647
AFDMQT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
1247 PM EDT Sat May 24 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Some scattered rain showers are possible this afternoon and
  evening, mainly in the south and near Wisconsin.

- Areas of frost are possible tonight into Sunday morning across
  much of the interior.

- Cooler than normal temperatures trend upwards this weekend and
  into next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1243 PM EDT Sat May 24 2025

Noon RAP analysis and GOES Satellite imagery reveal a shortwave
trough axis extending east to west across northern Lake Superior. At
the surface, ~1024mb high pressure is nosing into the region from
Manitoba/Ontario. Day Cloud Phase Satellite is highlighting
developing cu/tcu across the west-central UP and some light
reflectivity finally showing up on radar along the UP/WI border
closer to Gogebic and Dickinson counties. Light showers across this
area will be the only real weather "concern" of the day as model
soundings show very meager elevated instability <150 j/kg and light
N/NW flow up the boundary layer through the evening. Closer to
the lakeshores, stable flow off Lake Superior will keep the
northern tier dry. Any showers that develop this afternoon and
evening should diminish around sunset with waning instability.

Later tonight and into tomorrow morning, patchy frost is likely to
develop across the interior as overnight lows cool towards freezing.
This may be conditional on the amount of clearing and radiational
cooling we achieve. Frost Advisories are anticipated, so if you have
any sensitive plants be sure to bring them inside or cover as needed!

Rounding out the weekend, the aforementioned shortwave axis / vort
lobe pivots south and east across the UP into the Lower Lakes,
kicking off some light showers across the far eastern UP and
northern Lake Superior. No more than a few hundreths of light rain
is expected. Look for highs in the low to mid 60s across the
interior and 50s nearest the lakeshores.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1243 PM EDT Sat May 24 2025

Mostly quiet weather kicks off the start of the work week under sfc
high pressure placed solidly atop the Upper Great Lakes region
Monday morning. Rhs could fall into the 30-40% (possibly 20-30%
interior west) Monday given ample afternoon mixing, so cannot rule
out some limited fire weather concerns, however, east winds will
generally be light (10-15 mph gusts). High pressure slowly meanders
south and east, keeping Tuesday dry as well. Precip chances return
late Tuesday through Wednesday as a developing cutoff upper low
phases with troughing emerging out of the Front Range and Central
Plains. This rotates an embedded shortwave and weak sfc low across
the OH River Valley northeast into the Lower Great Lakes Wednesday.
Deterministic guidance is hit or miss on whether or not all of the
UP will see any light rain showers with the latest Euro a bit more
favorable and the GFS/NBM largely keeping the precip shield further
S and E. As of now, the s-central and east appear to have the
greatest chance for measurable precip into Thursday.

Looking further into the following weekend, deterministic models
struggle to agree on precip development along a southward moving
cold front on Friday, however, their ensemble counterparts are in
good agreement on ridging/positive height anomalies building across
the west and much of central Canada, pointing to increasing
likelihood of a generally quiet long range forecast.

Additionally, a gradual warming trend is in store through the week
with high temperatures returning to the 60s and low to mid 70s,
coolest near the lakeshores.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 749 AM EDT Sat May 24 2025

VFR is expected at IWD through the duration of the 12Z TAF period
while CMX/SAW initially start in MVFR, then improve to VFR this
afternoon. There is a slight chance for IFR (25% chance) to even
briefly LIFR (15% chance) cigs at SAW this morning, but left out of
the TAF as timing of lower cigs and overall confidence in those
restrictions was too low...future amendments may be needed.
Otherwise winds remain light with gusts holding 13 kts or less
during the day, becoming variable/calm tonight with high pressure
extending overhead.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1243 PM EDT Sat May 24 2025

North to northwest flow persists over central and eastern Lake
Superior at least through the weekend. Expect a more easterly flow
regime in the western waters during this holiday weekend time
period. Winds remain light through the weekend and into next week.
As a low pressure system lifts through the Lower Midwest Tuesday and
into mid-next week, winds across all waters will shift to east-
northeasterly. With that weak low pressure shifting into the Ohio
River Valley by Thursday of next week, another wind shift back to
westerly is likely.

&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Upper Michigan...
None.
Lake Superior...
None.
Lake Michigan...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BW
LONG TERM...BW
AVIATION...Jablonski
MARINE...NLy