875
FXUS63 KMQT 042106
AFDMQT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
406 PM EST Tue Nov 4 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A brief dry period today gives way to rounds of wet weather
  the rest of the week, with measurable snow possible into the
  weekend.

- Temperatures hold slightly above normal most of the work week,
  becoming cooler than normal by the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 405 PM EST Tue Nov 4 2025

Dry weather continues the rest of today as weak high pressure
ridging weakens overhead from the 1025 mb parent high pressure in
the southeastern U.S. Clouds increase ahead of ripples in the zonal
flow over the Northern Plains. Highs this afternoon will be in the
50s with drier RH values in the upper 20s to mid 40s. Winds keep
their downtrend into tonight as they shift more southerly as surface
ridging weakens.

An elongated shortwave currently analyzed along the international
border with the Northern plains will deepen through Wednesday as it
pivots southeast over the Great Lakes. This brings a deepening
surface low with it over Wisconsin tonight and Lower Michigan on
Wednesday. CAMs are picking up on a band of rain showers along the
low level f-gen tracking east over the UP late tonight with this
system. Some lake enhanced becoming lake effect showers are also
possible (40-60% chance) as 850 mb temps fall to -2C to -4C by
Wednesday morning. The antecedent dry airmass will limit the precip
to start, but amounts of 0.10-0.30" are expected save for the south
central where dry to a few hundreths is forecast.

Breezy winds follow in the wake of the system on Wednesday with a
strengthening pressure gradient, pressure rises, and colder airmass
descending overhead. Widespread northwest winds between 10-20 mph
are expected with gusts between 20-30 mph. There is a 20-40% chance
for gusts up to 40 mph in the Keweenaw and 30-50% chance near
eastern Lake Superior. 850 mb temps fall further on Wednesday to
between -6C and -9C by the end of the day, supporting a transition
over to lake effect in the wake of the low pressure system.
Meanwhile, a ridge begins to build over the Plains with surface high
pressure inching toward the UP.

After ridging builds in briefly for Wednesday night/Thursday,
another clipper system looks to bring light precipitation Thursday
night into Friday. In the wake of this system, there is increasing
consensus that an extension of the Hudson Bay upper low will dip
south into the Great Lakes, likely resulting in the coldest airmass
of the season thus far. The NBM currently reflects this with highs
in the upper 20s to 30s and lows in the upper teens to low 30s this
weekend into Monday night. With 850mb temps dropping to -10C to -14C
and some solutions showing as low as -16C, delta-Ts will be more
than sufficient for north to northwest lake effect precip during
this period...initially rain/snow mix transitioning over to mostly
snow by Sunday/Monday. Another high pressure looks to follow early
next week diminishing PoPs, but confidence is low on the tack and
influence of this feature at this time.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 115 PM EST Tue Nov 4 2025

VFR conditions to continue into tonight with some lingering breezy
southwest winds at CMX in excess of 12 kts, gusting to 20 kts.
However, as a clipper system approaches the area, mid to high level
clouds will continue to increase through this evening with
precipitation chances also entering the TAF sites in the Wed 03-06Z
time frame from west to east. At that point, flight conditions will
deteriorate to MVFR with a short period of IFR possible around
daybreak tomorrow morning. Conditions should improve, though, by mid-
morning tomorrow.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 405 PM EST Tue Nov 4 2025

After a brief period of winds less than 20 kts tonight, winds
quickly increase behind a strengthening low pressure on Wednesday.
Widespread northwest winds are expected between 20-30 kts with
strongest winds over the east, particularly near the southern
shores. Latest probabilistic guidance for gales of at least 35 kts
shows 20-60%, highest along the southern shores between Au Train and
Whitefish Point, decreasing as you move away from those nearshore
zones. Maintained the Gale Watch, adding LSZ249 and extending it to
3Z Thursday since confidence in Gales occuring is increasing, but
the areal extent is not as clear. There is around a 30% chance of
gales returning Friday into Friday night as an even colder airmass
descends over the lakes.

&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Upper Michigan...
None.
Lake Superior...
  Gale Watch from Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday evening
     for LSZ249>251-266-267.

Lake Michigan...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...77
AVIATION...TDUD
MARINE...77