526
FXUS63 KMQT 212319
AFDMQT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
719 PM EDT Tue Jul 21 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Breezy conditions persist through the first half of the night,
  resulting in hazardous swim conditions on the Lake Superior
  beaches.

- Generally dry weather is expected the rest of the work week,
  though the UP may be grazed by showers Thursday night into
  Friday morning. Our next rain chances will return this
  weekend.

- Cooler temperatures midweek will be followed by a warming
  trend into the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 308 PM EDT Tue Jul 21 2026

Early afternoon RAP analysis shows the UP in between deep 992mb low
pressure near Hudson Bay and 1022mb surface high pressure sprawled
out over the Northern Plains. Though water vapor imagery indicates
rather dry midlevel air, plenty of low cloud cover remains over the
UP, aided by an unseasonably cool airmass moving over the lake and
upsloping into the western and central UP. This helped to kick off
light rain showers over the area earlier today, but rain showers and
sprinkles are tapering off this afternoon. Winds remain elevated
this afternoon behind a cold front, with temperatures already
falling into the upper 50s over the northern UP and ranging in the
lower to mid 60s to the south. Temperatures turn much cooler tonight
than in previous days, bottoming out in a refreshing 45-55F range
(coolest in the interior-central) while skies gradually clear out.
Under high pressure, Wednesday looks to be an entirely pleasant, if
unseasonably cool, summer day with highs ranging in the upper 60s
and lower 70s under sunny skies. NW winds start off breezy, gusting
to around 20-25mph over the eastern half of the UP, but fall back
during the afternoon as our pressure gradient slackens. Expect
another pleasantly cool nights as lows range in the mid 50s to mid
50s.

However, as the high pressure flattens and progresses east through
the Lower Great Lakes into New England for Thursday into Friday,
expect the temperatures to begin climbing back up to above normal
(think high temperatures in the upper 70s to mid 80s). As this
occurs, a weak ridge-rider may graze the UP with some rain showers
and even a rumble of thunder Thursday night into Friday morning.
Better troughing arrives Saturday as low pressure moves through
Ontario, eventually dragging a cold front through the UP Saturday
afternoon and evening. Ahead of this, temperatures climb even
higher, possibly reaching the upper 80s in our typically warmer
southerly downsloping areas in the western UP and along Superior.
Behind this low, upper-level northwest flow looks to keep
temperatures somewhat moderated over us into early next week.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 718 PM EDT Tue Jul 21 2026

A high pressure settling southeast over the Midwest brings drier air
into the region and slackens winds. This allows for variable winds
at IWD tonight and light northwest winds at CMX/SAW around 7-10 kts.
Low VFR cigs scatter out tonight becoming mostly clear by Wednesday
morning. Scattered clouds return during the day tomorrow as winds
remain around 10 kts out of the northwest to west, but VFR prevails.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 308 PM EDT Tue Jul 21 2026

A steep pressure gradient and cold air advection over the lake
continues to lead to blustery NW winds this afternoon, with gales to
40kts over the eastern half while gusts come in at around 20-30kts
to the west. Winds fall below gale-force around 00Z, then continue
to gradually decrease tonight into Wednesday, coming in at around 15-
20kts while shifting over to the W and then SW Wednesday afternoon.
SW winds pick up to around 20-25kts across the lake on Thursday and
Friday as the high pressure flattens out and heads east towards New
England for the latter portions of the work week; strengthening
troughing moving in from the west may be enough to have a few
showers and thunderstorms develop over the lake Thursday night into
Friday. As a shortwave low approaches for this weekend, expect winds
to further increase Friday night, potentially getting up to 30 knots
or even low-end gales to 35 knots by Saturday morning (up to a 40%
chance for low-end gales). In addition, rain and thunderstorm
chances increase throughout the day on Saturday as the shortwave
passes by.

&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Upper Michigan...
  Beach Hazards Statement until 10 PM EDT this evening for
     MIZ005-006.

Lake Superior...
  Gale Warning until 8 PM EDT this evening for LSZ244>251-
     265>267.

Lake Michigan...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...LC
AVIATION...77
MARINE...LC