574
FXUS63 KMQT 172323
AFDMQT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
723 PM EDT Thu Jul 17 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Slightly cooler than normal temperatures continue the rest of
  the week, with highs generally being in the 60s to lower 70s.

- Rain chances return late Friday and remain until early
  Saturday. Some non-severe thunderstorms are possible.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 140 PM EDT Thu Jul 17 2025

Satellite imagery shows a scattered diurnal cu field over the area
early this afternoon outside of the areas impacted by the Lake
Superior lake breeze (which are cloud-free). While the sunny skies
have helped temperatures be a bit warmer in comparison to yesterday,
with remnant cool air aloft still leaving the area, highs this
afternoon are still projected to only get into the 60s for most of
the area, with maybe a spot or two getting to around 70 (such as
Iron Mountain). Otherwise, the generally north to northeasterly flow
across the area is expected to continue dwindling this afternoon as
a weakening omega block moves overhead tonight. With skies remaining
clear tonight, expect lows to plummet into the mid 40s in the
interior areas.

We see temperatures close to around normal by Friday as warm air
advection slowly works its way into the Upper Midwest the rest of
today through Friday ahead of an incoming low-level disturbance from
the Northern Plains. While shear associated with disturbance looks
pretty strong, given that not much CAPE is expected within the
atmosphere and the synoptic forcing seems pretty weak, expect only a
few showers and maybe an embedded thunderstorm or two to move into
the western half of the U.P. by Friday afternoon as the disturbance
approaches our area. While cloud cover will build throughout the
day, the slight warm air advection should bring high temperatures
into the lower 70s across most of the area Friday.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 140 PM EDT Thu Jul 17 2025

Rain showers and a few non-severe thunderstorms continue across the
area Friday night as the aforementioned disturbance phases with a
descending shortwave over northern Ontario and a shortwave moving
through the Plains into the Great Lakes. As phasing occurs over the
Great Lakes and the low heads towards New England, expect the
showers and storms to pull away from the U.P. Saturday, with most of
the area becoming dry by late in the morning/early in the afternoon.
While temperatures don`t appear to be as cool this weekend in
comparison to yesterday, with some Canadian air being brought into
the region by a high pressure extending through the Plains and
Canadian Prairies, expect temperatures to max-out into the lower 70s
Saturday and 70s on Sunday afternoons. With the high projected to
move over us the rest of the weekend through early next week, expect
conditions to remain dry across the area until the middle of next
week; temperatures early next week are expected to be around normal.

While model spread increases by the middle of next week, it does
look like our rain chances could increase around the next Tuesday
and onward time period as the high pressure leaves to the east and
troughing over the central U.S. towards the Upper Midwest. While I`m
fairly confident (40-60%) that we will see some rain by the middle
of next week given the pattern setup, confidence on the timing of
when exactly this happens is next to 0 as it will depend on
shortwave energy riding up towards the top of the departing ridge.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 723 PM EDT Thu Jul 17 2025

VFR prevails through the forecast period with high pressure today
through early Friday. Midlevel cloud cover spreads in from west to
east along with a chance for some rain showers Friday afternoon.
Otherwise, expect winds to remain light and variable overnight,
turning over to the SW Friday.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 259 PM EDT Thu Jul 17 2025

As high pressure continues over us the rest of today through
tonight, winds have slackened to 20 knots or less across Lake
Superior. Even though we may a couple of shortwaves over the next
several days, given that the shortwaves look to be fairly weak, the
light winds look to continue over the lake for the rest of this week
through the first half of next week. Nevertheless, we could still
see showers and a few embedded storms return late Friday through the
first half of Saturday, especially near the southern shoreline where
more convective potential energy is expected (only a couple hundred
J/kg at most though, which is not much). Thunderstorm chances also
could appear again by the middle of next week as troughing tries to
move in from the Central Plains.

&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Upper Michigan...
None.
Lake Superior...
None.
Lake Michigan...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TAP
LONG TERM...TAP
AVIATION...LC
MARINE...TAP