306
FXUS63 KMQT 261142
AFDMQT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
742 AM EDT Sat Jul 26 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Warmer than normal temperatures and muggy dew points prevail through
  Monday. Sunday and Monday have a ~10% chance of heat indices
  of 100+ in the interior west.

- Shower and thunderstorms are possible late tonight (Keweenaw
  and west) through Monday. A few storms may be strong to severe
  Sunday (west) and may be accompanied by heavy rainfall.

- Cooler than normal temperatures and drier conditions are
  expected by the middle of next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 448 AM EDT Sat Jul 26 2025

Hot and muggy conditions will be the norm the next few days as a
broad dome of high pressure encompasses much of the eastern third of
the CONUS. Daytime highs today will climb into the mid to upper 80s
and even higher tomorrow in the low to mid 90s. Meanwhile, dew
points persistently remain in the 60s and 70s likely due to
evapotranspiration from corn across the Midwest, `corn sweat`. In
addition, air quality will remain poor at times due to the continued
Canadian wildfire smoke despite RAP-Smoke showing a gradual
diminishing trend in near-surface smoke today. So, with all of the
aforementioned factors, try to avoid strenuous exercise today and
tomorrow and stay hydrated and in air conditioning if possible.
Precipitation chances will be around 20% tonight for the Keweenaw
and west for any shortwaves skimming the ridge. Better chances will
arrive late Sunday, though, with a more robust shortwave. Therefore,
a Marginal Risk for strong to severe thunderstorms is in effect
across the western half of the UP with the main threats being
damaging winds and heavy rainfall.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 448 AM EDT Sat Jul 26 2025

In addition to the thunder threat, it will be hot and muggy, with
NBM dew points up to the mid 70s in some spots in the afternoon
Monday. Paired with high temperatures in the 80s to low 90s,
heat indices will be approaching 100, though the NBM only gives
around 10 percent chances of triple digit heat index at this
time. Low temperatures in the mid 60s will provide only a little
relief from the heat for those without air conditioning. Relief
from the heat will be coming in the mid to late week though as
the aforementioned Canadian troughs will combine and deepen over
Hudson Bay while ridging builds over the US Plains and Canadian
Rockies. This sets up cooler NW flow aloft over the UP which
will lead to temperatures near or below normal (highs in the mid
to lower 70s, lows around 50) Tuesday through the end of the
week. Being upstream of ridging will lead to dry weather for the
most part, though the cooler temperatures and surface moisture
that just wont quit will keep RHs from falling too far.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 741 AM EDT Sat Jul 26 2025

MVFR visibility restrictions should subside by mid-morning with a
return to VFR at that point. VFR will then be the prevailing flight
category for the duration of the TAF period. Southwest winds could
gust to 20 kts by this afternoon.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 134 PM EDT Fri Jul 25 2025

Light winds of 20 knots or less dominate the rest of this week
through early next week as high pressure ridging generally remains
over the region for the next several days, save for a shortwave
trough embedded within the ridge passing through the region Sunday.
This shortwave will bring thunderstorms to the lake, and a few may
bring severe weather (5-14 percent chance) and frequent lightning.

&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Upper Michigan...
None.
Lake Superior...
None.
Lake Michigan...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TDUD
LONG TERM...GS
AVIATION...TDUD
MARINE...GS/TAP