987
FXUS63 KMQT 080519
AFDMQT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
119 AM EDT Mon Jun 8 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Showers and thunderstorms return Monday afternoon, lifting
  west to east through early Tuesday.

- Temperatures trend hotter into the coming week, with
  widespread 90s possible mid to late week.

- Strong to severe thunderstorms are becoming more likely
  Wednesday. Continue to monitor the forecast for additional
  details.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 241 PM EDT Sun Jun 7 2026

Early afternoon GOES satellite water vapor imagery reveals Upper
Michigan directly underneath a ridge axis extending into the Hudson
Bay. Meanwhile, troughing encompasses much of the western CONUS and
a handful of shortwaves are lifting through the Southern Plains and
Middle MS Valley. Closer to home, surface high pressure extending
southwest from northern Quebec is showing its influence as mostly
clear skies are present atop Lake Superior and the UP save for some
diurnal cu short of developing lake breezes. Pleasant summer temps
in the 70s to low 80s are currently being observed inland while the
lakeshore adjacent locales remain a bit cooler, largely in the upper
50s to 60s. Temps fall back into the 50s tonight under partly clouds
skies.

Showers and a few thunderstorms return to the forecast tomorrow
afternoon through Tuesday as the aforementioned western troughing
inches east, drawing the MS Valley shortwaves north into the Upper
Midwest and Northern Great Lakes. Isentropic ascent in tandem with
ample moisture (PWATS 1.75-2", near the max of NAEFS PWAT climo for
this time of year) will be the driver for scattered shower/t-storm
development that slowly lifts west to east Monday PM through the
first half of Tuesday. CAM ensemble 24 QPF spread ending Tuesday
afternoon suggests mean amounts around 0.25", though given the
scattered nature of precip, high PWATs, and meager MUCAPE, thinking
that the precipitation footprint will not be so uniform across the
area. Areas that receiving multiple rounds of showers with embedded
thunderstorms could easily collect upwards of 1-1.5". No severe
storms are expected at this time. Precip should largely clear UP
come Tuesday afternoon, leaving room for a brief period of quiet
weather save for lake breeze driven afternoon precipitation
potential.

A more potent shortwave is forecast to lift through High Plains,
developing a strong surface cyclone that works into Ontario through
the afternoon, placing much of the Upper Midwest and Northern Great
Lakes in a ripe warm sector. Ensemble joint probability of at least
1500 j/kg of sfc based instability and deep layer shear >30 kts
reaches 40-50% across the western UP and Lake Superior Wed PM,
suggesting possible strong to severe storms capable of producing
large hail and gusty winds. Exceptionally high PWATs also suggest
the potential for flash flooding. At this time, SPC continues to
highlight a Day 4 severe risk for most of MN, WI, and the western
UP. Outdoor recreationists should continue to monitor forecast trends!

In addition to the increased moisture, warm temperatures, possibly
the warmest experienced so far this early summer, are expected into
the midweek. The NBM continues suggesting a high chance (60-90%) of
surface temps exceeding 90F across the interior west and central
Wednesday/Thursday. However, these temperatures may be inflated by
the ensemble`s bias correction, which was been warmer than observed
recently. Non-bias corrected ensembles such as the LREF, comprised
of other global ensembles, suggests a low <30% chance for sfc temps
reaching 90F this far north. Regardless, its becoming increasingly
likely that the warmest (and most humid) airmass of the warm
season so far is ahead this week, so individuals with heat
sensitivity should prepare as necessary!

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 118 AM EDT Mon Jun 8 2026

Low pressure will track through the region today bringing increasing
cloud cover and precipitation chances from west to east. This will
result in VFR conditions tonight, deteriorating through the day on
Monday at IWD and CMX. IFR conditions are expected at times by
afternoon as showers with embedded thunderstorms spread across the
western U.P. LIFR conditions could occur in the heavier showers and
thunderstorms.

For SAW, VFR conditions are expected through the afternoon, then
conditions will deteriorate after 00z Tuesday as showers move into
the area.

Winds will generally be from the southeast, less than 15kt.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 241 PM EDT Sun Jun 7 2026

Afternoon satellite trends reveal transient areas of marine fog
largely confined to the northern lake surrounding Isle Royale and
far western arm along the northshore down to Duluth. A few patches
remain along the southern lakeshore particularly in the Keweenaw
Bay, though suspect this will be dissipating shortly. Opting to let
the ongoing Dense Fog Advisories across the NW open waters and
Keweenaw Bay expire this afternoon given these trends. Going
forecast remains with overall light winds <25 kts lake wide into the
first half of the week. Some strong to severe thunderstorms are
possible Wednesday P.M., largely across the western half. Continue
to monitor the forecast for ongoing trends and updates. The second
half of the week is slated to be a bit windier as forecast guidance
continues to trend several systems into the Northern Great Lakes,
bringing additional chances for showers and thunderstorms as well as
periods of winds >25 kts.

&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Upper Michigan...
None.
Lake Superior...
None.
Lake Michigan...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BW
AVIATION...NL
MARINE...BW