445
FNUS73 KMPX 181511
FWSMPX

Spot Forecast for WR Rx...MN DNR
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
911 AM CST Mon Nov 18 2024

Forecast is based on ignition time of 1100 CST on November 18.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

Please contact our office if you have questions or concerns with
this forecast.

.DISCUSSION...
Widespread rain arrives this evening by 6 PM. Before then,
southeasterly winds will increase through the morning with speeds
of 10-15 mph by noon. Winds become easterly this afternoon with
gusts increasing to 20-30 mph through the afternoon, although the
strongest wind gusts will not develop until the rain begins. RH
values will remain fairly steady into the afternoon, with values
potentially falling as low as 40-45%.

.REST OF TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (30-40 percent) then becoming
                    cloudy (85-95 percent). Slight chance of rain
                    late in the afternoon. Chance of rain late in
                    the afternoon.
Temperature.........47 at ignition...Max 53.
RH..................65 percent at ignition...Min 52 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Winds southeast at 9 mph at
                    ignition...otherwise Southeast winds 9 to 10
                    mph with gusts to around 24 mph shifting to the
                    east 12 to 13 mph late in the afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor /12100 knot-ft/ at ignition. Max...fair
                    /19900 knot-ft/.
Mixing height.......1100 ft AGL at ignition...otherwise 1400 ft
                    AGL.
Transport winds.....Southeast 13 to 16 mph increasing to 14 to 18
                    mph late in the afternoon.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth at ignition...max 4.

TIME (CST)      11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P
Sky cover.......MCR PC  MC  MC  MC  CDY CDY CDY CDY CDY CDY CDY
Weather cov.....                    SCH CHC LKY DEF DEF DEF DEF
Weather type....                    RN  RN  RN  RN  RN  RN  RN
Tstm cov........
Temp............47  50  53  53  53  53  52  50  48  48  48  49
RH..............65  58  52  52  52  52  56  68  80  86  89  89
20 FT wind dir..SE  SE  SE  SE  E   E   E   E   E   E   E   E
20 FT wind spd..9   9   10  10  10  12  13  14  16  17  18  18
20 FT wind gust.14  16  18  21  24  20  21  28  32  37  37  35
Mix hgt (kft)...1.1 1.2 1.4 1.4 1.0 1.0 1.2 0.7 0.7 1.2 0.9 0.9
Transp wind dir.S   SE  SE  SE  E   SE  SE  E   E   E   E   E
Transp wind spd.13  14  16  16  14  16  18  22  25  28  29  31
Haines index....4   4   4   4   4   4   4   3   3   3   3   3

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Cloudy (95-100 percent). Rain likely early in
                    the evening, then rain.
Temperature.........Min 46.
RH..................Max 100 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........East winds 14 to 21 mph. Gusts up to 37 mph
                    increasing to 45 mph late in the evening, then
                    decreasing to 35 mph after 3 am.
Smoke dispersal.....Good (47000 knot-ft) early in the evening
                    decreasing to fair (14000 knot-ft) late in the
                    night.
Mixing height.......600 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....East 22 to 31 mph shifting to the southeast 25
                    to 26 mph after 3 am.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.

.TUESDAY...

Sky/weather.........Cloudy (95-100 percent). Rain early in the
                    morning, then rain likely early in the morning.
                    Chance of rain late in the morning.
Temperature.........Max 54.
RH..................Min 79 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southeast winds 13 to 16 mph shifting to the
                    southwest 17 to 20 mph late in the morning.
                    Gusts up to 32 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (12300 knot-ft) early in the morning
                    increasing to excellent (79100 knot-ft) in the
                    afternoon.
Mixing height.......3000 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....South 14 to 20 mph shifting to the west 23 to
                    30 mph late in the morning.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.

$$
Forecaster...Ahasic
Requested by...Nate R
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2426824.0/MPX
.DELDT 11/18/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL Nate.Renk@state.mn.us