899
FXUS63 KMPX 110026
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
726 PM CDT Tue Mar 10 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Rain changes over to snow this evening. Accumulations up to
  3-4" expected across western Wisconsin, 1-2" elsewhere.

- Another round of snow arrives late Thursday into Friday
  morning, mainly north of Interstate 94 with the heaviest
  amounts across western Wisconsin.

- Very gusty winds develop late Thursday night through Friday
  afternoon. Gusts over 50 mph are likely across western
  Minnesota, with 40-50 mph expected elsewhere.

- Snow, potentially heavy, still looks likely this weekend. Low
  confidence still on where the heaviest snow may fall.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 346 PM CDT Tue Mar 10 2026

Dry air has prevented any precipitation from reaching the ground
for most of the afternoon, but we`re starting to see more
reports of light snow across central Minnesota & drizzle/light
rain farther south. We`ll see the precipitation reaching the
surface become more widespread through the rest of the
afternoon & evening across central Minnesota and northwest
Wisconsin, & then through the night across southern Minnesota &
western Wisconsin. Accumulations of 1-2" are expected across
most of the area overnight through when the snow ends tomorrow
morning, although higher amounts of 3-4" are likely along &
north of Interstate 94 across western Wisconsin where a WInter
Weather Advisory is in effect. An area to watch through this
evening is with the ongoing band of light snow over central
Minnesota, it is expected to gradually move northwards, but we
may end up seeing Advisory-level snowfall amounts of 3+ inches
into central & west-central Minnesota if it remains relatively
stationary this afternoon & evening. The snow ends from west to
east through the early morning, & should only result in a snowy
& messy morning commute across western Wisconsin. Temperatures
remain cool Wednesday after the snow ends with highs around 40.

A potent system arrives late Thursday through Friday with a
pronounced shortwave trough progressing along the US/Canada
border & a surface low tracking from the Dakotas to the Great
lakes quickly deepening below 990 mb as it passes over our
area. A band of accumulating snow is expected on the north side
of this system, while rain falls to the south of its track.
It`s just a matter of the track of the surface low with
determining where we could see another 2-4" of snow or more
Thursday night into Friday. The majority of legacy deterministic
guidance keeps the snow off to our north across northern
Minnesota & Wisconsin, but it must be noted that the AIFS
deterministic & ensemble solutions bring accumulating snow
farther south to the Interstate 94 corridor of central
Minnesota & western Wisconsin, while also suggesting a signal
for more appreciable snowfall amounts of 3+ inches across
western Wisconsin.

In addition to the accumulating snow potential, very gusty winds
are expected late Thursday night through Friday as the low
continues to deepen even further east of the region over the
Great Lakes. Low-resolution ensemble guidance shows impressive
60+ percent probabilities for wind gusts of at least 50 mph
across western Minnesota, while a few of the long-range high
resolution models suggest we could see a max gust potential over
60 mph across western Minnesota. High Wind Warnings are very
likely across the Dakotas & at least into western Minnesota late
Thursday night through FRiday afternoon, while max wind gusts
more in the 40-50 mph range farther east into Wisconsin will
likely warrant a Wind Advisory. We will have to see where the
heaviest snow ends up across Minnesota & Wisconsin, and how it
matches up with the wind gusts, because Winter Storm headline
for blowing snow may be warranted should parts of Wisconsin see
several inches of snow & wind gusts over 40 mph.

Finally, we continue to monitor another large storm system
expected to impact the Upper Midwest this weekend, mainly
bringing snow to portions of our area Saturday afternoon through
Sunday morning. Thew surface low from this system will pass of
to our south, but a band of appreciable snowfall is expected to
the north of the low track - somewhere across the Upper Midwest. A
notable spread in the guidance still exists, even among the
various ensembles, placing this heaviest band of snow anywhere
from northern Minnesota to the Minnesota-Iowa border. At this
range & with this much uncertainty, it`s hard to say much in
terms in the details, but we can take note of the AIGFS & AIFS
ensembles generally favoring southern Minnesota for the
placement of the highest snow chances across our area. guidance
also remains spread on the evolution of the low, whether it is
a weaker more transient system that only results in a few inches
of snow, or a slower & stronger more developed low that could
have the potential for very heavy snowfall amounts. Too early
to say much at this point, other than snow is expected this
weekend, & to monitor the forecast for the latest updates.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 710 PM CDT Tue Mar 10 2026

A band of snow has been ongoing early this evening across
central Minnesota. Impressive snowfall rates have brought
visibilities down to 1/2SM at KSTC over the past few hours.
Further south, rain is still mixing in with the snow as
temperatures hover around freezing. This will become all snow
over the next 2-3 hours as temperatures fall. This band of
precip is expected to slowly pivot to the southeast overnight,
with MVFR/IFR conditions through much of the forecast period.
Winds will be borderline gusty generally out of the north at
15-20kts. VFR cigs should return by late morning and remain in
place through tomorrow evening.

KMSP...Snow has already started flying at MSP this evening and
will continue overnight. The period for heaviest snow looks to
occur sometime between 05z and 08z, but rates should remain
below 0.5"/hr. Intermittent gusts of 20-25kts out of the
northeast will continue before becoming north/northwest.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
THU...MVFR ceilings likely. Chc PM -RASN. Wind S 10-15G20 kts.
FRI...VFR. Wind NW 10-15 kts.
SAT...MVFR ceilings likely. Chc day -RASN, likely night -SN.
Wind SE 5-10 kts becoming NE.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...Winter Weather Advisory until 1 PM CDT Wednesday for Barron-
     Polk-Rusk.
     Winter Weather Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 1 PM CDT
     Wednesday for Chippewa-Dunn-Eau Claire-St. Croix.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...ETA
AVIATION...Dye