595
FXUS63 KMPX 111109
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
609 AM CDT Tue Mar 11 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A brief cool down is on tap for today before temperatures warm
  back up with dry conditions expected through Thursday.

- A powerful storm system remains on track to impact the region
  Friday and Saturday, bringing rain, storms, and wintry weather
  to the Upper Midwest.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 402 AM CDT Tue Mar 11 2025

2am surface obs show the cold front has arrived at the northern Twin
Cities metro. North-northwest winds are gusting 25-30 MPH along the
leading edge of the front with gusts of 20-25 MPH behind it.
Temperatures have fallen sharply across central and western
Minnesota with teens to low 20s expected by sunrise with points
further south and east dipping below freezing. High pressure
overhead will allow winds to become light and variable by mid
morning with highs in the upper 30s to mid 40s. This cooldown will
be brief as temperatures return to the 50s and 60s Wednesday with
another run of upper 60s and low 70s possible Thursday.

Heading into Friday, attention turns to our long awaited storm
system. Models continue to advertise an impressive sub-980mb
low associated with a deep, negatively titled trough setting up
over the Central Plains Friday. While it`s still too soon to
fixate on exact details/impacts, it appears that the Upper
Midwest will experience all four seasons from Friday through the
weekend. We`ll start out with warm, southerly flow sending
ample Gulf moisture northward Friday. Highs are forecast to top
out in the low to mid 70s CWA wide, making this the `Summer`
portion of the storm. With this will come chances for
thunderstorms for southern and eastern Minnesota into western
Wisconsin. Both ensemble and deterministic guidance highlight a
swath of 500-1000 J/kg of CAPE coupled with a favorable shear
profile. While the highest chance for severe weather lies well
to our south, a stronger storm or two is possible through the
evening hours as the warm front lifts northward across
southeastern Minnesota.

QPF totals are on the order of 0.50-0.75" from Friday evening
through Saturday morning. While the majority of this should fall as
liquid, a strong cold front will push into western Minnesota by
Saturday morning. The `Fall` section of this system will feature
blustery northwest winds and rain changing to snow throughout
the day from west to east area wide. This change over will
happen first for western Minnesota and looks to lead to several
hours of blowing snow with gusts of 40-45 MPH. Some snow
accumulation is possible as far south as Redwood Falls and as
far east as St. Cloud by Saturday evening, making this the
`Winter` portion of the show. A rain/snow mix is anticipated
further east before becoming mainly snow during the evening
hours. While the freezing rain threat is non-zero, have opted to
continue removing the mention from the forecast. A short period
of wintry mix/sleet is expected as things transition from rain
to snow.

The surface low will begin to fill in with strong CAA wrapping
in behind it Sunday with precip gradually ending by Sunday
morning. Storm total QPF will likely approach an inch for the
majority of the CWA by Sunday evening. `Winter` persists through
the day with northwest winds continuing to gust to around 30
MPH and highs struggling to reach freezing. We`ll start the work
week with a return to `Spring` with temperatures warming into
the upper 40s south to low 40s north. Looking ahead, our active
pattern continues through the end of the period with precip
chances returning for Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 603 AM CDT Tue Mar 11 2025

Winds have made the transition to northerly and will continue to
shift to easterly and eventually southeasterly through the
period. Now that the front is through, winds will be at or below
10kts through the day. VFR conditions to prevail, with a broken
10kft cloud deck passing through northern terminals (RNH, EAU,
STC, AXN) this evening. MSP may briefly have a VFR cig around
sunset, but most cloud coverage should stay north.

KMSP...No additional concerns. VFR to prevail.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
WED...VFR. Wind S becoming N 5-10 kts.
THU...VFR. Wind SE 10-20 kts.
FRI...MVFR/IFR RA/TSRA likely late. Wind SE 15-20G30-35 kts

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Dye
AVIATION...PV