933
FXUS63 KMPX 030800
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
300 AM CDT Sun May 3 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Warmer, dry air and breezy winds will create elevated fire
  weather conditions today across western Minnesota.

- Another cold front swings through Monday with showers
  favoring western Wisconsin. Accumulations expected to remain
  under a tenth of an inch.

- Cooler temperatures again behind Monday`s cold front,
  followed by a gradual warming trend into the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 259 AM CDT Sun May 3 2026

Radar imagery shows scattered returns over southern MN and into west-
central WI early this morning. A lot of this activity has been
virga, owing to the deep, dry sub-cloud layer seen in the 00Z MPX
ROAB. However, several AWOSs have reported light rain and GOES
satellite even detected a few lightning flashes near BDH. These
showers and cloud cover will continue to move southeast throughout
the rest of tonight, allowing for a sunny Sunday. Highs this
afternoon into the mid 60s to near 70. The air should also dry
throughout the day in the wake of weak cold front. This will set the
stage for some elevated fire weather conditions this afternoon. RHs
will drop below 30% with a large portion of the CWA falling to 20-
25%. Vegetation green-ness and winds will be limiting factors, but
wind gusts will reach 20 mph for most of today. Some stronger gusts
are possible across western MN in the late afternoon/early evening.
As such, have issued an SPS in western MN today for elevated fire
weather conditions.

Lows tonight will only fall into the mid 40s to lower 50s as the
warmer air mass remains. Southwesterly winds will increase during
the night as a LLJ ahead of a shortwave over south-central Canada
translates over the Upper Midwest. Have bumped up winds through
Monday afternoon using a blend of the NBM/NBM 90th percentile. Gusts
in western MN Monday will range from 30-35 MPH. The main energy of
the aforementioned shortwave will pass well to our northeast, but a
strong cold front will move through the Upper Midwest during the day
Monday. A large gradient in high temperatures should occur as the
front passes through during the afternoon. Highs in the lower 70s
are forecast for our southeastern counties while mid to upper 50s
are more likely for west-central MN. Scattered rain showers are also
possible along this cold front, though most of the synoptic lift is
also well off to our northeast. West-central WI currently has the
best chance (20-30%) at seeing showers Monday afternoon. Cooler air
will follow the front, returning us to below normal temperatures
through mid-week. Highs will range from the upper 40s to mid 50s
Tuesday and Wednesday. Meanwhile, frost/freeze concerns will be back
on the menu as overnight lows will fall to near or under 32,
particularly Tuesday and Wednesday night.

Fortunately, forecast models don`t show the cooldown lasting too
long, as the heart of polar, continental airmass begins to shift
east the latter half of this week. We should see a steady warmup
with next weekend`s temperatures already hinting to be similar to
what we`ve seen this weekend. As for precipitation chances the
remainder of the period, forecast certainty in rainfall is low as
continued northwesterly flow will limit available moisture. Long-
range models show a few opportunities for weaker shortwaves to pass
through the Northern Plains, but large spread in location and timing
results in very low PoPs after Monday.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1154 PM CDT Sat May 2 2026

The broken to overcast deck of mid-level clouds currently over
southern MN and into WI is producing some scattered light
showers. However, this precipitation should not cause any
significant impacts at TAF sites. Skies will clear during this
morning as the cloud cover moves southeast. VFR conditions are
expected the entire period with scattered high clouds arriving
Sunday evening. South-southwesterly winds become northwesterly
from northwest to southeast from now until mid-morning as a
cold frontal passage occurs. Winds will gust to near 20 knots
throughout Sunday. A slight decrease in wind speed is likely
Sunday evening with winds becoming south-southwesterly again.

KMSP...Perhaps a stray shower at MSP over the next few hours
from TAF start but not expecting any impacts. Added 40 knots of
southwesterly LLWS for early Monday morning.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
MON...VFR, chc -SHRA. Wind SW to NW 10-15G25 kts.
TUE...VFR. Wind NW 10-15G25 kts.
WED...VFR. Wind NW 5-10 kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CTG
AVIATION...CTG