270
FXUS63 KMPX 122025
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
325 PM CDT Sun Oct 12 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered showers possible this evening & overnight.

- Seasonable temperatures to start the week (60s & 50s)

- A semi-active, warmer pattern sets up with additional rain chances
  through next weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 324 PM CDT Sun Oct 12 2025

Scattered light showers are present across central & southern MN
this afternoon. Precipitation has been light so far, but hi-res
guidance supports an uptick in development & rainfall rates this
evening ahead of the approaching cold front. Southeast winds will
gusts up to 35 mph continue through the evening hours before
shifting to the northwest after the FROPA. High temperatures will
range from the upper 60s to lower 70s but the gusty winds still make
it feel Fall-like. Latest HRRR develops additional showers along the
front after 00z in W MN. These will move through the metro into the
metro around 03z and W WI shortly after. The signal for QPF hasn`t
been all too impressive - still 0.10" to 0.25" and it will not be
widespread due to the scattered coverage of the precip. Thunder
chances are low, but not non-zero so a rogue rumble isn`t out of the
realm of possibility. Rain will abruptly end after the frontal
passage & winds turn to the NW, ushering in cooler & drier
airmass to start the week. Overnight lows will bottom out in the
40s.

Another taste of Fall is on tap for the start of the week. High
temperatures will range in the 50s and lower 60s Monday & Tuesday,
with Tuesday being the coldest day of the week. The surface high
will begin to shift toward the Great Lakes and E US and this will
usher in a wave of warm air advection precip chances on Wednesday
across S MN. Turning upstream, an upper-level trough will dig in
over the West Coast that will promote southwesterly flow over the
Rockies & Plains. That southerly low level flow will allow our
temperatures to warm for the second half of the week with highs
returning to the 70s on Thursday. Guidance eventually ejects the
western trough into the Central & Northern Plains. The ECMWF brings
a surface low through the the Dakotas and into NW MN by Friday
morning. This will bring additional showers & thunderstorms with the
accompanying surface cold front. Models diverge on how they handle t
his feature with varying difference in placement & timing for next
weekend. It will usher in cooler temperatures that will only be a
few degrees above normal as no significant stretch of
meaningful colder air is on the horizon.


&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1241 PM CDT Sun Oct 12 2025

Fairly wide swath of precip showing up on the KMPX radar at the
12/18z TAF initialization is barely reaching the ground. Mainly
sprinkles, if anything at all, is what can be expected over all
sites during the next several hours. No flight restrictions
expected with this round, and also not expecting any TS/CB for
any TAF site with chances quite low. The more organized steady
rainfall is still expected to develop over western MN late this
afternoon then will steadily spread east through about midnight.
Possibly some MVFR conditions may develop from that later round
of rain but nothing substantial or prolonged. Skies then clear
out as the overnight progresses with SKC conditions expected
Monday. As for winds, breezy/gusty SE to S winds will continue
into this evening, then winds will shift to SW and W this
evening with the passage of the cold front responsible for the
precipitation, then winds turn NW behind the front. Speeds will
remain elevated through the evening ahead of and with the
frontal passage, then diminish overnight through tomorrow behind
the front.

KMSP...Sprinkles may try to reach the rain gauge over the next
few hours but overall am expecting dry conditions through this
afternoon. The more steady rain looks to occur generally between
the 00z-05z timeframe, and only up to about 0.10" may be
realized. No flight condition reductions from VFR are expected.
Winds will shift from S to NW during that same timeframe, still
with speeds upwards of 15G25kts. Speeds diminish from around
midnight onward behind the cold front, and skies will also
gradually clear out overnight through tomorrow.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
TUE...VFR. Wind NE 5-10kts.
WED...VFR. Wind SE 5-10kts.
THU...Chance -RA/MVFR. Wind SE 10-15G25kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BPH
AVIATION...JPC