042
FXUS63 KMPX 222325
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
625 PM CDT Thu May 22 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Patchy frost possible in central MN tonight.

- A few chances for light showers are possible through early
  Tuesday, otherwise dry and gradually warming temps ahead.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 313 PM CDT Thu May 22 2025

It has been a beautiful Spring day with mostly sunny skies,
light winds, and highs warming into the 60s across much of the
region. We`ll see another night of potential for frost in some
of the far northern portions of a few counties (primarily
Morrison, Mille Lacs & Kanabec in central MN, and eastern Rusk
in WI). It is not expected be widespread, but any low-lying
areas prone to cooler temperatures would be more at risk.

Many locations saw around 2 to 4 inches of rainfall from Monday
morning all the way through Thursday morning. To put that into
perspective, the normal monthly precipitation totals at MSP, Eau
Claire, and St Cloud are 3.91", 3.91", and 3.66" respectively.
Yes, that is not a typo - MSP and EAU are the same! It is likely
a good thing that we received that much rain given how dry the
forecast looks through the end of May. The latest WPC 7 Day QPF
shows a minimum right over much of MN and western WI, with most
areas struggling to see anything over 0.01". It seems that the
only chance of showers would come via a shortwave this weekend
or early next week, with Tuesday now having the greatest PoPs
around 25 to 35 percent.

On top of the drier conditions, the next 7 days should largely
be the same from day to day with partly cloudy skies and
relatively light winds. Temperatures will be the main change
each day, gradually increasing to above normal (mid 70s) by the
middle of next week.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 625 PM CDT Thu May 22 2025

Diurnal Cu will dissipate in the first few hours of the 00z TAF
period. Light winds overnight will increase out of the ENE
tomorrow, generally between 5-10 kts. VFR conditions persist
through Friday afternoon, though should see an increase in high
clouds from the west. Additionally, forecast soundings support
another round of diurnal Cu (SCT/BKN) between 5-8k feet.

KMSP...No additional concerns.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SAT...VFR. Wind E 5-10 kts.
SUN...VFR. Wind E 5-10 kts.
MON...VFR. Wind E 5-10 kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BED
AVIATION...Strus