150
FXUS63 KMPX 231135
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
635 AM CDT Sat Aug 23 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered sprinkles are possible this afternoon in the wake of
  a departing cold front. Otherwise, mainly dry conditions are
  expected from tonight through most of the upcoming week.

- Cooler temperatures expected today through much of next week
  with highs in the 60s/70s and lows in the 40s/50s.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 327 AM CDT Sat Aug 23 2025

A cold front has finally passed through the WFO MPX coverage
area early this morning, resulting in quickly dropping dewpoints
and temperatures along with a shift to northwest winds. Any
remaining showers associated with the front have also shifted
east, thus leaving mainly clear skies which are expected to
persist through sunrise. However, despite Canadian-origin
surface high pressure arriving from the northwest, clouds will
increase quickly later this morning in response to several weak
impulses rounding the southwestern periphery of a deep upper
level low near Hudson Bay. By this afternoon within peak heating
of the day, a few of these impulses may be sufficient to
utilize modest moisture aloft to produce sprinkles across much
of the WFO MPX coverage area from early this afternoon through
the early evening hours. While nothing heavy is expected nor
anything long-lasting at any given time or location, they will
be of the nuisance hit-and-miss variety and may be fairly
frequent and progressive across the area. Only a trace to maybe
a hundredth of an inch of rainfall is expected for total
rainfall through the day today. All that said, these sprinkles
shouldn`t be a dealbreaker to have outdoor activities today with
highs only reaching the mid-to-upper 60s, appreciably below
normal values for late August.

As high pressure takes more of a hold across the area tonight
into Sunday, cloud cover will slowly diminish for tonight,
allowing temperatures to fall to the upper 40s to lower 50s for
overnight minimum temperatures. Clouds will return for mainly
far eastern MN into western WI during the day on Sunday, with
additional diurnally-driven sprinkles/showers possible for
western WI Sunday afternoon. Otherwise, a period of dry weather
will start on Sunday and last through much of the week owing to
broad ridging aloft and cool/stable high pressure at the surface
keeping any organized systems away from the Upper Midwest.

Highs in the 60s to lower 70s will persist through Tuesday, then
increase to the mid-upper 70s Wednesday-Thursday ahead of
another cold (but dry) front expected to drop southeast across
the region. Behind this front, another Canadian-origin high
pressure airmass will settle across the region, bumping
temperatures back down to near 70 for the start of the Labor Day
weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 623 AM CDT Sat Aug 23 2025

Low-VFR range stratus/stratocumulus clouds will drop south from
northern MN late this morning and remain in place throughout the
day. Models try to drop ceilings into MVFR range but given the
drying out of the lower levels behind the front, have opted to
keep ceilings no lower than about 035, thus keeping flight
conditions within VFR range. Scattered nuisance intermittent
sprinkles may develop during the afternoon hours but are not
expected to have any impact. Timing/placement of such precip at
any given TAF site will be highly problematic to pin down so
have kept the TAFs dry, but if any precip occurs, the total for
the day is only expected to be a trace to 0.01". NW winds will
prevail behind the precipitation line, with speeds increasing to
near 15G25kts for peak speeds Saturday afternoon, then dropping
to under 10kts by Saturday evening, coinciding with skies
clearing out.

KMSP...VFR conditions to prevail but ceilings as low as 035-040
are likely from late morning through sunset. Ceilings into MVFR
range are possible around midday, but have opted to hold off
such mention at this point due to low confidence. For similar
reasoning, have omitted mention of sprinkles (RW--) as the
intermittent and very light nature spells limited to no impacts
expected as no reduction in flight category is expected should
any precip reach the ground at MSP.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
MON...VFR. Wind NW 5-10 kts.
TUE...VFR. Wind NW 5 kts.
MON...VFR. Wind SW 5-10 kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JPC
AVIATION...JPC