704
FXUS63 KMPX 050855
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
255 AM CST Wed Feb 5 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Wintry weather expected for Wednesday, mainly light snow
  across central Minnesota and western Wisconsin, with periods
  of freezing drizzle possible over southern Minnesota.

- Widespread accumulating snow likely on Saturday.

- Very cold temperatures expected going into mid-February.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 249 AM CST Wed Feb 5 2025

TODAY and TONIGHT... Current surface observations reveal an
expansive 1036mb high pressure centered over west-central Canada
extending southeast into the Upper Midwest. Winds have decreased
with some locations light & variable this morning. Temperatures are
in the single digits above zero across much of the area early this
morning. Temperatures shouldn`t cool down much more given the cloud
cover overhead will act as a blanket and limit any runaway
radiational cooling potential. Aloft, there is an deepening trough
out west along the PAC NW coast while a hint of a ridge over
the southeastern CONUS that extends back into the Great Lakes
region. The aforementioned ridge will break down over the next
12 hours, as the surface high pressure shifts east to the
western Great Lakes. Our longwave trough off the PAC NW will
eject a shortwave trough that`ll quickly move across the north-
central CONUS. Warm air advection will ramp up today and tonight
as winds shift from the southeast to a more southerly direction
after sunset. This should help low level moisture to filter in
behind the departing Arctic high pressure, but we`ll discuss
that more in a moment. High temperatures will be in the 20s with
mostly cloudy skies giving away to light snow this afternoon
and evening.

Our attention turns to our warm air advection precipitation this
afternoon/evening. Light snow will lift north across southern
Minnesota Wednesday afternoon. There is some concern for a period of
freezing drizzle across southern Minnesota. Forecast soundings
highlight a saturated DGZ in the mid levels but a sizable layer of
dry air before the surface. There will likely be some saturation in
the lower levels that should support drizzle. Temperatures will be
in the 20s so any liquid precipitation will freeze on contact.
Freezing drizzle concerns decrease as you head into the Twin Cities
and locations further north. Snow chances are best north of I-94,
across east-central Minnesota, where 2 to 4" seems likely.
Elsewhere, accumulations drop off quickly with most lucky to measure
a half inch to an inch by Thursday morning. Our snow ratios should
be at or below climatology during the event with some better ratios
around Mille Lacs. This will likely give way to graupel pellets
given the dry air concerns. For those in the Twin Cities metro, the
evening commute could face some impacts despite limited snow
forecast. This means it may take some extra time to get home.

THURSDAY and FRIDAY... Precipitation tapers off overnight into
Thursday morning. Thursday`s high temperature will occur after
midnight tonight as cold air advection ramps up during the daytime
hours. Temperatures will remain the the teens as strong westerly
winds sustained 20 to 25 mph gusting up to 45 mph will usher in
colder air once again. Low temperatures will fall into the single
digits Thursday night. Friday will be similar to Thursday with a mix
of sun and clouds. Temperatures will warm a bit more, into the teens
and lower 20s, with lows in the teens Friday night. Meanwhile, our
next shortwave trough will move into the Rockies. This will set the
stage for lee cyclogenesis to occur, sending a ~1000mb surface low
from the eastern Great Plains towards the Great Lakes Saturday.

SATURDAY... Hope is a dangerous thing, my friend. Our Plains system
will track into the Great Lakes region and deliver us our first
legitimate widespread snow since December`s Pacific low. It`s too
early to give specific ranges or amounts but confidence is
increasing in the potential for a 4"+ snowfall across much of the
MPX forecast area. Forecast guidance brings in 0.4 to 0.5" PW values
into the region. A potent SW flow aloft will tap into Pacific
moisture and should set the table for a potential Winter Storm
Watch/Warning event. Unfortunately, it`s not a slam dunk yet as a
few failure modes exist. There are a few different pieces of energy
that will need to interact within a specific time period otherwise
we`ll likely miss out on this storm. That can be said for most
systems... phasing is always key! Thankfully, the signal across the
3 main ensemble systems is hard to ignore. QPF between 0.25" to
0.50" seems reasonable somewhere across the MPX forecast area. Snow
ratios should be in the 15 to 20:1 range, returning a legitimate
snowfall for much of the area. For those with travel plans on
Saturday may need to monitor the forecast trends over the next few
days. The system exits by Saturday evening (hopefully) leaving
behind a Winter wonderland for a region that has struggled to see
snowfall over the past 1 and a half Winter Seasons.

SUNDAY through WEDNESDAY... There is a signal for an Arctic air mass
to return to the north-central CONUS through early next week.
Temperatures will be in the the single digits to teens for highs and
at or below zero for lows. One thought is that we will likely trend
colder at night given the enhanced cooling associated with a fresh
snowpack. The unsettle pattern continues yet it will shift further
south as high pressure suppresses the jet. The pattern looks to
remain active for a good portion of the next two to three weeks.
Temperatures look to run at or below normal through it as well. This
suggests we`ll see additional snow chances if we`re able to get
storms to cut into the region... so there is still hope we`ll make
up some ground in our snow deficit over this stretch.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1056 PM CST Tue Feb 4 2025

VFR with light winds overnight, so little to no aviation
concerns tonight. Wednesday, the winds will pick up to around
10 knots from an easterly to southeasterly direction. Snow will
move across the region from southwest to northeast. In general
this will be snow, but there could be some wintry mix with the
best chance farther south at MKT and maybe EAU. VFR will
continue before the snow starts to fall with MVFR expected as
snow falls. There is a chance for some IFR in areas of heavier
snow, but that was not likely enough for inclusion in the TAFs.
The better chance for this heavier snow is generally north of
our TAF sites across northern Minnesota.

KMSP... VFR mid level clouds and light northeast winds tonight.
Wednesday winds shift to the southeast with decreasing ceilings
through the day. Snow chances will also increase with the best
chance for MVFR snow in the late afternoon to evening. Low
ceilings likely after the snow comes to an end leading to
continued MVFR and a chance for IFR ceilings. There has been
some signal now for lower ceilings, but wanted to wait another
cycle to make sure before adding in IFR ceilings after the snow.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
THU...MVFR, bcmg VFR. Wind W 15-20G30 kts.
FRI...VFR. Wind W becoming N 5-10 kts.
SAT...MVFR/IFR/SN likely. Wind NE 5-10 kts becoming NW.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BPH
AVIATION...NDC