217
FXUS63 KMPX 011742
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
1242 PM CDT Fri Aug 1 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Wildfire smoke impacts peak today and last into tomorrow.

- Overall cool and dry forecast with some chances for rain in
  western Minnesota early next week and a more widespread chance
  for rain late next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 257 AM CDT Fri Aug 1 2025

Status quo today as the high remains over the Upper Midwest.
This will keep skies mostly clear and winds light. This weather
will keep the smoke over us today and likely into tomorrow. This
high pressure will begin to move out tomorrow finally allowing
some flow to resume and to move some of this smoke out. There
are two impacts from this smoke one obviously bad one and
another that for some, is good. The obviously bad one is the
poor air quality. The other impact is lower temperatures. The
smoke acts similar to clouds and sends some of the sun`s heat
back into space keeping us cooler. So if you were not a fan of
the heat a few days ago, at least the smoke isn`t all bad.

A system will track across the Dakotas late Saturday into
Sunday. Most of the impacts will likely remain to our west over
the Dakotas, but we should see some lift in parts of western
Minnesota and therefore rain. Instability looks quite limited
with just some skinny elevated CAPE. So while thunderstorms
can`t be ruled out, rain showers are more likely. There is a
chance for some more widespread rain later in the week. Still
seeing quite a bit of variability both the global deterministic
models and their respective ensemble systems. What is clear
among there model systems is an increase in PoP late week across
much of the Upper Midwest. As we get closer this forecast envelope
will shrink and the location and QPF of this activity will
become more clear. Also with the smoke clearing out and a
generally southerly flow at 850 mb a warming trend is expected
next week. Our below normal temperatures through the weekend
will rise to near normal early next week and above normal mid to
late week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1242 PM CDT Fri Aug 1 2025

MVFR vis smoke and light winds are expected to continue through
the period. Some VFR fair wx cu is developing across southern
and western MN which will dissipate after dusk.

KMSP...No additional concerns.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SUN...VFR. Wind S 5-10 kts.
MON...VFR. Slight chc MVFR/-TSRA, Wind SE 5-10 kts.
TUE...VFR. Wind SE 10 kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...NDC
AVIATION...Borghoff