653
FXUS63 KMPX 200521
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
1221 AM CDT Sun Apr 20 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Rain returns to the forecast Sunday evening through Monday
  morning. 0.75-1" of rain possible across southeast MN & western WI.

- Additional rain showers possible Tuesday and Thursday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 241 PM CDT Sat Apr 19 2025

Not a bad afternoon for mid-April across the Upper Midwest, despite
cooler than normal temperatures in the upper 40s to lower 50s.
Visible satellite reveals an expansive diurnal Cu field, owing to
mixing up to 6-7k feet. In response to the efficient mixing, surface
winds have run on the hotter side of guidance, producing peak gusts
between 20-30 mph. RAP bufkit data displays breezy winds persisting
through late afternoon, before significantly diminishing by early
evening. We anticipate the scattered Cu will erode by early evening
as well. A quiet night of weather is on deck, with clear skies and
light winds turning out of the southeast.

The forecast trends dry for much of Sunday, prior to the arrival of
the next chance for widespread precipitation. High clouds will
thicken from south to north through the afternoon. Breezy
southeasterly flow will assist in warming temperatures into the
upper 50s/lower 60s for afternoon highs. It should be another good
day to get some fresh air, prior to the arrival of late evening
rain. Guidance remains in solid agreement with the track of a
surface cyclone moving out of the eastern Great Plains into the
northern Great Lakes Sunday into Monday. Though small variations in
the surface low track exist amongst the ensemble suite, the
consensus track continues to project a track from Dubuque, IA
towards Green Bay, WI. Would not be surprised to see a slight delay
in the onset of precipitation (as compared to the latest consensus
solution) given the dry antecedent conditions. However, an extended
fetch of Gulf moisture and isentropic ascent will promote saturation
and the arrival of a broad rainfall shield moving north into the
region tomorrow evening. The deformation zone will be positioned
from roughly south central MN into western WI, which will result in
multiple hours of rain (and 90+ PoPs) through early Monday morning.
Conversely, the NBM has continued to tighten up the expected sharp
cut-off on the western extent of the precipitation. It`s looking
more and more likely that little, if any precipitation will be
measured across western MN. When it`s all said and done, rainfall
amounts above 0.5" are favored along and east of a line from
Fairmont to Chisago City. Higher amounts, near an inch, are forecast
east of the aforementioned line. The other moving piece to the
forecast is with a possible transition to a frozen p-type within the
deformation band Monday morning. This idea is continually displayed
within the operational GFS, though given the marginal thermal
scenario it is not too surprising that there is little ensemble
support. At this point, it appears that the best chance for any
snowflakes to fly will be across western WI where no more than a
dusting of snow is expected.

A brief break in the wet weather will follow for the second half of
Monday. Renewed precipitation chances arrive Tuesday, as a compact
surface low lifts through the Dakotas. Warm advective precipitation
in the form of scattered showers (and perhaps a rumble of thunder or
two) is reflected by PoPs between 40-60% on Tuesday. It does not
look like a washout, as the showers will be tied to the
northeastward advance of a warm front. Behind the front,
temperatures will warm nicely, say into the upper 60s and perhaps
low 70s across southwestern MN. Temperatures will run cooler
(50s/low 60s) across eastern MN/western WI given the showers/clouds
in association with the front. The warm air will spread east on
Wednesday, with highs forecast to flirt with 70 degrees across much
of southern MN/western WI. The active pattern aims to send another
round of April showers across the Upper Midwest Thursday. Dry
weather is then expected to return for the start of next weekend,
with highs in the 60s.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1221 AM CDT Sun Apr 20 2025

Clear skies with light winds to start the period tonight.
Sunday will see a change as our next round of rain moves in over
the course of the day. As the rain starts MVFR will become
widespread with some IFR possible by Sunday night. Winds will
also pick up from the south in the morning before shifting to
the east Sunday evening into night. All terminals with the
exception of AXN should see at least some impact from this rain
moving through with the best chances to the east at the
Wisconsin terminals.

KMSP...Shifting winds from light and variable overnight to
southeast om to east/northeast. Thankfully the northeast winds
should be light. Clear and VFR to MVFR as the rain starts with
the high IFR by Sunday night.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
MON...MVFR and -RA early, chance IFR. VFR late. Wind N 10-15
kts.
TUE...Chance MVFR/-SHRA. Wind SE 10-15 kts.
WED...VFR. Wind W 5-10 kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Strus
AVIATION...NDC