275
FXUS63 KMPX 101739
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
1239 PM CDT Fri Oct 10 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Elevated fire weather conditions possible this afternoon.

- Rain likely Sunday with breezy winds.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 252 AM CDT Fri Oct 10 2025

A couple of isolated showers and storms have developed in
southeastern MN and western WI early this morning ahead of a
cold front. This activity will move east over the next couple
of hours, potentially affecting EAU where we have 30-40% PoPs.
Clear skies over MN will continue to spread east following this
activity, allowing for a sunny Friday. Breezier northwesterly
flow proceeding the cold front will cool us slightly to end the
week with mid to upper 60s expected for highs (Friday and
Saturday). Elevated fire weather conditions are still possible
this afternoon, mainly across southern and south-central MN.
Here, minimum RHs will fall into the lower 30s and, combined
with existing drier vegetation, could allow for a couple of
hours of elevated fire potential. Lows Friday night will get a
little chilly with mid 30s to lower 40s expected. Areas with the
greatest chances for frost will be near JMR and in our northern
WI counties. Cloud cover will increase from the west Saturday
into Saturday night as an upper-level trough and jetstreak swing
through the Rockies and into the Northern High Plains. A strong
LLJ ahead of the trough will allow for WAA over the Northern
Plains into Sunday, causing Sunday`s highs to warm into the
upper 60s to even upper 70s in southwestern MN. However, Sunday
is not expected to be very nice as southerly winds will be quite
strong with gusts to 25-35 MPH. Have slightly increased winds
for our region using a blend of the NBM and NBM 90th percentile.
Additionally, rain showers are expected to develop within the
WAA and upper-level diffluence, slowly moving west to east
across the CWA Saturday night through Sunday night. Rainfall
totals shouldn`t be too significant but the Grand Ensemble shows
the entire area receiving at least 0.1-0.2". Western MN
currently has the potential to see the most rain with the 75th
percentile of the Grand Ensemble climbing to near 0.8".

As the trough axis swings through the Upper Midwest earlier
Monday, a strong cold front will move in tandem, ending
precipitation and cooling us to start the work week. Western and
central MN will see highs dip into the mid to upper 50s for
Monday while the entire CWA should see these values for Tuesday.
Monday night could be particularly cool where lows are
currently forecast fall to near freezing over central MN.
Temperatures look to moderate, though, as we head towards mid-
next week. Zonal upper-level flow to even slight ridging becomes
favored over the central CONUS, especially as we get later in
the week. Southwesterly upper-level flow downstream of a
positively-tilted trough over the west coast will allow for WAA
into the central CONUS allowing the aforementioned ridge to
build. This flow should also advect greater moisture into the
region such that forecast models develop periods of QPF across
the Upper Midwest after Wednesday. Though, the spread in the
models has just resulted in a smearing 20-40% PoPs Wednesday
night through next Friday. We`ll have to wait a few more
forecast cycles to gain more confidence in our next good chance
of rainfall for the latter half of next week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1231 PM CDT Fri Oct 10 2025

VFR conditions expected throughout this TAF set. Breezy NW winds
will diminish to light/variable overnight, then pick up from the
SE near and after sunrise, coming close to 15G25kt as the day
progresses.

KMSP...No additional concerns.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SUN...MVFR/-SHRA likely. Wind SE 15-20G30kts.
MON...VFR. Wind NW 10G20kts.
TUE...VFR. Wind NE 5-10kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CTG
AVIATION...JPC