780
FXUS63 KMPX 041148
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
648 AM CDT Fri Jul 4 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Hot and humid today with a Heat Advisory in effect for central
  MN and west central WI.

- Showers and thunderstorms are expected tonight into Saturday.

- Relief from the heat and occasional chances for thunderstorms
  next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 329 AM CDT Fri Jul 4 2025

Showers and thunderstorms continue across parts of western WI
early this morning in response to a low level jet, moisture
convergence, and an instability gradient. SPC mesoanalysis
highlights enough bulk shear to organize a few of these cells to
severe limits capable of large hail. Otherwise, an axis of ~2
inch pwats extending across southern and western WI had allowed
for very efficient rainfall. Convection has been training
southeast as renewed development continues to the north. 6 hour
QPE ranges from 2 to 4 inches from eastern St. Croix County,
across Dunn and into southern Chippewa and Eau Claire counties.
There have been a few reports of flooded roads, but any
instances have been isolated. Convection is starting to wane and
this trend is likely to continue through the early morning
hours.

A warm front along the Mississippi River will lift north this
morning. Gusty south winds will develop mid morning while skies
clear. 925 mb temps in the upper 20s C should bring highs back
into the low 90s. It should be a degree or two warmer than
yesterday with better mixing, slightly warmer temps aloft, and
lower dew points. Nevertheless, heat indices will still reach
the mid 90s to lower 100s area wide. Expanded the Heat Advisory
across central MN and the rest of west central WI. This is where
winds are expected to be lowest, leading to higher WBGT values,
and where dew points will be highest.

Showers and thunderstorms will develop along a surface trough
and cold front across the Dakotas and northern MN this
afternoon. The front will inch eastward tonight and activity
should begin spreading into western MN this evening. A few
severe storms are possible with this activity, but as the night
wears on the atmosphere will begin to stabilize and as
convection continues eastward it should weaken. However, very
high pwats along the front, possibly nearing 2.25 inches, very
high freezing levels near 15kft, and MBE velocities of only 5
to 10 kts will allow storms to be rather efficient rain
producers. A low pressure center will ride northeast along the
slow moving front Saturday. Rounds of showers and thunderstorms
are expected near the front, especially in the afternoon with
diurnal instability increasing.

The front will push east Saturday night and the rest of the
weekend looks dry. West northwest flow aloft will bring a
return of near normal temperatures next week. Several weak
disturbances will bring periodic chances for showers and
storms. The EML is expected to remain west across the Rockies
and Plains, but lapse rates locally will be steep enough for
bouts of strong instability. There doesn`t appear to be one
particular period with higher confidence for widespread
convection, but a scenario similar to this morning`s with
localized clusters of thunderstorms and heavy rain are possible
through the week.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 648 AM CDT Fri Jul 4 2025

A few mid and high level clouds are expected today. South winds
will increase this morning and gust to 25 kts this afternoon.
TSRA will develop across western MN this evening, spreading east
slowly through the night.

KMSP...No concerns today. Chances for TS increase after 11Z
Saturday morning.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SAT...Chc MVFR cigs. TSRA likely. Wind SW 5-10kts.
SUN...VFR. Wind NW 5-10kts.
MON...VFR. Wind SE 5-10kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...Heat Advisory from noon today to 8 PM CDT this evening for
     Anoka-Benton-Carver-Chippewa-Chisago-Dakota-Douglas-
     Hennepin-Isanti-Kanabec-Kandiyohi-Lac Qui Parle-McLeod-
     Meeker-Mille Lacs-Morrison-Pope-Ramsey-Scott-Sherburne-
     Stearns-Stevens-Swift-Todd-Washington-Wright-Yellow
     Medicine.
WI...Heat Advisory from noon today to 8 PM CDT this evening for
     Barron-Chippewa-Dunn-Eau Claire-Pepin-Pierce-Polk-Rusk-
     St. Croix.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Borghoff
AVIATION...Borghoff