143
FXUS63 KMPX 222356
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
556 PM CST Sat Feb 22 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Warm up continues with highs in the 40s and low 50s tomorrow
  through Tuesday.

- A few chances for light rain/snow next week. Best chance
  currently is Tuesday night.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 318 PM CST Sat Feb 22 2025

Many locations have warmed above freezing for the first time
since February 3rd. This marks the longest running streak of
below freezing temperatures since the winter of 2019 when we saw
31 days in a row (at MSP Airport). Interestingly though, the
2019 stretch occurred after the infamous Polar Vortex from that
January... the 31 days lasted from February into March. This
recent stretch of cold weather is only the 92nd longest stretch
of AOB 32 degrees (since the period of record began in 1872).
Despite some cloud cover across the region, you can see a
retreating line of snow cover on satellite throughout the day,
especially in SW MN along the Buffalo Ridge. Snow depth was
already limited in that region, but a mix of the late February
sun angle and SW flow over the Ridge has allowed temperatures to
soar into the upper 40s and eat away at any snow left on the
ground.

Thermal ridging will continue to build across the western half
of the CONUS as we head into next week, allowing much of the
Northern Plains to climb 10-20 degrees above normal for this
time of year. A series of shortwaves will bring several chances
for light rain/snow this week, with the best setup looking to be
Tuesday night into Wednesday. QPF has remained around a tenth
or less, and rain is favored. More of a wintry mix could occur
overnight as temperatures drop off to the north of I-94. There
could be more of a drastic gradient in temperatures this week
than models suggest, with more cloud and snow cover to the
north and an already snow-free ground across much of SW MN.
Temperatures will start to cool closer to normal by this weekend
following the passage of another decent looking Clipper to the
north.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 544 PM CST Sat Feb 22 2025

Main question this period is whether or not we`ll see fog as
several of the hi-res models show. However, we look to be BKN to
OVC with mid level clouds through the night. Combine the cloud
cover with dewpoints in the 20s and we`re not really sold on
there being much fog tonight, so continued to keep its mention
out of AXN & STC. For Sunday, the skies will clear out with
light southwest winds persisting.

KMSP...No additional concerns for MSP.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
MON...VFR. Wind W 10-15 kts.
TUE...VFR. Chc MVFR cigs. Wind NW 5-10 kts bcmg SW.
WED...VFR. Chc MVFR/-RA early. Wind NW 10-15 kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...
AVIATION...MPG