336
FXUS63 KMPX 171831
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
131 PM CDT Thu Jul 17 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Showers and thunderstorms Friday afternoon, with a few severe
  storms possible across the southwest. Hail and wind are the
  primary threats.

- Dry weekend expected for most, with seasonable temperatures
  in the upper 70s to near 80.

- Warm & humid next week with multiple chances for thunderstorms.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 128 PM CDT Thu Jul 17 2025

TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...Early afternoon satellite imagery with
surface obs showed a fair weather shallow cumulus field across the
region, and anticyclonic flow around a broad area of surface high
pressure. Conditions were very comfortably by mid-July standards,
with temperatures near 70, dewpoints near 50, and light winds.

This evening, expect the low clouds to dissipate as we lose the peak
heating, and later tonight high clouds will drift in from the west.
The surface high pressure will track eastward, and this will allow
light southeast winds to develop overnight. This will keep
temperatures a bit warmer than the previous night, with lows in the
50s across the region.

On Friday, southeast surface winds will continue on the back side of
the surface high pressure system. This will bring slightly warmer
and more humid air across the region, in particular southwest
Minnesota. Meanwhile H850 winds will be out of the southwest, and
H500 winds will be out of the west. This will create a favorable
wind shear profile for thunderstorms, but the limiting factor will
be instability. The highest MLCAPE values will be south and west of
the Minnesota River Valley, and SPC continues with a Marginal
risk for severe storms. Could see a scenario where parts of this
gets upgraded to a Slight Risk for an increased wind or hail
threat. Timing for these storms looks to be in the late
afternoon through the evening. Eventually the showers and
thunderstorms will move off to the southwest overnight.

SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...High pressure will build across the
Great Lakes, leading to northeast winds across the region for
Saturday and Sunday, pushing a frontal boundary south of the MN/IA
border. This should bring dry conditions for most, along with
comfortable temperatures. Looking ahead, instability builds again on
Sunday as the front starts to lift northward, leading to chances for
thunderstorms Sunday night. Zonal flow aloft will bring multiple
weak disturbances across the region, and these will ignite
thunderstorms along that frontal boundary. Next week won`t be a
total washout, but uncertainties in timing and location of this
boundary and the storms along it resulted in a prolonged period of
rain chances next week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1219 PM CDT Thu Jul 17 2025

VFR conditions expected through the period, with scattered
cumulus this afternoon clearing out by sunset. Cigs will then
gradually lower from west to east ahead of a developing low.
SHRA and TS chances will also increase Friday afternoon and
evening, with AXN seeing the rain move in first.

KMSP...No additional concerns.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
FRI PM...VFR, Chc MVFR. Chc -TSRA. Wind SSE 5-15 kts.
SAT...VFR. Chc morning MVFR cigs. Wind NE 5-10 kts.
SUN...VFR. Wind SE 5-15 kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JRB
AVIATION...BED