628
FXUS63 KMPX 072344
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
644 PM CDT Mon Sep 7 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A west-to-east moving cold front will trigger a couple rounds
  of showers and storms today and tonight. Locally heavy
  rainfall is the primary threat

- Slightly cooler temperatures are on the horizon with rain
  chances returning Friday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 302 PM CDT Mon Sep 7 2026

.REMAINDER OF TODAY AND TUESDAY...

Current mid-level satellite imagery (as of 1:20pm) shows strong
and anomalous upper level system over the Northern Rockies,
with associated upper level jet and diffluent flow overspreading
the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest. This feature within the
overall synoptic flow will promote an increase in rain chances
this evening and overnight timeframe across the area. A piece of
energy embedded within the diffluent flow will move across the
Dakotas this afternoon/evening before moving into MN during the
evening and overnight timeframe. At the surface and in the low
levels, deep southerly will continue to promote warm air
advection across the area with moisture values steadily
increasing. Increasing moisture coupled with sufficient forcing
will lead to pre-frontal scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms. This activity will move west to east across the
northern half of the CWA late this afternoon and evening.

The next bout of showers and storms will occur during the
overnight/pre-dawn hours on Tuesday. 850mb winds associated with
the LLJ will increase after midnight across MN. This coupled
with sufficient low level moisture and upper level forcing will
induce scattered showers and storms across the area, generally
across the eastern half of MN and into WI. With 175-225 percent
of normal PWAT values present, the main threat will be heavy
rainfall and localized areas of flash flooding. On-and-off
showers will be possible through the remainder of the morning.

The surface boundary associated with this system will move west to
east across MN Tuesday afternoon/evening with FROPA for the metro
during the evening. An isolated shower/storm will be possible along
this boundary during the afternoon and evening, especially across
southern MN.

.WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

West/northwesterly flow will resume on Wednesday, with much drier
air advecting in from the west. Dew point temperatures will fall
back into the middle 50s with highs in the upper 70s, making for a
really pleasant day. Much of the same can be expected on Thursday.

On Friday, winds will begin to turn more to the southwest. As a
result, moisture values will increase ahead of the next frontal
boundary that will move through Friday evening/overnight timeframe.
Low-end chances of showers/storms return the the forecast on Friday.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 623 PM CDT Mon Sep 7 2026

A line of showers and embedded thunderstorms is oriented
southwest to northeast across Minnesota this evening. Models
have this precip dying off over the next couple of hours before
a strong LLJ kicks in ahead of a cold front and sets off another
round of showers and storms after midnight. The coverage is the
big question, so have opted to stick with PROB30 mentions for
now. Winds have been gusty out of the southeast this evening and
they should slowly trend down and go more southerly and
eventually southwesterly as the front approaches late tomorrow
morning. Outside of the overnight shower chances, VFR conditions
are expected through the period.

KMSP...Showers are approaching from the west and should arrive
sometime in the next 1-2 hours. Kept a mention for LLWS with the
strengthening LLJ overnight and maintained the PROB30 early
tomorrow morning, but did move it back an hour. Winds so
southwesterly late tomorrow and models are hinting at another
round of convection in the evening, but confidence is much too
low to include mention for now.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
WED...VFR. Wind WNW 15G25kts.
THU...VFR. Wind SW 5-10kts.
FRI...VFR. Wind SW 10-15G25kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...LPR
AVIATION...Dye