371
FXUS63 KMPX 240821
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
321 AM CDT Fri Jul 24 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Another prolonged heat wave begins this weekend. An Extreme
  Heat Watch is in effect Saturday through Sunday across
  southern Minnesota, including the metro.

- Occasional low chances for showers and storms exist through
  most of next week. The best chance is Sunday night.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 321 AM CDT Fri Jul 24 2026

Scattered showers have been blossoming across western Minnesota
since yesterday evening. A moisture gradient and a modest LLJ
seem to be the main culprits. These showers may expand eastward
more during the next several hours before weakening by mid
morning. PoPs may need to be increased and expanded east if
current radar trends continue. A stronger mid level disturbance
is passing across northern IA, which has allowed more
widespread and steadier showers south of the border. That wave
is sliding east southeast and those showers will remain to the
south. Later in the day and tonight, a short wave will pass
through ND and northern MN. Storms may fire late this afternoon
across eastern ND and propagate east this evening. Steeper
lapse rates will spread east to the Upper Midwest and a modest
LLJ may allow the storms to continue into parts of central MN
by late evening before weakening.

A large and intense ridge will remain centered over the Four
Corners to southern high Plains region through at least next
week. This lends lower confidence to the forecast locally
compared to when it was centered overhead last week for several
reasons:

1.) Several weak disturbances will traverse the periphery of
the ridge which may spark chances for thunderstorms at any time.
Such disturbances are very difficult to predict more than a
couple days in advance.

2.) Elevated wildfire smoke in the west northwest flow aloft
could somewhat limit temperatures from reaching their max
potential across the northern half of MN and WI.

3.) Any stronger shortwave could beat back the ridge for a day
or so.

Confidence is high enough for heat and humidity to reach
dangerous levels across southern MN and the metro Saturday and
Sunday such that an Extreme Heat Watch has been issued for
those areas. With temperatures well into the 90s and dew points
in the mid to potentially upper 70s, heat indices should range
from 100 to 108. Farther north, vertically integrated smoke
modeling shows higher concentrations across northern MN into
WI, coupled with dew points remaining in the upper 60s. This
should keep the most intense heat at bay, although it is likely
Heat Advisories will be needed.

There is a conditional risk of thunderstorm development Saturday
night. A strengthening LLJ and very steep lapse rates could lead
to this development. However, rising heights and 700 mb temps
likely greater than +12C should limit coverage. It does not
appear anything will develop on a scale that would negatively
impact temperatures for Sunday.

By Sunday night a cold front will approach from the northwest.
An unstable airmass with sufficient shear would be supportive of
thunderstorms. However, the lack of a strong shortwave and a cap
likely remaining could again limit coverage. If storms do
develop, there is a risk of them becoming severe.

Behind the front Monday, winds will turn northwest and drier air
will work in during the afternoon. If this dry air advection
slows, then another day of extreme heat is possible. Confidence
is not high enough to extend the watch through Monday at this
time. The rest of next week looks seasonably hot, but less humid
than this weekend. We will be tallying another long string of
90s to finish out the month. It`s possible more than half this
month will have highs in the 90s, getting us into the top 10
most number of days of 90+ for July.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 321 AM CDT Fri Jul 24 2026

MVFR/IFR cigs across SD will spread northeast to AXN during the
next few hours. The rest of the area should remain VFR through
the period. Scattered showers across western and central MN
continue to spread east and are now entering the metro area.
These will eventually weaken later this morning.

KMSP...Remaining VFR with mid level clouds through much of the
day. Some gusts around 20 kts beginning late morning.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SAT...VFR. Wind SW 5-10 kts.
SUN...VFR, with -TSRA possible late. Wind SSW 10 kts.
MON...VFR. Wind SW becoming NW at 10-15 kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...Extreme Heat Watch from Saturday afternoon through Sunday
     evening for Anoka-Blue Earth-Brown-Carver-Chippewa-Dakota-
     Faribault-Freeborn-Hennepin-Kandiyohi-Lac Qui Parle-Le
     Sueur-Martin-McLeod-Meeker-Nicollet-Ramsey-Redwood-
     Renville-Rice-Scott-Sibley-Steele-Swift-Waseca-Washington-
     Watonwan-Wright-Yellow Medicine.
WI...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Borghoff
AVIATION...Borghoff