617
FXUS63 KMPX 031717
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
1117 AM CST Wed Dec 3 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Below normal temperatures to persist through the weekend, with
  the first widespread sub-zero morning of the season coming
  Thursday morning, followed by near normal temperatures early
  next week.

- A few chances for light snow through this weekend,
  particularly Thursday night with a warm front and then
  Saturday with a cold front, then potentially a larger system
  mid-next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 300 AM CST Wed Dec 3 2025

Surface analysis early this morning depicts a surface low over
western Lake Superior with a cold front sagging SW over eastern-
southern MN into SD, with arctic high pressure centered over
central Saskatchewan province. Aloft, a deep low rotates over
Hudson Bay with a longwave trough axis extended to its
southwest.

This trough axis is helping nudge the cold front off to the
southeast, bringing to an end the overnight light snow which
produced generally around a half inch of snow to much of the WFO
MPX coverage area. As high pressure makes inroads from the
northwest, temperatures will only drop from here on out (a.k.a.
highs for the December 3 calendar day have already been reached
at midnight). Despite an expected decrease in cloud cover
through the day, temperatures will drop to the single digits and
teens by daybreak then plunge to the single digits above and
below zero by sunset later today. The center of the 1035+ mb
high will shift to the SD/MN border tonight, helping promote
radiational cooling conditions which will work in tandem with
the fresh snowpack to force lows early Thursday morning to
around -10F. Winds will not go completely calm, generally in the
2-5mph range, making for wind chills in the -15F to
-20F range. So, although this is not headline criteria, the impacts
of very cold conditions still apply so be sure precautions are taken
if outdoors.

The center of the high will then shift east, just south of
MN/WI, into the Ohio River Valley, allowing for a warmer
return flow on its backside. However, coinciding with this
relative rebound in temperatures will be the arrival of a
clipper low from western Canada and its associated frontal
boundaries. While the low itself will remain north of the
international border Friday-Saturday, its fronts will be dragged
across the Upper Midwest. Modest isentropic lift in advance of
the warm front will spark off snow showers at a minimum, or more
sustained light snow, for areas mainly near and north of I-94
Thursday night. The passage of the warm front will also result
in an upwards bump in temperatures for Friday, going from the
teens on Thursday to the mid-upper 20s on Friday. This warm-up
will be short-lived as the associated cold front will drop
through the region Friday night into Saturday, thus putting
highs back into the teens for the weekend. Saturday is also when
the next chance of light snow comes across the region, with
this swath of snow highlighting mainly along and south of I-94.
Both the Thursday night and Saturday snow events look to have
minor snow accumulations, generally around an inch or less.

More tranquil conditions look to develop behind the front for
the Sunday-Tuesday period as high pressure appears to be the
prevailing weather feature. There also looks to be a more
prolonged rebound in temperatures per model blends, with
temperatures returning to near normal levels for the first part
of next week. There are some indications of a larger, more
organized system on the horizon for the middle of next week,
particularly as model blends put "Chance" PoPs already into the
forecast a week in advance. Many shifts can, and usually do,
occur between now and then but given the heightened blend
agreement this far out, this bears watching to see how it
evolves in the models over the next several days.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1112 AM CST Wed Dec 3 2025

Satellite shows clearing across most of the area as stratus
recedes to the south, leaving us SKC at all sites at or before
00z with EAU taking the longest to clear out. The flurries and
-SN will be gone with the stratus, with SKC continuing through
 most of the period until FEW/SCT250 returns by the final few
 hours. Winds begin stronger with 10-15kt sustained gusting to
 20-23kts, decreasing to less than 5kts overnight.

KMSP...MVFR to start the TAF will quickly erode as satellite
indicates only an hour or two of stratus remaining, and the
stratus already scattering out at that. Gusts to around 20-23kts
will gradually wind down towards 00z as winds shift towards
200-230 by end of period.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
FRI...VFR, chc MVFR/-SN. Wind W 5-10kts.
SAT...MVFR/-SN, chc IFR. Wind N 5-10kts.
SUN...MVFR/-SN early. Wind NE 5-10kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JPC
AVIATION...TDH