699
FXUS63 KMPX 191744
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
1244 PM CDT Sun Jul 19 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- More smoke possible across far eastern Minnesota and Wisconsin
  into tomorrow, see Air Quality Alert for more information.

- Next chance for strong to severe storms late tonight and
  Monday afternoon.

- Turning cooler with near or slightly below normal temperatures
  Tuesday with the hot temperatures returning by next weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 241 AM CDT Sun Jul 19 2026

A shortwave will track from Alberta down into the northern Great
lakes to start this week. This will bring additional heat in
today and tomorrow with cooler air moving in starting on
Tuesday. This overall pattern will also allow for smoke to
spread across much of Wisconsin and could possibly move into
some of eastern Minnesota as well. Recent HRRR smoke runs
continue to favor Wisconsin for the most likely impacts. Consult
Air Quality Alerts from the WI DNR and MPCA for more details. The
surface low associated with the shortwave will stay north of
the international border, but the fronts will extend into the
Upper Midwest and Northern Plains. With a favorable convective
environment ahead of the fronts storms are expected to initiate
in the Dakotas today and across the Midwest tomorrow. Of
importance for us will be the ability of the storms from the
Dakotas to maintain themselves with the assistance of the LLJ as
they head into Minnesota tonight. The most likely scenario for
strong to severe storms for this round would be upscale growth
into an MCS. Due to this storm mode, the main risk would be
damaging winds. Then on Monday what will be the position of the
fronts as CI starts to occur? Depending on how the morning plays
out recovery could stall CI long enough for the front to be
past us. Looking into CAM guidance there remains a spread on
where CI occurs with the highest chances generally out in
western Wisconsin where SPC has an enhanced risk (level 3/5).
Ample CAPE and favorable shear would support supercells with all
modes of severe weather in play (tornado, large hail, and
damaging winds). If the morning storms fail to come to together
the environment could be favorable earlier in the day and that
could allow CI to occur sooner and farther west into parts of
eastern Minnesota where SPC has a slight risk (level 2/5). Warm
air advection ahead the frontal passage will also see heat index
values into the 90s, possibly approaching 100 in southern
Minnesota.

Behind the frontal passage temperatures will be much cooler on
Tuesday with highs slightly below normal in the upper 70s to
lower 80s. Zonal flow also keeps the overall synoptic pattern
looking quiet. This will be a nice break for everyone after a
stretch of seeing frequent heat and/or storms. Looking towards
the global ensembles there remains a lot of spread on when the
next round of rain or storms will occur. Some clustering around
Friday, but it is still widely scattered with little clustering.
So the low PoPs from NBM continue to seem reasonable for this
period. What does have more confidence within the ensemble
systems is a warming trend towards the end of the week. We could
very well see a return to 90s by the next weekend with about
two thirds of the global ensemble members having a high of 90 or
greater next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1240 PM CDT Sun Jul 19 2026

Visibility reductions due to wildfire smoke continue to impact
RNH & EAU to open the 18z period. Followed hi-res &
observational trends to take a more optimistic approach in
removing smoke from RNH early in the period. On the flip side,
it looks like smoke will linger through at least the early
evening at EAU. Next item of note is growing confidence in a
round of thunderstorms at all terminals tonight. Followed
HREF/REFS clustering trends in upgrading PROB30s to TEMPOs at
most sites and also made slight timing adjustments. The passage
of a cold front will end convective chances Monday morning and
winds will turn westerly towards the end of the period.

KMSP...Few more hours of VFR smoke, then a quiet stretch with
high clouds and southerly surface flow. We wanted to message
increasing confidence in a round of convection overnight, so
upgraded the PROB30 to a TEMPO for 2SM TSRA between 8-11z.
Storms should be fairly progressive and will be followed by a
cold frontal passage and associated wind shift to out of the WNW
through the day.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
TUE...VFR. Wind NW 10-15G25 kts.
WED...VFR. Wind N/NW 5 kts.
THU...VFR. Wind SW 5-10 kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...NDC
AVIATION...Strus