116
FXUS63 KMPX 012102
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
302 PM CST Mon Dec 1 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Cold but otherwise relatively quiet weather this week.

- A few chances for light snow/flurries this week, mainly tomorrow
evening into early Wednesday. Another chance for non-accumulating
flurries Thursday into Friday and again over the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 300 PM CST Mon Dec 1 2025

Today has largely turned into a day of low level cloud cover
producing bursts of light snow/flurries which has led to some
visibility reductions mainly in southern Minnesota. Faribault has
been sitting below 5sm with -SN for the last few hours, so a few
reports of a tenth of an inch or two of new accumulation is not out
of the question, however webcams continue to show roadways remaining
clear. Satellite shows a brief pocket of clearing in west-central
Minnesota moving eastwards slowly, however further low to lower-mid
level cloud cover on the heels of the clearing should keep any peeks
of sun short lived this afternoon. With the low level clouds
continuing to linger, the subtle forcing from a passing upper level
trough will be enough to squeeze out further light snow showers that
should remain non accumulating for now. This trough passes across
the region tonight with the airmass unchanged heading into Tuesday.
Northwesterly flow aloft coupled with cold 850mb temperatures will
continue with any weak forcing over the colder temperatures
resulting in flurries and light snow, much like today. The best
overall chance for a dusting to up to a few tenths of an inch of
accumulation will arrive tomorrow evening into early Wednesday
morning in central Minnesota as a subtle shortwave moves over the
colder low level temperatures, producing enough lift within the DGZ
for a few bursts of heavier snowfall. Area-wise, we are only looking
at local accumulations with most seeing flurries at best, with
western WI seeing the best overall chance to pick up a few tenths of
an inch ending early Wednesday.

There is little overall change to the pattern with the exception
being a lobe of even colder arctic air pushing southwards Wednesday
evening into Thursday morning, resulting in the coldest temperatures
we have seen so far this year with low temperatures in the blended
guidance ranging from around -8 to -15F with the metro being
the warmest. As this is blended guidance, we will likely see
these numbers decrease slightly as we get a bit closer as bias
correction catches up to the cold, with 850mb temp anomalies
from -10 to -15C. The main difference in the deterministic
guidance is the strength of the surface high pressure keeping
the arctic air locked in, ranging from 1035-1040mb. This
realistically will not have a huge implication on the low
temperatures, with the 925-850mb cold layer playing the largest
role alongside our recent snowpack helping our lows crash even
lower than they would over exposed ground. Much like today, the
rest of the period will contain cosmetic/nuisance flurry chances
that do little aside from briefly reducing visibility with no
accumulation expected as of now, mainly over the weekend as
guidance is showing a weak trough moving across the region
midday Saturday through Sunday. Overall, the period is expected
to be cold with minimal active weather besides the flurry
chances.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1135 AM CST Mon Dec 1 2025

An area of IFR and low MVFR cigs are spreading across south-
central Minnesota into western Wisconsin. Anywhere with these
lower clouds will be able to produce -SHSN this afternoon.
Impacts are expected to remain low, though a few sites have
dropped to near 1-2SM already. These reductions in visibility have
been quick, only lasting around 10-20 minutes for any given
location.

More widespread ceilings around 800-1500ft will spread across
the region into tonight and tomorrow morning. Models suggest
that we will begin to scatter out late tomorrow morning from
west to east, though mid-high level clouds will quickly fill in
behind the clearing. Winds generally remain at or below 10 kts
at 180-220 degrees.

KMSP...Ceilings are expected to hover right around 1000ft much
of the period, dropping into IFR conditions off and on this
afternoon and tonight. Light snow showers will continue for a
few hours this afternoon, only reducing visibility below 6SM for
short durations at most.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
WED...MVFR. Chc -SN early. Wind NW 10-15kts.
THU...VFR. Wind SW 5-10kts.
FRI...VFR, chc MVFR late. Chc -SN late. Wind SW 5-10kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...TDH
AVIATION...BED