774
FXUS63 KMPX 191936
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
236 PM CDT Sat Oct 19 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Well above average temperatures are expected through early
  next week.

- Only a small chance for rain arrives late Tuesday into
  Wednesday with conditions remaining dry overall.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 234 PM CDT Sat Oct 19 2024

A stalled frontal boundary has allowed a narrow swath of Minnesota
from roughly Granite Falls through St. Cloud to Hinckley to pick up
a couple hundredths to a tenth of an inch of precip over the past 6
hours. Otherwise, most have seen overcast skies through much of the
day, with some clearing moving into far western Minnesota as of the
1pm hour. Temperature wise, central Minnesota has struggled to reach
the low 50s while upper 60s and a few 70s are more common across
southern Minnesota and western Wisconsin. Zooming in, there`s a
fairly sharp gradient across the Twin Cities metro with upper 50s
across northwestern Hennepin County to near 70 in southeastern
Dakota County. In any case, clouds will continue to decrease through
the evening hours as the boundary washes out over the region,
setting the stage for ample sunshine and much warmer temperatures
for the second half of the weekend. 850mb temperature anomalies of
10-15C are expected across the northern half of the CONUS tomorrow
and Monday. BUFKIT soundings suggest we will be able to
efficiently mix down that warmer air with highs tomorrow
jumping into the low 80s, which is more than 20 degrees above
normal. Records for daytime highs and record warm lows may be in
jeopardy for all three of our climate sites into Monday.
Despite the warmth and the return of some more appreciable
southerly winds tomorrow, fire weather concerns remain fairly
low with RH values bottoming out in the mid 30s as the southerly
flow helps to pull in some Gulf moisture. Monday will need to
be watched, however, with RH values forecast to fall below 30%
across the southern third of Minnesota. Temperatures will once
again be in the low to mid 80s, but records appear to be well
out of reach (upper 80s).

Things begin to shift by Monday night with a 500mb cutoff low
ejecting out of the Rockies and into the Central Plains and a
shortwave dropping down into the Dakotas. This associated cold front
will sweep across Minnesota later in the day with a small chance of
some showers across central Minnesota and western Wisconsin. The
better chance for showers will lie closer to the surface low across
northern Minnesota. An overnight uptick in PoPs is possible area
wide with a LLJ kicking in through early Wednesday morning. Still,
any meaningful precip will be hard to come by through the remainder
of the period. Temperature wise, it will feel much more fall-like
for at least a couple of days with highs settling back into 50s and
60s to end the work week. However, ensembles suggest we might not be
done with the 70s just yet, with another warm up possible by next
weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1203 PM CDT Sat Oct 19 2024

Showers across central MN will continue moving northeast during
the early afternoon. IFR cigs across western MN should improve
throughout the next few hours with clearing skies this evening.
Mid level clouds may linger into the overnight across WI and
southern MN. Southwest winds will ease tonight, then increase
again after 16Z with some gusts of 20 kts also possible.

KMSP...The bulk of the showers should remain north of the terminal
today with VFR conditions continuing.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SUN...VFR. Wind SW 10-15 kts.
MON...VFR. Wind S 10-15 kts.
TUE...VFR. Wind SW 5-10 kt

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Dye
AVIATION...Borghoff