183
FXUS63 KMPX 071800
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
1200 PM CST Sun Dec 7 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Cold to end the weekend with highs only in the single digits
  in MN on today.

- Multiple chances for snow the first half of this week, with
  the most significant being Tuesday into Tuesday night.

- Cold temperatures return to end this week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 228 AM CST Sun Dec 7 2025

Current surface observations show areas of light snow persisting
over southern MN as just enough saturation within the DGZ is
allowing the development of snowflakes. However, a majority of the
snow has ended as yesterday`s clipper system moves off to the east.
Both our office and the MSP airport received 0.5" of snow from
Saturday`s system, but those are the only reports we currently have.
CAA is already occurring as north-northwesterly flow has developed
in the wake of this system. West-central MN will see lows fall to
near -10 F by sunrise while elsewhere will be in the negative single
digits to near zero. Wind chill values across west-central MN will
also fall to near -20 F providing a very brisk start to Sunday.
Skies will attempt to clear as surface high pressure slides
overhead. But, the extra sun won`t help much as highs will only
reach the single digits to low teens. Cloudy skies will return this
evening as a weak shortwave within the northwesterly flow
approaches. Light snow will push east into western MN by this
evening and slide southeast into southern MN through tonight before
dissipating. As said, this will be light snow so amounts will
likely be less than an inch. Still, partially snow covered roads
could result. Lows Sunday night will fall to within 5 degrees
of zero.

Temperatures begin to rebound Monday as westerly flow develops over
the Northern Plains allowing for WAA to occur. Highs Monday will
warm into mostly the 20s but near 30 values are expected across
southwest MN. Another clipper will encroach upon northwest MN by
Monday evening. Latest guidance favors the clipper`s surface low
track from GFK, to just south of DLH, and then into central WI. With
most of the precip shield located to the east/northeast of the low,
most of our area shouldn`t see too many impacts from this system.
However, WAA occurring ahead of the low will most likely cause some
snow to occur from central MN into west-central WI late Monday
afternoon into Monday night. Once again, forecast snow amounts don`t
look too heavy but another 1" (to even 2") is possible from BRD to
RCX.

Tuesday continues to look like the most interesting period of the
forecast. Forecast models show another, much stronger clipper
nearing western MN by Tuesday afternoon, traveling southeast through
our CWA, and into the lower Great Lakes by Wednesday morning. A
rapidly deepening surface low will move in advance of the strong
shortwave and the surface low`s track will be very important for
where and what types of precipitation fall. Strong WAA is forecast
to occur to the south and east of the surface low such that surface
temperatures will warm into the mid to even upper 30s. To the north
of the low, temperatures will be comfortably below freezing such
that a rain to snow transition is expected as we go from the warm
sector to the cold sector. A brief transition to freezing rain is
also possible as forecast soundings show a warm nose overrunning the
subfreezing surface temperatures. Guidance tends to produce about
0.4-0.7" of QPF within the heaviest swath of precipitation. If snow
ratios are near climatology, a few county-wide strip of 4-6" (to
possibly 7") of snow seems like a good possibility somewhere in our
CWA. Current model consensus tracks the surface low basically along
the I-94 corridor, such that the heaviest snow would be along and
just north of this corridor. Definitely think that winter headlines
will be needed in the near future for at least our central MN into
west-central WI counties. This angry clipper looks like it could
pack quite the punch.

After mid-week, the forecast looks much drier as a very cold air
mass from northwest Canada should slide into the Northern Plains.
The end of the week looks quite brutal as long-range ensemble
forecast highs struggling to exceed single digits for both Friday
and Saturday. Meanwhile, nighttime lows should plummet well below
zero. If breezier winds can occur overnight, cold weather headlines
may be warranted, particularly over western MN.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1133 AM CST Sun Dec 7 2025

Skies are mostly clear this morning, with a VFR mid-level deck
moving into the area. MVFR cigs are to be expected overnight
tonight and will also come with another round of light snow
west of I-35. Any snowfall that is seen tonight will come in at
a half inch total or less. Dendritic growth zones on the order
of 12k feet deep will make it pretty easy for any cloud layer to
make snow tonight. Stayed close to a RAP timing for the snow
potential tonight.

KMSP...Another light snow event overnight tonight, with best chances
at MSP between 2 and 6AM Monday morning. Accumulations will be
generally a half inch or less during the overnight hours. MVFR
cigs likely from snow onset through most of the day Monday.
Winds will become more southerly through the period, increasing
in strength as well.


/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
MON...MVFR/VFR cigs. Wind S 10-15 kts.
TUE...MVFR/IFR late with -RASN. Wind S 10-15 kts, bcmg NW late.
WED...MVFR cigs. Wind NW 10-15 kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CTG
AVIATION...PV