361
FXUS63 KMPX 222331
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
631 PM CDT Fri Aug 22 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Overall a drier evening is expected, although a few scattered
  showers are possible.

- A cold front passes through the area late tonight, leading to
  much cooler & drier conditions into early next week.

- Isolated afternoon showers are likely Saturday & SUnday across
  eastern Minnesota & western Wisconsin.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 244 PM CDT Fri Aug 22 2025

Satellite & radar trends this afternoon continue to point
towards & drier evening than previously forecast, with any
appreciable showers & thunderstorms remaining over northern
Minnesota & Wisconsin. A few popup showers are still possible
this evening as we get a few hours of solar heating from breaks
in the cloud cover, but we`re talking a 10-20% chance of a
brief shower for any given location. Dew points will remain
muggy around d70 degrees through this evening, but relief is on
the way as a cold front passes through the area late tonight.

We get an early taste of fall this weekend into early next week
as cool Canadian high pressure moves in behind the cold front,
leading to temperatures around 10 degrees below normal through
Tuesday. Even better news will be the expected lack of any dense
smoke from Canadian wild fires that has spoiled prior cool-
downs this summer. High temperatures are only expected to range
from the mid to upper 60s along with very comfortable dew
points in the 40s to low 50s. Overnight lows will be coldest
Monday & Tuesday morning when high pressure is centered
overhead, with widespread lows in the 40s expected & even some
30s possible across rural low-lying areas of central Minnesota &
western Wisconsin. We will have to watch out for some
diurnally-driven isolated showers Saturday & Sunday afternoon
given elevated instability from cold temperatures & cyclonic
flow aloft. These would be brief & hit or miss, so we shouldn`t
see much of a damper on what looks to be once of the nicest
weekends of the summer.

Temperatures gradually return to more seasonable values as high
pressure exits east of the region & southerly flow returns
midweek. Our stretch of dry weather looks to continue with no
major weather systems expected across the upper midwest into
next weekend

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 631 PM CDT Fri Aug 22 2025

Skies will clear early this evening. Stratocu will develop mid
morning Saturday, possibly at MVFR levels initially, then rising
and settling to 3500-4000 ft for the rest of the day. West
northwest winds will also increase mid morning, with gusts 20-25
kts through the day.

KMSP...No additional concerns.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SUN...VFR. Wind NW 10-15kts.
MON...VFR. Wind NW 5-10kts.
TUE...VFR. Wind NW 5 kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...ETA
AVIATION...Borghoff