494
FXUS63 KMPX 281759
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
1159 AM CST Fri Nov 28 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A long duration winter storm begins this evening across
  southwestern Minnesota. Snow will spread over southern-eastern
  Minnesota through western Wisconsin tonight through Saturday
  evening. Multiple inches of snow are likely, especially across
  southern Minnesota.

- A Winter Storm warning has been expanded northward in
  Minnesota to include Redwood County over to Goodhue County.
  A Winter Weather Advisory has been issued for portions of
  western Wisconsin late Friday night through Saturday.

- Temperatures turn colder behind this early weekend system,
  with highs in the teens and lows a few degrees on either
  side of zero Sunday and Monday. Wind chills will drop below
  zero both mornings.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 350 AM CST Fri Nov 28 2025

In the very near term, all is quiet early this morning. An area
of low stratus covering portions of northern and eastern
Minnesota through western Wisconsin has helped keep temperatures
in the lower 20s versus the clear slot over much of western and
southern Minnesota, where temps currently are in the teens to
single digits. A few isolated pockets of flurries are occurring
this morning mainly east of the I-35 corridor. These pockets of
snowfall are not expected to produce anything more than a trace.

Our eyes remain focused on the evolution of our next system
arriving today. An upper-level trough located over the
Intermountain West will continue to deepen as it moves ESE`ward
over the course of today. As this occurs, a surface low develops
just east of the Rockies which will aid in providing warm
advection up through the Northern Plains. Frontogenesis occurs
first over the Dakotas this afternoon producing light snowfall
which then moves into southwestern Minnesota later this evening.
By early Saturday, the upper-level trough digs over Iowa and
then ejects the aforementioned surface low into Central Plains.
Snowfall coverage will become widespread through the course of
the day on Saturday across southern Minnesota and into western
Wisconsin. As mentioned in the previous discussion, this system
will be driven by an inverted trough which will allow for
isentropic upglide to occur during much of Saturday. What this
means is that snowfall duration is expected to persist through
much of Saturday. Cold dry air moves in quickly after the low
passes to our south. Snow coverage will decrease Saturday
evening across western Minnesota followed by eastern Minnesota
and western Wisconsin Saturday night. After blending in latest
guidance, snowfall totals have increased farther north into
Minnesota and Wisconsin. Heaviest snowfall totals remain fixed
across southern Minnesota where 7-10" could accumulate Saturday.
Farther north is where upgrades in headlines were needed. Given
the uptick in forecasted snow totals, Redwood County over to
Goodhue County were upgraded to a Winter Storm Warning. The
Winter Weather Advisory was expanded slightly to now include
Swift County in Minnesota and St. Croix County over to Chippewa
County in Wisconsin then south. Areas within the advised areas
can expected 3 to 6 inches of snow with a sharp gradient of 2 to
4 inches along the northern periphery of the advisory area.
Even the Twin Cities metro will get in on the appreciable north-
to-south gradient of snowfall, with the northern metro closer
to the 3-4" amounts while the southern metro will likely receive
closer to the 5-6" amounts.

Given the track of this low pressure system being well south of
our immediate area, Canadian high pressure may at times undercut
some of the snow development at times. Snowfall rates for this
event are expected to be on the lighter side thanks to the lack
of any nearby mesoscale feature to force heavier rates. Winds
continue to appear below 20 mph mitigating concerns for blowing
snow potential. After this system passes, temperatures will
remain cold for the first half of the week with highs in the
teens and lows in the single digits to a few degrees below zero.
Wind chills these mornings will likely fall near or below zero.
A short-lived warmup occurs Wednesday back into the 20s however
a dry cold front kicks us back into the teens Thursday. A
clipper moves through the northern plains late next week which
provides our next potential of precip.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1145 AM CST Fri Nov 28 2025

Aviation related weather concerns remain low through the
remainder of the daylight hours. Generally VFR with light winds,
though a slow moving MVFR stratus deck between 2-3k feet
remains over RNH/EAU late this morning.

The forecast focus will shift to an incoming long duration
light snow event for the start of the weekend. Leaned on latest
hi-res guidance to adjust arrival times of the first snowflakes
this evening/overnight via PROB30s. Snow will come in two
general waves: 1) the first batch of light snow is forecast to
arrive at RWF late this afternoon and spread east towards MKT
after 00z. Northeast expansion of the snow band will introduce
flakes at AXN/STC/MSP near/after 06z. 2) A secondary push from
the south will bring heavier snowfall rates (0.5/hr) starting
after daybreak and lifting north through the end of the period.
This is the period when visibility will be most greatly reduced,
with rates that will likely yield visibility below 1-2 miles.

Cigs will gradually lower with the arrival of the initial wave
of snow showers. It`s likely that IFR or lower visibility will
accompany the secondary push and will stick around the longest
across the southern MN terminals RWF/MKT. Winds will be light
through the night before increasing out of the ENE through
tomorrow afternoon. The bulk of the accumulating snow will occur
just beyond our 24-hr TAF windows, with total accumulations of
3-6" at RWF/MKT, 2-5" at MSP/EAU, 1-4" at RNH, and up to an
inch or so at AXN.

KMSP...Main adjustment to the 18z TAF was to slightly delay the
onset time of VFR -SHSN via the PROB30. Anticipate
flurries/light snow for for a while after onset, with little
accumulation through daybreak. Snowfall rates will increase
Saturday morning, with the heaviest rates for this event
(0.5/hr) set to arrive late morning and continue through the
afternoon. MVFR cigs and IFR visibility will be the theme during
the period of accumulating snow. Winds turn NNE and may gust
between 15-20 knots tomorrow afternoon. Total snow accumulation
between 2-5" expected by late tomorrow evening.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SUN...VFR. Wind NW 10-15kts.
MON...VFR. Wind SW 5-10kts.
TUE...VFR. MVFR ceilings possible. Wind SW 5-10kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...Winter Weather Advisory from 6 PM this evening to midnight CST
     Saturday night for Chippewa-Lac Qui Parle-Renville-Sibley-
     Swift-Yellow Medicine.
     Winter Weather Advisory from midnight tonight to midnight CST
     Saturday night for Carver-Dakota-Hennepin-Kandiyohi-
     McLeod-Meeker-Ramsey-Scott-Washington-Wright.
     Winter Storm Warning from 6 PM this evening to midnight CST
     Saturday night for Blue Earth-Brown-Faribault-Freeborn-Le
     Sueur-Martin-Nicollet-Redwood-Rice-Steele-Waseca-Watonwan.
     Winter Storm Warning from midnight tonight to 6 AM CST Sunday
     for Goodhue.
WI...Winter Weather Advisory from 3 AM Saturday to 6 AM CST Sunday
     for Chippewa-Dunn-Eau Claire-Pepin-Pierce-St. Croix.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Dunleavy
AVIATION...Strus