730
FXUS63 KMPX 111150
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
650 AM CDT Thu Jun 11 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Widespread rain showers expected today.

- A break from the heat & humidity over the next 7 days. Below
  normal temperatures are likely with high temperatures in the
  70s.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 230 AM CDT Thu Jun 11 2026

Much cooler & drier airmass will settle into the Upper Midwest today
and is forecast to stick around well into next week. Today`s
forecast will be cooler with widespread rain showers across much of
the forecast area. A quick moving sfc low will trek along the sfc
cold frontal boundary that stretches from Iowa through Wisconsin
into northern Michigan. That will place us on the cold side of the
sfc low meaning we`ll end up in the deformation region. This means
we`ll see light to moderate rain showers with most locations
receiving precipitation at some point today. Rain will begin by mid-
morning and wrap up mid-late afternoon. QPF amounts will vary
with lighter amounts across western and central Minnesota - up
to a quarter inch. Higher amounts over southern and eastern
Minnesota into western Wisconsin - up to half an inch.
Temperatures only warm into the mid 70s with cloud cover around
much of the day. Behind this system, we`ll see a transition to a
much cooler and drier weather.

Aloft, the pattern shift will be driven by persistent troughing over
the Hudson Bay in Canada and ridging over the West Coast. The ridge
will slowly retrograde from the western US to the Gulf of Alaska
region by the end of the period. This would be an ideal winter
weather pattern for cold and snow if it was January, but in Summer
it`s going to usher in a rather pleasant stretch. Ensemble guidance
continues to paint temperatures 5 to 10 degrees below normal through
the middle of next week. That`ll translate into high temperatures in
the 70s and low temperatures in the 40s and 50s. This will be a nice
break from the tropical-like airmass that has been in place the last
week or so. If we look ahead to the end of the month guidance is
hinting at the development of the monsoonal ridge over the SW CONUS.
This should open the door to a warmer, more humid pattern for the
last week of June.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 631 AM CDT Thu Jun 11 2026

VFR conditions with increasing BKN to OVC high clouds to start
the period. Light rain showers will continue to move SW to NE
across the area through the morning hours. TEMPO groups have
been added to all TAFS due to -SHRA, lowering CIGs, and minor
reductions to VIS. This rain shower activity will lead to MVFR
flight categories due to lowering CIGs and VIS between 4-6SM
through the mid/late morning and afternoon hours. Through the
duration of this rain shower activity, an isolated lightning
strike or two will be possible. Confidence is too low at this
moment to mention TS in TAFs. Rain will come to an end by the
evening timeframe and MN terminals will improve to VFR, but WI
terminals will likely remain MVFR as low clouds stick around
later into the evening/early overnight hours. Winds light at 3-5
knots and VRB in direction through 14-15Z, becoming west to
eventually northwest during the late morning and afternoon hours
at 8-13 knots with isolated gusts to 18-23 knots. Winds will
decrease during the late evening and overnight timeframe.

KMSP...Rain showers expected between 15-22Z (give or take an
hour on each side of that timeframe), but rainfall rates
shouldn`t be heavy enough to bring greater impacts. CIGs will
fall MVFR categories during the late morning and afternoon
timeframe. Conditions will improve to VFR after 22Z.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
FRI...VFR. Wind W at 10-15 kts with gusts to 20-25 kts.
SAT...VFR. Wind NW at 10-15 kts.
SUN...VFR. Wind NW at 12-17 kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BPH
AVIATION...LPR