710
FXUS63 KMPX 292016
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
316 PM CDT Sun Jun 29 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Severe risk has diminished for this afternoon for scattered
  thunderstorms that are developing.

- Quieter weather expected to start the week, especially on Tuesday.

- Next period of active weather looks to come at the end of next
  week, with a possible frontal passage for the Fourth of July.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 316 PM CDT Sun Jun 29 2025

Surface analysis and MPX radar imagery at 2pm showed a cold front
stretched out from between New Ulm and Mankato, up to the Lake
Minnetonka region and off toward Siren in northwest WI. We`ve seen
dewpoints pool up around 70 along this boundary, with 1000-1500 j/kg
of mlCAPE noted on the SPC Mesoanalysis. The wind shift along the
front is very gradual, so the forcing is weak, with scattered
convection expected through the afternoon across eastern MN within
the plume of higher surface dewpoints. Deep shear is less than 30
kts, so we just don`t have a sufficient combination of forcing,
instability, and shear to drive a severe threat. That severe threat
is better to our east. The very moist and unstable airmass we had
Saturday is over from eastern IA up into central WI today, which is
where mlCAPE is up in the 2000-3000 j/kg range and convection is
much more robust.

Zooming out a bit, the main trough that has been the primary driver
of the weather the last couple of days is still up across Manitoba
and Saskatchewan down into eastern Montana and Wyoming. This trough
will pass across the upper MS Valley Monday afternoon and will still
provide us with two more opportunities for precip. First comes
tonight as a shortwave is forecast to shoot out east of the trough
from Nebraska into Iowa. Model spread with how much and where precip
with this wave falls is still pretty large, but we could see some
showers/storms come out of SoDak tonight, moving across southern MN
through the morning on Monday. The other chance for precip with this
trough comes Monday afternoon as the cold trough aloft moves
overhead, with diurnal activity expected. CAMs today have backed off
quite a bit on the coverage with diurnal activity on Monday, so we
limited PoPs to 30%, with the highest PoPs still north of I-94.

Tuesday, a surface high moves through and we`re still expecting a
dry day. Wednesday sees a weak cold front drop down from Canada,
which may have just enough forcing with existing moisture and
instability to pop a few storms. Thursday sees rising heights and
what is looking increasingly likely to be a dry day before heat and
humidity crank up for the Fourth with an uptick in southerly winds.
NBM wind forecast shows a cold front working across the upper MS
Valley Friday night into Saturday. The timing of the front will be
key to whether or not your fireworks display will go off without a
hitch, but we are already seeing NBM with likely PoPs for Friday
night, so it is looking increasing likely that you may have to
include thunderstorms into your Independence Day plans. Given highs
in the upper 80s and dewpoints in the lower 70s, any activity with
the front will pose a severe risk as well.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1256 PM CDT Sun Jun 29 2025

Biggest change for this period is a general decrease in coverage
of convection this afternoon in the CAMs, as a result, pulled
any precip mention from the TAFs. That`s not to say we`ll be
dry, it just doesn`t meet the PROB30 threshold for inclusion.
The front at the start of the period is just west of MSP & MKT
and will slowly slide east through the afternoon. However, the
wind shift along the boundary is very gradual, with weak
forcing, hence the lack of precipitation being generated by the
CAMs. Tonight, a shortwave looks to track across Neb into Iowa,
which could bring some showers into southern MN Monday morning,
but there`s a lot of model spread as to whether or not will see
precip across southern MN Monday morning, so kept RWF/MKT dry
until we get better confidence in whether or not this precip
will occur.

KMSP...Although the TAF is dry, you can`t completely rule out a
shra/tsra this afternoon and again Monday afternoon, but
coverage of precip in CAMs both days is too thin to include in
the TAF at this time.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
TUE...VFR. Wind NW 10-15 kts.
WED...VFR. Chc TSRA/MVFR. Wind SW 5-10 kts.
THU...VFR. Wind SSE 5-10 kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...MPG
AVIATION...MPG