005
FXUS63 KMPX 112329
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
629 PM CDT Fri Sep 11 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A few thunderstorms will develop late this afternoon and tonight,
primarily north of I-94. A few storms could produce large hail,
damaging winds, and potentially a tornado.

- Widespread rain arrives Monday, but forecast rain amounts have
trended lower.

- Turning much cooler this weekend and next week with highs in
  the 60s to low 70s.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 126 PM CDT Fri Sep 11 2026

Despite being a tad on the breezy side, its turning out to be a
nice albeit warm September afternoon. Current temps range in
the 80s and are forecast to reach the upper 80s across western
MN this afternoon where warm advection is currently strongest.
Wind gusts continue to peak between 30-40 mph along the Buffalo
Ridge whereas most other sites report gusts between 20-30 mph
this afternoon. Winds are expected to decrease late tonight into
early tomorrow once a cold front tracks through the northern
plains later this evening. Latest water vapor imagery shows a
deepening ridge extending north and east of the Great Lakes
region while an elongated troughing pattern stretches from the
northern plains over the PacNorthwest. Embedded within this
troughing pattern is a low-level wave which will serve as our
next feature of interest over the next 12-24 hours. Skies this
afternoon our ahead of the wave will gradually increase from
west for the remainder of the evening.

Current mesoanalysis features an h85 low located over central
South Dakota. Ahead of this low, a strong 40-50kt LLJ is
transporting warmer and moist air up into the northern plains.
Additionally, a SW to NW oriented swath of mixed layer
instability of ~1000 J/kg exists which has allowed for continued
isolated convective pulses on radar. Luckily, enough inhibition
is in place to keep any precip development isolated and brief.
However, that will not be the case as head into later this
afternoon and evening. The aforementioned h85 low will continue
to track east into MN through the rest of today. As this occurs,
low-level forcing becomes maximized while CINH erodes, and
lapse rates deepen to 7.0 to 7.5 deg C/km. This environment will
allow for better organized convection to initiate over west-
central and northern MN. Since early this morning, the SPC has
reduced the Slight Risk (level 2 of 5) spatially to be confined
more to central and northern Minnesota this evening. Forecast
guidance continues to advertise much of the strongest convection
mainly north of a line that extends from Morris to St. Cloud.
Early in the event, forecast hodographs advertise sufficient
effective- layer shear combined with low LCLs nearing 1km. Thus
any supercells that manage to get their act together could be
conducive enough to support a tornado or two and large hail. As
the line continues east into central and eastern MN this
evening, the line transitions into more a of damaging wind gust
threat. By tonight, the wave driving these storms reaches
western WI. Although forcing will not be as strong as previous
hours, rain showers and sub-severe storms are expected to
develop along the axis of residual instability. Total QPF will
vary depending on where the strongest rainfall occurs this
evening but areas north and west of a line from Mora down to
Appleton could see a couple hundredths to a quarter of an inch
of rain with higher localized amounts. Areas across western
Wisconsin could see a hundredth or tenth of an inch.

Most of the weekend appears fairly tranquil. Winds will remain a
tad breezy out of the NW on Saturday morning near 20kts but
will decrease as surface high pressure becomes the dominant
feature through the daylight hours. Skies during this time
should remain mostly clear. By Saturday night, a narrow band of
forcing will move across southern MN that is part of upper-level
troughing over Hudson Bay area. Scattered rain showers could
develop mostly across southern Minnesota during this time but
the majority of Sunday features partly cloudy to mostly clear
skies by the afternoon. Its isn`t until Monday that we see the
arrival of our next widespread rainfall chances. A stacked 998mb
low will sweep across the International Border. Widespread
rainfall will move from west to east throughout much of the day.
Most precip looks in the form of rain and some embedded thunder
however, areas along and south of the I-90 corridor could see a
stronger storm or two Monday evening. QPF for this episode
continue to trend downward. The NBM and EPS have favored
widespread 1-2" rain totals but the more realistic solutions
appear with the GEFS. Thus have shifted the 1-2" swath farther
south and east in southern MN into western WI. Areas north of
this region would more so observe a half inch to closer to an
inch.

If you`re a lover of "sweater weather" or enjoy a cup of hot apple
cider then the temperature forecast will make you happy. Saturday
begins our downward temp trend. Forecast highs will only warm into
the low to mid-70s and then even cooler on Sunday in the upper 60s,
with lows in the mid to upper 40s. But wait there`s more! This
cooler airmass should hang around through much of next week
with highs mainly in the upper 60s and lows near 50.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 623 PM CDT Fri Sep 11 2026

Satellite continues to favor development of -TSRA over western
MN that will move eastwards over the first 6-8 hours of the
period, with the best chances at AXN/STC with lower chances
elsewhere. -TSRA in eastern South Dakota will need to hold
together to reach RWF/MKT/MSP/RNH/EAU, which to this point has
not been handled well in the CAMs to have enough confidence to
include. Gusty 160-190 winds will slowly diminish through the
period, dwindling below 20kts towards the end of the period
after shifting towards 280-320 behind the cold front. CIGS will
generally only occur within -TSRA, also containing the best
chance for IFR/MVFR.

KMSP...Omitted any mention of -TSRA for now, with the line of
storms in eastern South Dakota the thing to watch. This has not
been resolved well within CAMs and may need a short term AMD
should it make it this far east. Our thinking right now is that
we should be free of any -SHRA/-TSRA at MSP, with these storms
dying off before reaching us.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SUN...VFR, chc -SHRA early. Wind NW 5kts.
MON...-SHRA/MVFR likely, chc IFR. Wind SE 10-15G30kts.
TUE...VFR. Wind NW 5-10kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Dunleavy
AVIATION...TDH