821
FXUS63 KMPX 150526
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
1226 AM CDT Sat Aug 15 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered showers expected this evening into tomorrow morning.
  Most areas will not see much rain.

- Chance for storms tomorrow evening along a weak cold front.

- Temperatures this weekend and into next will hover right
  around the seasonal average for the middle of August.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 919 PM CDT Fri Aug 14 2026

We`ve increased PoPs fairly significantly (to 50-60 percent) for
Saturday afternoon and evening. Stratus is expected to linger
for much of the day which may keep temperatures somewhat cool,
but rich low level moisture will advect in by afternoon which
should allow the cap to break. As a cold front and mid level
disturbance approach, this uncapped atmosphere in the presence
of 2-2.25 inch pwats should allow for scattered to numerous
thunderstorms to develop. MBE velocities of only around 10 kts
and the degree of moisture present will bring the risk of
torrential downpours. Shear will be somewhat weak and mid level
lapse rates will be poor, so the probability of severe weather
remains low.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 130 PM CDT Fri Aug 14 2026

Any sort of interesting weather remains south this afternoon,
tied to the surface boundary across Iowa, Illinois, and
Indiana. We will start to see this pattern finally break down
as a midlevel wave develops and spreads east from the Canadian
Rockies tonight. Spotty showers are expected tonight and
Saturday as low level moisture increases in response to the
developing low pressure tied to the midlevel wave. Very little
lightning is expected tonight given the lack of instability,
though increasing dewpoints tomorrow ahead of the cold front
should be enough to build in a thousand or so joules of MUCAPE.
Whether or not we`ll see any storms actually develop is
uncertain, with only a few CAMs developing storms at all along
the front, and even less having them develop across Minnesota.
The bullish solution would be something like the 14.12Z run of
the RRFS. During this whole window (Friday afternoon - Saturday
evening), we`ve kept PoPs capped at around 30 to 40% at any
given time. In reality, the chance of precipitation is pretty
high throughout the entire timeframe, but the confidence in the
exact timing for any exact point is very low.

Heading into Sunday, the front will have moved through and winds
will increase out of the northwest. Slightly cooler, and much
drier air will advect in. This will also help clear out any
lingering wildfire smoke and cloud cover, making for the best
day of the weekend.

For next week, Monday starts out similar to Sunday, with highs
in the low 80s and dewpoints in the 50s and 60s. We will start
to see a low level response to a deepening low pressure across
Canada, increasing our winds out of the southwest. By Tuesday,
dewpoints will increase well into the 60s and low 70s again,
setting the stage for our next chance for notable precip as a
strong cold front looks to sweep down from Canada. The latest
NBM and WPC QPF amounts peak around 1-2" across southern MN.
This is probably the area that needs it the least given the
current drought outlook, but it is good to see rain shifting
north from the areas that have been slammed the past few days.
Should our moisture flow get cutoff by any storms to our south,
we may see this number trend down. But as of now, this is our
best chance for heavy rain. CSU`s MLP severe probability
forecasts do also highlight low end chances for organized
convection both Monday and Tuesday.

Surface high pressure should move in across the area again
behind the fropa, resulting in a couple of quieter days to end
the work week.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1159 PM CDT Fri Aug 14 2026

MVFR to IFR conditions continue through the overnight with cigs
around 1-3 kft, with areas below 1 kft. This thick layer of low
stratus will continue through the morning, with improvement
during the late morning and afternoon hours. Winds generally out
of the SE at 7-12 knots with gusts to 20 knots will persist
through the period with wind direction becoming S to SW during
the afternoon and evening. Another round of showers and isolated
storms will be possible during the afternoon and evening,
confidence is low regarding storm potential so no mention of TS.
PROB30 for -SHRA has been added during the late afternoon and
evening timeframe.

KMSP...MVFR to IFR cigs prevail through the mid morning hours
with improvements by afternoon. Another round of showers will be
possible late afternoon and evening timeframe.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SUN...VFR. Wind NW 10kts.
MON...VFR, chc -TSRA late. Wind SW 5-10kts.
TUE...MVFR/-SHRA likely, chc IFR/-TSRA. Wind SW 5-10kts.


&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Borghoff
DISCUSSION...BED
AVIATION...LPR