995
FXUS63 KMPX 311133
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
633 AM CDT Sun Aug 31 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dense fog with a quarter mile or less visibilities over much
  of west-central Minnesota this morning.

- Best chance for organized precipitation comes with a cold
  front Tuesday afternoon and evening. Much cooler temperatures
  and gusty winds expected behind the front to end the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 240 AM CDT Sun Aug 31 2025

Dense fog has developed again this morning, but it is more
confined to west-central MN this time around. Visibilities
have been at a quarter mile or less since 10-11pm, and are not
expected to widely improve until a few hours after sunset when
surface temps can warm above saturation. Showers will remain to
our south and west, making for another pleasant day across the
region with limited cloud cover.

Monday should be largely similar to today, with highs in the 70s
and pleasant conditions to end the long weekend. The
strengthening trough will start to dig down from Canada,
ushering in lobes of vorticity ahead of the main wave. This spin
could provide enough forcing for scattered storms to develop
Monday evening, primarily across western MN. The more
widespread, and higher confidence, rain will come along the
robust cold front Tuesday afternoon and evening. Winds will turn
out of the southwest by Tuesday morning, but a lack of moisture
transport ahead of the front is expected to limit QPF and any
severe potential.

The main impacts from this front will be much cooler temps and
gusty NW winds Wednesday all the way through Friday
potentially. Thursday is slated to be the coolest day, with
morning temps starting off in the upper 30s and low 40s. The NBM
continues to gradually adjust highs lower for this stretch as
it corrects from its summertime warm bias. It`s very possible
we struggle to climb above 60F, especially if cloud cover is
expansive enough. This will definitely be a taste of fall, but
we will start to rebound as we head into next week. There is no
major signal for precipitation in the long term forecast past
our mid-week system.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 629 AM CDT Sun Aug 31 2025

Outside of EAU, fog has largely avoided MPX terminals this
morning (thank you Chippewa River...). Pleasant weather is
expected today, with light winds and mainly sunny skies.
Tonight, clouds around 5k feet will begin moving into southwest
MN, with river fog again likely to impact EAU.

KMSP...No additional concerns.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
MON...VFR. Wind SSE 5 kts.
TUE...VFR. -SHRA likely, chc -TSRA/MVFR. Wind SW 5-10kts bcmg
      WNW 10-20 kts in evening.
WED...Chc MVFR/-shra. Wind NW 10-15G25 kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CDT this morning for Brown-
     Chippewa-Kandiyohi-Lac Qui Parle-Pope-Redwood-Renville-
     Stevens-Swift-Yellow Medicine.
WI...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BED
AVIATION...MPG