279
FXUS63 KMPX 031700
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
1200 PM CDT Thu Apr 3 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Light snow showers turn to flurries with no additional
  accumulation today.

- Cooler temperatures highlight an otherwise quiet period of
  weather through this weekend and into next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 258 AM CDT Thu Apr 3 2025

Our spring weather system continues to weaken this morning as
evidence by IR satellite showing warming cloud tops across the state
as our forcing departs, leaving us with mostly cloudy skies until
stronger subsidence arrives in a couple of days. Given our cloud
heights will be at around 1000ft rising to about 3000ft throughout
the day, we will likely still squeeze out some flurries at times but
do not expect any additional snow accumulation. The low pressure
system centered over Lake Superior will being to accelerate its
movement towards Hudson Bay by the end of the day, with weak surface
high pressure moving in behind it marking an end to our active March
pattern that has brought multiple weather systems over the last few
weeks. There will be a 10-15 degree temperature gradient across the
area today based on where the highest snow amounts fell yesterday
with near 50 highs in southern Minnesota compared to mid to upper
30s over western Minnesota. Normal high temperatures in the Twin
Cities for early April are in the low 50s, thus we will end the week
running around 5 degrees below normal to start the month. The upper
level flow looks to amplify with a long wave trough over the western
half of the CONUS as a jet streak manifests over the northern plains
to Great Lakes regions Friday into Saturday. Right now most of the
global guidance would place the majority of our coverage area within
the left entrance region of the jet giving us subsidence and
allowing skies to clear for Saturday, but not before we could
squeeze out a trace amount of precipitation from a weak surface
feature late Friday.

The jet streak will migrate towards the eastern CONUS by Monday and
continue through midweek as the pacific jet spreads and weakens,
allowing for a bit of arctic air to intrude from the northern stream
jet by Monday and Tuesday. Temperatures look to struggle to make it
out of the 30s as a result despite the early April sun through
Tuesday. Thankfully this cooler stretch won`t last long as the
Pacific jet returns to push out the northern stream by midweek and
temperatures will rebound on the heels of 850-700mb WAA. Depending
on the flow of gulf moisture, this could also mean some showers mid
to late week, however at least right now the better chance for that
would stretch from Nebraska to Illinois rather than making it this
far north. After a frenzy of March systems brought multiple mixed
precipitation type systems including heavy snow, widespread rain,
and freezing rain at times, it is nice to get a welcome break with a
quieter pattern for a stretch. This is highlighted within the CPC
outlooks with a warming trend favored alongside drier than normal
conditions into the middle of the month, which is supported by all
the global ensembles at this time scale.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1200 PM CDT Thu Apr 3 2025

Persistent MVFR ceilings today with some dropping into IFR
tonight in western Minnesota (AXN and RWF). These western
terminals could also see some rain or snow as we get near the
end of the period Friday afternoon. Too close to the end of the
TAF for inclusion at this time. Winds will continue from the
west/northwest this afternoon around 10 knots before becoming
light and variable tonight. Light winds continue into Friday
morning.

KMSP...No additional concerns.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SAT...VFR. Chc MVFR cigs early. Wind NW 10-15 kts.
SUN...VFR. Wind NW 10-15G25 kts.
MON...VFR. Wind N 10-15 kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...TDH
AVIATION...NDC