019
FXUS63 KMPX 291927
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
227 PM CDT Wed Apr 29 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Frosts or freezes are expected tonight, Thursday night, and
  Friday night.

- A few showers are possible this afternoon across southern MN
  and across western WI Thursday afternoon. Additional low
  chances arrive this weekend and early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 227 PM CDT Wed Apr 29 2026

CU is maturing across southern MN and eastern SD early this
afternoon. A few showers and thunderstorms have also developed
across SD. So far the CU remains shallow farther east, but
forecast soundings continue to show some meager CAPE developing
during the next couple hours. It may be enough to get a few
showers developing with perhaps a lightning strike, but most
areas will remain dry. Diurnal CU will dissipate after sunset
and a cold night expected with lows in the upper 20s to mid 30s.
Winds will remain a bit elevated across southern MN, which
should keep the frost risk in check there. However, the remainder
of the area will likely experience areas of frost. Temperatures
from west central MN to northwest WI are likely to drop below
freezing for a few hours late tonight. A Freeze Warning has been
issued for those areas with a Frost Advisory to the south. Left
southern MN out for now due to the lower risk. Vegetation has
not yet become susceptible north of the Freeze Warning, so no
headlines there for this round.

A similar scenario will unfold Thursday. A shortwave trough
will swing southeast and modest surface-based instability will
develop across western WI. A few showers may develop during the
afternoon but they should remain brief and inconsequential.
Friday will be dry with just scattered to broken shallow CU
development. Clearing will take place again Thursday and Friday
evenings with temperatures dropping back to near freezing.
Additional frost and freeze headlines are likely for each of
those nights.

Milder temperatures return for the weekend as the trough eases.
Northwest flow will still continue so the warming trend will
not be particularly impressive. Weak shortwaves may provide low
chances for showers. There are signs by the middle of next week
a stronger push of cold air may return with a large upper low
parked over eastern Canada.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1219 PM CDT Wed Apr 29 2026

VFR with scattered to broken mid-level cigs continuing to
move across all TAF sites this afternoon. Breezy NW`ly wind
gusts around 20kts will ease up around sunset and becoming light
overnight. There is a non-zero chance for a few isolated
sprinkles this afternoon but chances were too low to include in
any TAFs. Should sprinkles manage to fall, would likely be
nearest to MKT and RWF.

KMSP...No additional concerns.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
FRI...VFR. Wind NNW 5-10 kts.
SAT...VFR. Wind WNW 5-10 kts.
SUN...VFR. Chc -SHRA late. Wind W 5-10 kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...Freeze Warning from 2 AM to 8 AM CDT Thursday for Chippewa-
     Chisago-Isanti-Kandiyohi-Lac Qui Parle-McLeod-Meeker-
     Renville-Sherburne-Wright-Yellow Medicine.
     Frost Advisory from 2 AM to 8 AM CDT Thursday for Anoka-Brown-
     Carver-Dakota-Goodhue-Hennepin-Le Sueur-Nicollet-Ramsey-
     Redwood-Rice-Scott-Sibley-Washington.
WI...Freeze Warning from 2 AM to 8 AM CDT Thursday for Barron-
     Chippewa-Polk-Rusk-St. Croix.
     Frost Advisory from 2 AM to 8 AM CDT Thursday for Dunn-Eau
     Claire-Pepin-Pierce.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Borghoff
AVIATION...Dunleavy