482
FXUS63 KMPX 240000
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
700 PM CDT Sat Aug 23 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A mostly dry forecast ahead with just a few light rain
  shower/sprinkle chances.

- Much below normal temperatures expected through Monday with
  highs in 60s and lows in the 40s and below normal highs in
  the 70s for the rest of the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 208 PM CDT Sat Aug 23 2025

Rest of Today through Monday... In this post-frontal airmass
cold air advection will continue. This has promoted mixing and
provided for a gusty day today and likely again tomorrow. As
surface heating comes to an end in the evening this mixing will
diminish and so will the winds. The cooler air moving in has
also provided for saturation in parts of the atmosphere which
has provided for cloud cover. This saturation is not deep enough
for any rain showers, but can`t rule out a stray sprinkle. This
will be the general pattern that we will see through Monday.
The only day with a chance for more organized rain will be
Sunday. On Sunday a shortwave associated with the larger low
over the Hudson Bay will pass through. This will provide for
some additional lift. This forcing will be very Great Lakes
focused and the only areas with a chance for this more organized
rain will be western Wisconsin. Even for western Wisconsin the
better chances will remain further northeast with western
Wisconsin PoPs only up to around 25 percent. Temperatures will
continue to be much below normal with highs in the 60s and lows
in the 40s (maybe a few low to mid 50s tonight if cloud cover
holds). Normals this time of year are around 80 for a high and
60 for a low. So high temperatures this period are closer to the
normal lows!

Tuesday through Friday...Tuesday will see the departure of the
Hudson Bay low and a change in our weather pattern. The period
of continued cold air advection will come to an end and allow
temperatures to trend back towards normal with highs in the 70s.
Overall mostly surface high pressure during this period. There
is a period later in the week when there will be some upper
level support for rain chances. Looking at the global
deterministic systems it is Thursday and Friday with a chance
for some rain based on the placement of the jet streak and 500
mb wave. Moving over to the ensemble systems, members have QPF
generally under a tenth and the high outlier at a quarter inch
for the Twin Cities. Looking more broadly across the area, this
same signal is present. So in the end this could be once of the
nicest stretches of summer with temperatures in the 70s and only
low chances of rain. A great time to get outside and enjoy
summer activities before fall arrives.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 700 PM CDT Sat Aug 23 2025

Gusty winds will diminish this evening as first wave of cold
advection has moved through. The next influx of cold air arrives
later tonight, and so gusts should develop quickly Sunday
morning after sunrise. Abundant cu should develop by midday,
with broken clouds most likely in eastern MN and western WI.
There could be a SHRA or two at KEAU or KRNH Sunday afternoon
but its just a slight chance for now. It is certainly something
to watch for subsequent forecasts.

KMSP...No additional concerns at this time.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
MON...VFR. Wind NW 5-15kts.
TUE...VFR. Wind NW 5-10kts.
WED...VFR. Wind SW 5-15 kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...NDC
AVIATION...TDK