474
FXUS63 KMPX 041143
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
543 AM CST Sun Jan 4 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Icy travel this afternoon with a wintry mix of sleet and
  freezing rain mainly along and east of the Mississippi River.
  Some snow still possible closer to central Wisconsin.

- Another round of light freezing rain possible late Monday
  night and Tuesday morning.

- Mild temperatures expected this week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 327 AM CST Sun Jan 4 2026

Clouds have cleared in most areas north of I-94 this morning,
while low clouds linger to the south. The next system to impact
the region later today is taking shape over Wyoming. The fairly
compact but vigorous disturbance will continue east to MN this
afternoon and WI this evening. It won`t have much moisture to
work with until it begins to reach the Upper Midwest. By late
this morning, precipitation will begin breaking out across
central MN. It will become more widespread and steadier as it
builds east into WI. QPF continues to trend down, but
unfortunately even light amounts are likely to cause impacts
because p-type continues to point to predominantly freezing rain
and sleet. RAP forecast soundings continue to show a pronounced
warm layer around 800 mb, with wetbulb temps maxing out around
+2.5C. Any warmer than this would melt the entire snowflake and
make it very difficult to refreeze into sleet, resulting in
freezing rain. Farther east, air should be a bit colder
throughout the column but still climbing above freezing, leaving
sleet as the dominate p-type. Snow amounts in WI have trended
down in favor of more sleet. Other forecast models vary a little
warmer or colder overall, and also each hour. Tiny variations
can result in vastly different p-types, so expect the
possibility of sleet and/or freezing rain at anytime. It`s a
quick moving system and the precip will be in its formative
stages overhead, so it is not likely to last more than 2 to 4
hours. Nevertheless, slick conditions are likely to develop with
any amount or duration. High temps later today will reach the
30s across MN, which should help improve any impacts. Some fog
may develop tonight with moisture trapped under the growing
inversion.

The next system to watch comes late Monday night and early
Tuesday. This one will be more mesoscale in size which lends to
lower confidence overall. There continue to be latitudinal
differences with respect to the most likely corridor of
precipitation. There are surprisingly high QPF bullseyes or
corridors on many of the CAMs. It seems to be tied to bands of
frontogenesis, which also explains the spatial differences. Also
of note is weak isentropic lift, leading to little or no precip
in areas without frontogenesis. The warm nose will be even
warmer with this system, which should melt all hydrometeors.
P-type will be determined by surface temp. Temperatures are
forecast to be within a degree or two of freezing, therefore
either rain or freezing rain is possible. Forecast confidence
for this system remains low, but will need to watch for more
potential light ice accumulation.

Signals continue to point to a pattern change later this week
with a trough developing over the western U.S. Short waves
embedded within the larger trough across the southwestern U.S.
will eventually work east to the Rockies late week. How these
interact with another reinforcing trough to the north will
determine if we can get a larger system to develop by Friday.
There has been a lot of variability and confidence remains quite
low, but the pattern is worth watching. Otherwise, a mild
airmass will dominate the week with highs in the 30s.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 530 AM CST Sun Jan 4 2026

MVFR/IFR cigs are slowly spreading northeastward this morning
along with increasing winds from the southeast. Conditions will
continue to deteriorate through late morning to IFR/LIFR with
precip developing across east central Minnesota. Still expecting
a FZRAPL mix to last for 3-4 hours early this afternoon for KSTC
and KMSP and our Wisconsin sites. Southern Minnesota may see
some clearing behind the precip this afternoon, so did put KRWF
and KMKT back to VFR. Others may see improvement to high end MVFR,
but fog will develop by early Monday morning bringing a chance
for IFR cigs/vis to return.

KMSP...No major changes to the forecast. Cigs have just dropped
to MVFR with the edge of the IFR cloud deck not far behind. Kept
IFR conditions through mid afternoon with FZRAPL expected
between 18z and 21z. Most of the evening should see VFR cigs
with winds becoming light and variable before fog/MVFR
conditions develop early Monday morning.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
MON...IFR/LIFR cigs/vis likely early. Wind VRB05kt.
TUE...VFR/MVFR. Chc -FZRA/-RA. Wind W 5-10 kts.
WED...VFR. Wind SW 5-10 kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...Winter Weather Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 4 PM CST
     this afternoon for Anoka-Benton-Carver-Chisago-Dakota-
     Goodhue-Hennepin-Isanti-Kanabec-Mille Lacs-Morrison-
     Ramsey-Scott-Sherburne-Washington-Wright.
WI...Winter Weather Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 9 PM CST
     this evening for Barron-Chippewa-Dunn-Eau Claire-Pepin-
     Pierce-Polk-Rusk-St. Croix.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Borghoff
AVIATION...Dye