769
FXUS63 KMPX 121043
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
543 AM CDT Wed Mar 12 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Warming temperatures to peak on Friday before dropping into
  the 30s and 40s after the late week system.

- Potent low pressure system to impact the vast majority of the
  central United States in some form Friday through Saturday.
  For the Upper Midwest, this means rain, strong winds,
  thunderstorms, and wintry conditions on the back end.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 254 AM CDT Wed Mar 12 2025

Another quiet night across the region will give way to another
pleasant, but slightly warmer, day today. Winds will remain
relatively calm and variable to east/northeasterly. Scattered
mid to high level clouds will retract northward through the day.
Thursday will be similar, but with warmer temperatures as
ridging builds and low level winds turn southerly. Cloud cover
will increase through the day Thursday and into the overnight
hours, but no precipitation is expected. With a prominent ridge
in place early Friday, well-above normal temperatures will
advect north as a strong low-level jet sits over the south. This
will be the third day this week where we will approach record
high temperatures. Our current forecast for Friday has highs in
the low to mid 70s for most, with 73 at MSP. Should MSP reach
73, that would tie the record high set back in 2012.

As this ridge propagates eastward, the associated trough will
bring a messy spring system in its wake. A anomalously strong
low pressure center will be full steam ahead towards southern
Minnesota. For a comparison to recent history, this system looks
to be similar in strength (based on surface pressure for this
time of year) to a surface cyclone that deepened rapidly and
produced Minnesota`s earliest tornadoes on record (for a
calendar year) on March 6-7, 2017. The biggest difference
between the upcoming system and the ones from 2017 is the
location of the center of the low. In 2017, the system was a
few hundred miles north of where we anticipate this weekend`s
low to track. This means we will be a bit farther from the
strongest portion of the warm sector and thus a slightly lesser
severe threat. That being said, the Storm Prediction Center did
introduce a Day 3 slight risk (2 of 5) for severe weather across
southeast Minnesota. This includes Albert Lea and Owatonna. A
marginal risk exists for three tiers of counties north of the
slight (Mankato, Twin Cities, Eau Claire), with a general
thunder outlook for the rest of northern Minnesota and
Wisconsin. MUCAPE values of 1000J/kg are present across much of
the southern two-thirds of Minnesota and western third of
Wisconsin around 7PM Friday night per the LREF. On the flip side, CIN
values are around 75 to 100J/kg. Forecast soundings verify this
analysis with long and skinny CAPE profiles and a capped
atmosphere into the early evening. The CIN eventually dissipates
with the cold frontal passage around 8 or 9PM. Given the cap, it
doesn`t look like any significant storms would initiate prior to
7PM. This allows for a narrow timeframe in which MUCAPE remains
after the cap is gone for a few storms to become severe,
especially across southern Minnesota. The way things are
looking now, our threat for surface-based storms is relatively
low, but an elevated hail threat could be something to watch
for. A few weak tornadoes cannot fully be ruled out, but strong
winds would be the bigger concern. As we get closer in time,
high-res models will become available and can cover this
system. This will allow for a better idea of what to expect on
what could be Minnesota`s first severe event of 2025.

By mid-Saturday morning, the thunderstorm threat will be gone,
but snow will enter the picture in western Minnesota with
lingering PoPs elsewhere in the form of rain. As colder air
filters in later in the day, a transition to snow is likely. Limited,
if any, accumulation is expected for most of the MPX CWA.
Western Minnesota is the exception to this, with a few inches
possible in the wrap around precip. The accumulation won`t be of
too much concern, but falling snow with winds gusting to 40kts
(or more) would be. The timeframe of greatest concern with
regard to strong winds and actively falling snow is 7AM to 2PM
Saturday. The track of the low will heavily influence how far
east the snow potential goes and will warrant further observing
in the coming days.

Looking at the 36 hour QPF from midday Friday through sunday
morning, western Minnesota has around an inch with a gradual
transition down to half an inch or less east of the MN/WI
border. Given the convective potential, locations that see
storms will have locally higher amounts. These QPF amounts have
remained fairly steady over the past few days, but we anticipate
a narrowing of the gradient in the coming days.

Colder temperatures on Sunday (30s) will quickly return to the
40s and 50s by early next week as another ridge moves in.
Another trough will follow in that ridge`s wake by Wednesday.
With this system, we look to remain fully in the cold sector and
may miss out on precip entirely. As this is a week out, not much
more can be said other than another system is forecast for the
central CONUS during the middle of next week.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 540 AM CDT Wed Mar 12 2025

VFR conditions expected today with high clouds and light
easterly winds becoming west through the afternoon at 10 kts or
less. Winds go variable overnight before becoming southeast by
Thursday morning.

KMSP...No additional concerns.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
THU...VFR. Wind SE 10-20 kts.
FRI...MVFR/IFR RA/TSRA likely late. Wind SE 15-20G30-35 kts.
SAT...MVFR/IFR RA/-SN possible. Wind NW 15-20G25-35 kts

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...PV
AVIATION...Dye