655
FXUS63 KMPX 101739
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
1239 PM CDT Thu Sep 10 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Quiet weather today and much of tomorrow, before a cold front
  triggers a chance for strong to severe thunderstorms Friday
  evening.

- Extended forecast features additional rain chances Sunday and
  Monday, along with slightly below average temperatures into
  next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 132 AM CDT Thu Sep 10 2026

TODAY...It`ll be a nice one! Mostly sunny skies combine with
light winds under surface high pressure today. Winds start to
turn out of the south, however, bringing temperatures and
dewpoints up slightly from yesterday.

FRIDAY...The setup remains largely the same for Friday evening
as a bonafide cold front moves southeast from northern MN,
likely triggering scattered storms along its path. If there`s
any change to the forecast, it is increasing confidence for
northern and central MN, and decreasing confidence for southern
MN. As the SPC highlights in this morning`s SWODY2 discussion,
weaker large scale ascent may become problematic for overcoming
warmer 850-700 mb temperatures to the south. We are seeing this
manifest with some of the hi-res CAMs that are starting to get
into range, with storms only getting as far south as a line
from Morris to St Cloud. For those areas to the north, veering
low level winds and increasing surface moisture will aid in the
development of initial supercells. This is where there is a
greater risk for large hail, damaging winds, and even a low
tornado potential. A strengthening LLJ would favor storms
becoming more clustered through the evening, which would
mitigate the severe risk the further south and east the front
gets. Timing remains pretty consistent, with the initial storms
developing in the late afternoon or early evening, and
dissipating by midnight or so.

SATURDAY AND BEYOND...Temperatures behind the front will be much
more seasonable with highs in the low to mid 70s and dewpoints
in the 50s. The Upper MS Valley will become sandwiched between
the exiting cold front and a developing low pressure system over
the PNW Saturday into Sunday. As the approaching low deepens
off the lee of the Rockies, a pool of surface moisture is
expected to advect north across the region, rising PWAT
anomalies to 150-200% of normal for mid September. In fact, any
values approaching 1.8" is near the 99th percentile of sounding
climatology for MPX this time of year. All of this moisture is
pointless though, unless there is enough forcing to do something
with it. There continues to be discrepancies between the
evolution of the upper low, with it potentially lagging out west
longer. At the same time though, the LLJ increasing in strength
Sunday night would trigger and fuel widespread showers and
storms. As the upper low moves east, rain likely continues into
the first part of Monday.

The jet stream becomes more zonal, and eventually shifts out of
the northwest, for the rest of the week. This will bring in a
cooler, drier air mass at least for few days, but potentially
even longer. One interesting thing to note is that we could see
our first high in the 60s since June 17th at MSP. (I know, kind
of odd for it to be June... it was a day that was very cloudy
and rainy.) We do have PoPs return Wednesday evening, indicating
the chance for some shortwaves to move southeast along the
flow.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1231 PM CDT Thu Sep 10 2026

VFR conditions persist for all terminals through the period.
Skies currently SKC to FEW, becoming FEW to SCT at 5-10 kft feet
with afternoon CU development. Winds generally light and VRB
across the area, western MN terminals becoming SE/S at 7-12
knots this afternoon. The main thing for tomorrow, winds will
become gusty during the mid to late morning timeframe with gusts
up to 30 knots out of the S/SSW.

KMSP...VFR conditions through the period. Winds tomorrow will be
on the gusty side of things, out of the S/SSW at 15-20 knots
sustained with gusts to 30 knots.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SAT...VFR. Winds NW 8-12kts.
SUN...Chance -TSRA/MVFR. Wind NE 8-12kts.
MON...RA/MVFR expected, chance TSRA/IFR. Wind SE 15G25kts
becoming SW.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BED
AVIATION...LPR