628
FXUS63 KMPX 250517
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
1217 AM CDT Sat Jul 25 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Another prolonged heat wave begins this weekend. An Extreme
  Heat Warning is in effect Saturday through Sunday for
  southwest MN, with an areawide Watch continuing into Monday.

- The urban heat island of the metro supports higher confidence
  for an Extreme Heat Warning lasting Saturday through Monday
  morning.

- Occasional low chances for showers and storms exist through
  most of next week. The best chance is Sunday night.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 258 PM CDT Fri Jul 24 2026

The forecast is starting to get a little bit busier as we bring
in multi-day heat headlines and several low-end chances for
thunderstorms, some potentially severe. Let`s cover the heat
first.

Extreme Heat Saturday through Monday...A pronounced ridge will
remain centered over the west-central US this weekend, leaving
the Upper MS Valley on the northeastern periphery. Confidence
remains lower than it was for our previous heatwave, given the
chance for elevated smoke which could filter sunshine and
several weak disturbances that could influence storm chances.
That said, guidance continues to suggest dangerously hot and
humid conditions over several days, starting midday Saturday.

A plume of low level moisture advection will increase dewpoint
temperatures into the low-mid 70s, resulting in heat indices
near 100-105F along a corridor centered over the MN river valley
in southwestern MN. WBGT near 87-89F also suggest that heat-
related illnesses will become much more likely when spending
extended periods of time outdoors, especially if exercising. An
Extreme Heat Warning has been issued from Saturday afternoon
through Sunday morning for this area of greatest heat risk. The
Twin Cities metro also has an Extreme Heat Warning starting the
same time on Saturday and continuing all the way through Monday
morning. The hot and humid conditions spread eastward Sunday and
Monday, though with the uncertainties, we have kept everywhere
outside of the metro with an Extreme Heat Watch for now. The
metro will stay warm overnight (mid to upper 70s) such that
confidence remains high for prolonged impacts from the heat. The
heat will continue into next week, but dewpoints and air
temperatures will be about 5-8 degrees cooler than this weekend.

Thunderstorm Chances...Several weak disturbances are expected to
initiate a few rounds of thunderstorms, starting this evening
across eastern ND and northern MN. Most CAMs have focused in on
a similar solution showing scattered storms developing late
afternoon and progressing eastern through the evening. The
majority of the convection likely will fall apart by the time it
reaches central MN given the lack of instability across the
area and warming mid- levels. That said, there is still a
marginal SWO for portions of central MN with the low end
scenario of a storm or two continuing further south than
expected late this evening.

Storms will likely continue moving east across northern MN and
northern WI through the morning, and additional isolated storm
development will be possible along a boundary draped through
western WI and east-central MN.

A fairly broad Day 2 Marginal SWO was introduced across much of
WI and eastern MN, highlighting the chance for isolated
redevelopment tomorrow afternoon. Eastern WI would be the
favored region for any storm initiation due to weaker capping
east of the thermal ridge. Much of MN could be well-capped with
700 mb temperatures expected to be up to +12-15C.

Sunday could end up being a very similar situation with overall
storm coverage remaining dependent on the extent of our thermal
profile. There will be a slightly more favorable environment for
any storms to do form to become severe, as highlighted by the
Day 3 Slight risk.

Additional storm chances will be possible into next week, though
it will continue to rely on this smaller scale disturbances
within the upper level ridge.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1217 AM CDT Sat Jul 25 2026

VFR/MVFR stratus is lifting north into central MN and western
WI. This stratus will linger into mid morning before lifting and
scattering. Southwest winds will become light and variable in
the afternoon.

KMSP...Cigs will lower to MVFR overnight, then improvement is
expected around 16Z.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SUN...VFR. Chc for -TSRA PM. Wind SSW 10 kts.
MON...VFR. W 5-10 kts becoming NW at 10-15G25 kts.
TUE...VFR. Wind NW 5-10 kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...Heat Advisory from noon today to 11 PM CDT this evening for
     Benton-Chisago-Douglas-Goodhue-Isanti-Kanabec-Mille Lacs-
     Morrison-Sherburne-Stearns-Todd.
     Extreme Heat Watch from Sunday afternoon through Sunday
     evening for Benton-Blue Earth-Brown-Chippewa-Chisago-
     Douglas-Faribault-Freeborn-Goodhue-Isanti-Kanabec-
     Kandiyohi-Lac Qui Parle-Le Sueur-Martin-McLeod-Meeker-
     Mille Lacs-Morrison-Nicollet-Pope-Redwood-Renville-Rice-
     Sherburne-Sibley-Stearns-Steele-Stevens-Swift-Todd-Waseca-
     Watonwan-Wright-Yellow Medicine.
     Extreme Heat Warning from noon today to noon CDT Sunday for
     Blue Earth-Brown-Chippewa-Faribault-Freeborn-Kandiyohi-
     Lac Qui Parle-Le Sueur-Martin-McLeod-Meeker-Nicollet-Pope-
     Redwood-Renville-Rice-Sibley-Steele-Stevens-Swift-Waseca-
     Watonwan-Wright-Yellow Medicine.
     Extreme Heat Warning from noon today to 6 AM CDT Monday for
     Anoka-Carver-Dakota-Hennepin-Ramsey-Scott-Washington.
WI...Heat Advisory from noon today to 11 PM CDT this evening for
     Pierce-Polk-St. Croix.
     Extreme Heat Watch from Sunday afternoon through Sunday
     evening for Barron-Chippewa-Dunn-Eau Claire-Pepin-Pierce-
     Polk-Rusk-St. Croix.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BED
AVIATION...Borghoff