052
FXUS63 KMPX 091055
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
555 AM CDT Tue Jun 9 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Highs in the low 90s are likely today and Wednesday.

- Thunderstorms possible through Thursday with the strongest
  storms expected today and Wednesday. Large hail, damaging
  winds, and tornadoes are possible.

- Much cooler with a drop in thunderstorm chances Friday into
  the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 326 AM CDT Tue Jun 9 2026

Tonight has been quiet as earlier showers and storms have
dissipated. Nighttime microphysics satellite imagery and
observations show fog has formed in southeastern MN and west-central
WI early this morning. The edge of the fog has been migrating
northwest and should continue into eastern MN and the remainder of
west-central WI by sunrise. The fog isn`t too thick yet, but
expecting visibilities in localized areas to drop to near 1/2 mile
by sunrise, especially over our WI counties where much of today`s
rain fell. Quiet, dry weather will continue through this afternoon
as our hot temperatures arrive. Highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s
are forecast this afternoon. This combined with the mid to upper 60s
dewpoints, heat indices will rise into the mid to upper 90s for much
of south-central to southwestern MN. We currently don`t have any
heat headlines issued but that doesn`t mean to be careful if working
or doing activities outside. Be sure to drink plenty of water, take
frequent breaks, and find shade. Winds will also be breezy across
western MN today as southeasterly LLJ strengthens ahead of an
approaching upper-level trough. Gusts will reach 30 MPH this
afternoon for our far western MN counties.

A line of scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop late
Tuesday afternoon/evening across the central Dakotas. These storms
should quickly become severe while racing east, likely growing
upscale into multiple lines/bowing segments as they near the
eastern Dakotas/western MN around midnight Wednesday. The Storm
Prediction Center has extended the Enhanced risk into our far
western MN counties for Tuesday night. CAMs suggest that the
bowing lines of storms could remain strong into western MN,
owing to the forecast 3000-4000 J/kg of CAPE. With these bowing
segments, strong, damaging winds would be the main severe
hazard, but one or two tornadoes along the leading edge of the
storms also cannot be ruled out. Bulk shear values will drop to
30 knots and below the farther east one goes into MN and the
loss of daytime heating will allow for the boundary layer to
decouple and storms to eventually become elevated. Thus, we`re
expecting a weakening trend in the convection as the lines of
storms move across MN Tuesday night. CAMs show the storms
reaching eastern MN/western WI near sunrise Wednesday morning.
Small hail and gusty winds may still occur within any of the
stronger cells. Much of the area should see a good soaking rain
also as forecast models show additional elevated convection
developing overnight within the low-level WAA.

A lot of uncertainty surrounds Wednesday`s forecast. The
aforementioned lines of showers and storms are forecast to exit our
CWA to the east near or just after sunrise. A lot of convective
debris (cloud cover) could be left in its wake across our area.
Additionally, CAMs are showing some hints of elevated showers and
thunderstorms redeveloping across MN during mid-morning within the
continued WAA. If this were to occur, the precipitation would move
east into WI by early afternoon. How hot we get by Wednesday
afternoon will be dependent on how much heating we get through the
breaks in the clouds. The air will still be very moist, so if
temperatures rise into the mid 80s to lower 90s (as forecast), heat
indices could climb to near 100 in the afternoon. Meanwhile, the
upper-level trough will continue east into the Central/Northern
Plains while a strong jetstreak begins to enter the base. Strong
upper-level diffluence downstream over the very moist and (likely)
unstable airmass will set the stage for another round of potential
severe weather Wednesday afternoon and evening. A cold front will
advance east across MN with scattered thunderstorms developing ahead
of it somewhere near the I-35 corridor in east-central and southern
MN early Wednesday afternoon. If the earlier precipitation and cloud
cover doesn`t hinder instability, the RAP forecasts 3000-4000 J/kg
MLCAPE amid 45-55 knots of bulk shear. This would easily initially
support supercells with all severe hazards possible. Hail could be
in excess of 2" owing to steep mid-level lapse rates and large CAPE.
There is also an increased threat for tornadoes, especially where
earlier precipitation hasn`t contaminated the surface environment.
This seems most probable across southeastern MN and western WI where
greatest low-level helicity and instability are forecast. One or two
strong tornadoes (EF2+) are not out of the question so this
potential will continue to be closely monitored. Please follow along
with the forecast and be prepared Wednesday afternoon in case severe
weather occurs. The linear-ish shear profile and lift along the cold
front likely mean supercells will grow upscale into bowing line
segments as they travel east into WI. CAMs show these bowing lines
being strong and persisting across WI until they exit our CWA during
Wednesday evening. Damaging wind gusts and tornadoes would then
prevail as the primary severe threats. The Storm Prediction Center
currently has the eastern half of our CWA in an Enhanced risk for
Wednesday. But, as stated earlier, the evolution of the morning
showers and thunderstorms will be crucial to how Wednesday
afternoon/evening unfolds. We will continue to monitor the forecast
for any potential changes.

The upper-level trough will swing through MN/WI Thursday into
Friday, bringing milder temperatures to end the week. Highs Thursday
through Saturday are forecast to be largely in the 70s. Post-frontal
showers and perhaps a thunderstorm are possible across the southern
half of MN and WI during Thursday but drier incoming air afterwards
will limit any significant chances for precipitation into next week.
Thus, if you`re fan of milder, summer weather, Thursday onwards
looks great.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 549 AM CDT Tue Jun 9 2026

Most sites start off with low stratus and fog in MVFR to IFR
range. All sites should return to VFR by mid to late morning and
remain VFR throughout the remainder of the TAF. A mix of mid to
high level clouds will be present this afternoon. Attention
turns to tonight`s TS potential. I have included PROB30s for
TSRA as forecast confidence has increased enough that an MCS
will likely traverse from W MN to W WI tonight. Exact details
remain uncertain. Winds will generally be under 10kts with
gusts into the low 20s.

KMSP... initial low stratus and BR will dissipate quickly this
morning. TSRA timing w/PROB30 for tonight may change depending
on what develops upstream this evening.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
WED...Early AM IFR/-TSRA likely. Chance Afternoon IFR/+TSRA
Wind S 15-20G30 kts.
THU...VFR. Chance PM -TSRA. Wind W 10-15G25 kts.
FRI...VFR. Wind W 15G30kt.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CTG
AVIATION...BPH