602
FXUS63 KMPX 092351
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
651 PM CDT Tue Sep 9 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Widespread dense fog tonight and early Wednesday.

- Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms continue today
  across eastern MN & western WI.

- Temperatures continue to warm through the week. Weekend highs
  climb back into the mid to upper 80s across southern MN.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 651 PM CDT Tue Sep 9 2025

MCV continues east and skies are clearing across western MN
early this evening. Very low dew point depressions and light or
calm winds with clearing skies will lead to widespread fog
formation later this evening across central MN, spreading
southeast overnight. Planning to issue a Dense Fog Advisory
shortly for much of the CWA. There are some questions how far
south the fog will develop, so will hold off for now on a few
counties across southern MN.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 251 PM CDT Tue Sep 9 2025

As of 230PM, regional radar shows a decaying MCV over eastern MN
with scattered storms developing over W/NW WI. With only a few
hundred J/kg of MUCAPE and weak shear, we do not expect any
storms to reach severe thresholds. In fact, lightning has been
somewhat limited with the initial storms that developed already.
Similar to what we saw this morning with areas seeing up to an
inch of rain, isolated rainfall amounts could be higher in
locations where rain persists for several hours. As the system
gradually spins east, the latest CAMs pinpoint the highest QPF
near Goodhue County in MN & along and south of I-94 in WI.
Showers and storms will diminish or move east by midnight.
Isolated showers could redevelop in the wake of this system
tomorrow morning across western WI, but impacts should be low to
none.

Our gradual warm up continues through the end of the week as
ridging builds over the Upper Midwest. Widespread highs in the
80s (and lows in the 60s) look likely Friday, Saturday, & Sunday.
Large scale subsidence under the ridge will keep things
generally dry outside of any weak waves that can tap into the
increase in moisture. Best chance on Friday is favored to stay
across northern MN, otherwise there is no large signal for
noteworthy precipitation. By the start of next week we could see
the ridge axis shift east over the Great Lakes, leading to a
slight downward trend in temps Monday and Tuesday, though
confidence is low at this time still.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 651 PM CDT Tue Sep 9 2025

Showers are diminishing and skies are clearing across parts of
MN. However, ample low level moisture and light winds will lead
to widespread dense fog forming later this evening across
central MN and spreading southeast to southern MN and western
WI overnight. Fog and cigs will lift after 14Z Wednesday with
IFR/MVFR bases remaining through midday. Winds will be light
through the period.

KMSP...Some improvement is possible through 02Z given
observations to the west, but conditions are expected to
deteriorate again later this evening, likely becoming LIFR
overnight.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
THU...VFR. Wind SE 5-10 kts.
FRI...VFR. Wind SE 10-15 kts.
SAT...VFR. Wind SE 5-10 kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Borghoff
DISCUSSION...BED
AVIATION...Borghoff