800
FXUS63 KMPX 230514
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
1114 PM CST Sat Feb 22 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Warm up continues with highs in the 40s and low 50s tomorrow
  through Tuesday.

- A few chances for light rain/snow next week. Best chance
  currently is Tuesday night.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 318 PM CST Sat Feb 22 2025

Many locations have warmed above freezing for the first time
since February 3rd. This marks the longest running streak of
below freezing temperatures since the winter of 2019 when we saw
31 days in a row (at MSP Airport). Interestingly though, the
2019 stretch occurred after the infamous Polar Vortex from that
January... the 31 days lasted from February into March. This
recent stretch of cold weather is only the 92nd longest stretch
of AOB 32 degrees (since the period of record began in 1872).
Despite some cloud cover across the region, you can see a
retreating line of snow cover on satellite throughout the day,
especially in SW MN along the Buffalo Ridge. Snow depth was
already limited in that region, but a mix of the late February
sun angle and SW flow over the Ridge has allowed temperatures to
soar into the upper 40s and eat away at any snow left on the
ground.

Thermal ridging will continue to build across the western half
of the CONUS as we head into next week, allowing much of the
Northern Plains to climb 10-20 degrees above normal for this
time of year. A series of shortwaves will bring several chances
for light rain/snow this week, with the best setup looking to be
Tuesday night into Wednesday. QPF has remained around a tenth
or less, and rain is favored. More of a wintry mix could occur
overnight as temperatures drop off to the north of I-94. There
could be more of a drastic gradient in temperatures this week
than models suggest, with more cloud and snow cover to the
north and an already snow-free ground across much of SW MN.
Temperatures will start to cool closer to normal by this weekend
following the passage of another decent looking Clipper to the
north.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1058 PM CST Sat Feb 22 2025

For STC, CAMs have been persistent on fog developing between
12-16Z this morning. However, a modestly saturated boundary
layer in forecast soundings and projected mid-level cloud cover
cast uncertainty into how much fog will develop. Have went with
a 3 hour period of MVFR visibilities to show the possibility of
some patchy fog. Elsewhere, VFR is expected the entire period
with mid to high-level clouds. Light south-southwesterly winds
tonight will increase to 5-10 knots Sunday afternoon. Westerly
LLWS of 40-45 knots is expected for most MN terminals late
Sunday evening.

KMSP...Have omitted any westerly wind shear mentions in the TAF
for Sunday night. Forecast values for wind shear generally look
to be too low.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
MON...VFR. Wind W 10-15 kts.
TUE...VFR. Chc MVFR cigs. Wind NW 5-10 kts bcmg SW.
WED...VFR. Chc MVFR/-RA early. Wind NW 10-15 kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...
AVIATION...CTG