128
FXUS63 KMPX 121052
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
552 AM CDT Fri Jun 12 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered showers & thunderstorms this afternoon and evening
  across central MN and western WI, some could be strong with
  hail and gusty winds being the primary threats.

- Below normal temperatures and dry conditions expected this
  weekend.

- Below normal temperatures continue through the middle of next
  week with slight (10-30%) chance of rain Monday night into
  Tuesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 141 AM CDT Fri Jun 12 2026

Overall, little to no changes from previous forecast packages
with scattered showers/storms this afternoon across the forecast
area and fair/quiet weather conditions through the weekend.
Temperatures through the period with remain below the seasonal
average for mid June. Slight chances for rain return to the
forecast Monday night into Tuesday, along with late next week.

     FRIDAY...

The first half of your day will feature mostly clear skies with
ample sunshine. Cool morning temperatures will rebound nicely
through the late morning and early afternoon timeframe in
response to ample sunshine, with high temperatures topping out
in the upper 70s to around 80 degrees. Upper level low over
western Ontario will rotate a mid-level lobe of energy across
the Dakotas and into Minnesota during the afternoon and evening
hours, along with a cold front that will drop south out of
Canada. This combined with sufficient low-level moisture (DP
temps in 50s) will promote scattered showers and thunderstorms
this afternoon and evening across central MN and western WI.
Looking at convective parameters, MUCAPE values generally top
out in the 250-500 J/kg range with 50 knots of shear and steep
lapse rates. Forecast model soundings suggest that when
showers/storms do evolve this afternoon and evening, they will
be relatively high-based and low-topped. The somewhat strong
northwesterly flow aloft and 50 knots of shear favor some
organized convection. The question that remains, how sufficient
will the 250-500 J/kg of CAPE be? That said, an isolated storm
or two embedded within the band of showers/storms could pose a
threat for some hail and strong to severe wind gusts. Something
we will be monitoring throughout the afternoon and evening.

     THIS WEEKEND...

The aforementioned cold front will advance south and east by
Saturday with conditions across the area drying out in it`s
wake. An isolated shower/storm will be possible across our far
southern MN Counties on Saturday. Temperatures will remain
below the seasonal average for mid June with highs topping out
in middle 70s across the area, upper 60s to around 70 degrees
for northwest portions of the CWA. Much of the same can be
expected on Sunday with highs in the low to middle 70s under
mostly sunny skies.

     NEXT WEEK...

Persistent longwave upper level troughing over east half of
Canada and CONUS will keep the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest
upper northwest flow aloft. As a result, temperatures will
remain below average through midweek with high temperatures
through Thursday in the middle 70s. Overnight low temperatures
fall into the low to middle 50s. One of the more sensible
weather changes will be the dew point temperatures, DP temps
will be much more comfortable compared to what we experienced
over the past several days.

Low-end/slight (10-30%) rain chances return to the forecast
Monday night into Tuesday as the next piece of energy embedded
in the overall flow aloft drops south/southeast out of Canada.
Thereafter, deterministic model guidance and their respected
ensemble suites show moisture and rain/storm chances increasing
by late next week. Something we will continue to monitor in the
coming days.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 550 AM CDT Fri Jun 12 2026

The 12z TAF period opens with a few patchy areas of strato-cu
amid a mostly clear sky. Main change to this TAF package was to
clean up timing of the anticipated increase in wind gusts later
this morning. Forecast soundings advertise deep mixing which
will support 25-30kt gusts at the surface and diurnal Cu
between 6-8k feet. A wave will move eastward across the region
this evening and will support scattered showers and a few
thunderstorms. PROB30s were maintained and adjusted based on
latest HREF timing.

KMSP...Peak daytime westerly gusts are forecast to top out near
30kts. No change was made to the going PROB30 from 2-5z, as
latest model trends continue to support scattered showers and a
few thunderstorms during this period.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SAT...VFR. Wind NW at 10-20 kts.
SUN...VFR. Wind NW at 10-20 kts.
MON...VFR. Wind NW at 10-20 kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...LPR
AVIATION...Strus