487
FXUS63 KMPX 051100
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
600 AM CDT Fri Sep 5 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Cool temperatures continue through this weekend. Patchy frost
  possible Saturday night.

- Temperatures rebound into the 70s early next week.

- Scattered showers and storms return to the forecast on Monday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 255 AM CDT Fri Sep 5 2025

THROUGH THIS WEEKEND... Early morning water vapor imagery resembles
classic mid-Fall baroclinicity! Our portion of the Upper Midwest is
now on the "back-side" of the potent early season clipper that
produced widespread rainfall and strong winds on Thursday. The
overall scenario is improved at this hour, with only a few
isolated showers on the KMPX radar. We have observed clear
skies over the past few hours across southern MN, however
satellite displays a stratus deck drifting southeast within the
northwest flow. The presence of stratus should work to keep
morning lows from dipping below the mid 40s. Today`s forecast
features of a mix of morning stratus, an afternoon cumulus
field, and breezy northwest winds (gusts up to 30 mph or so) all
tied to the ongoing cold advection regime. Afternoon highs will
struggle to break out of the upper 50s, which is about 15 to 20
degrees below normal! Majority of the area should stay dry
today, though the setup supports at least isolated chances for
brief rain showers. Modestly steep low-level lapse rates near 7
C/km along with 50-75 J/kg of CAPE in the 0-3 km layer will
support the shower chances. We`ve collaborated with neighboring
offices to include broad 15-20 PoPs across the forecast area
through this afternoon.

Cool air will continue to be the theme through the weekend, as highs
remain below normal in the low to mid 60s both Saturday and Sunday.
The coldest period of the weekend will be early Sunday morning,
when outlying areas from the Twin Cities Metro fall as far as
the upper 30s! With light winds and the anticipated mostly clear
skies, this setup may warrant the need for a frost headline.
Otherwise, it looks like a relatively quiet couple of days with
just an isolated shower or two possible on Saturday.

NEXT WORK WEEK...By Monday morning, high pressure is forecast to be
centered over the Ohio Valley. Farther west, a mid-level shortwave
is forecast to move over the central Plains. Warm advection will
increase from the eastern Great Plains into the Upper Midwest in
response to expected evolution of these features and local high
temperatures will climb back into the 70s as a result. We`ll
also look to see the return of warm advective precipitation
chances Monday afternoon into early Tuesday. Still some time to
look into the finer details, however the NBM`s 40-50% PoPs for
scattered showers/storms Monday afternoon and evening fits the
conceptual model well at this distance. A trailing cold front
is progged to move across the region Tuesday and some of the
guidance advertises this as a frontal passage. However, suspect
this may be underdone as NBM displays a lingering pool of low to
mid 60s Td`s (resulting in sufficient CAPE) across southern MN
through Tuesday evening. Would not be surprised to see PoPs
increase Tuesday in later forecasts...but for now, the 15-20
PoPs for isolated showers/storms will suffice. Solutions diverge
a bit through the end of next week, however the overall trend
(as reflected in the CPC 6-10/8-14 day outlooks) is above normal
temperatures and near to above normal precipitation in the
extended forecast.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 550 AM CDT Fri Sep 5 2025

Persistence of MVFR cigs is a low confidence forecast early in
the 12z TAF period given trends over the past few hours. While
stratus blankets all seven terminals, it`s generally western MN
and western WI where MVFR cigs are more prevalent. Conversely,
observations reveal a "VFR hole" across central MN. Putting the
pieces together and weighing the latest forecast data, opted to
take the TAFs in a more optimistic direction that features
region-wide improvements to VFR by ~15z. Northwesterly winds
will gust between 25-30 kts later this morning through the
afternoon. We do anticipate the development of isolated showers
within the northwesterly flow this afternoon. May eventually
need a VCSH mention at a few of the terminals, however
confidence is low in greater impacts. Any shower activity
should be brief and the potential for thunder is very low.
Winds are forecast to subside around 00z.

KMSP...Brief MVFR cig possible in the first few hours of the
12z period, however recent trends support prevailing VFR.
Northwest winds gust upwards of 30 kts later this morning
through this afternoon.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SAT...VFR. Wind NW 10-15 kts.
SUN...VFR. Wind NW 5-10 kts.
MON...VFR. Wind S 10-10 kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Strus
AVIATION...Strus