479
FXUS63 KMPX 030904
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
404 AM CDT Sun Aug 3 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...
- Poor air quality due to wildfire smoke continues through remainder
of the weekend.

- Scattered rain showers chances today across western Minnesota.
  Rain chances continue through Monday afternoon.

- Heat & humidity & thunderstorm chances will return by mid-week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 403 AM CDT Sun Aug 3 2025

Today through Monday night... A rather quiet night so far across the
Upper Midwest. Regional radar mosaic reveals the only activity is
across the eastern Dakotas, where an remnant MCV has caused
localized flooding concerns. This MCV has moved ever so slowly
toward the MN border with scattered light rain showers finally
falling in extreme western Lac Qui Parle & Yellow Medicine counties.
Elsewhere, mostly clear skies & light winds has led to very
localized patchy fog - primarily near bodies of water - similarly to
last night. Any fog will mix out quickly by daybreak.

Today`s weather will be similar to the previous few days with high
temperatures in the upper 70s/low 80s & low RH values due to sub-60
Td values. A broad high pressure continues to dominate the pattern.
This will lead to another day of poor air quality across the entire
region. There is some good news though the high pressure will shift
further east over the next day and a half. This will allow the low
level flow to turn ever so slightly further south and eventually
southwesterly. This should gradually usher in cleaner air & lead to
improved air quality. For today, the Air Quality Alerts remain in
effect for both MN/WI. Water vapor imagery highlights the MCV swirl
just W of the SD/MN border & the mid-upper level trough that is
providing just enough forcing to support scattered shower chances
across western Minnesota today & Monday. The better surge of low
level moisture arrives late today into Monday across W MN. This will
support an uptick in MUCAPE & should introduce a few rumbles of
thunder in addition to our showers tonight into Monday. There is at
least some threat for a few stronger storms across far western MN on
Monday/Monday night fueled by increasing instability. SPC has
highlighted general thunder chances for Day 1 - 3 with no severe
weather expected at this time.

Tuesday through next Saturday... Our break from heat & humidity will
end by Tuesday. The mid & upper level pattern will evolve by mid-
week reflected in the 00Z guidance suite. These features are the 1)
the ridge over W Canada & 2) the ridge over Baja California. Our
attention will be on the second feature. The southern ridge will
build into the Four Corners region and into the Plains by late week.
h500 charts flirt with a 600dm ridge centered over New Mexico
Wednesday. This will allow westerly flow aloft to usher in warmer
temperatures while there is better moisture advection in the low
levels. Temperatures will warm into the mid to upper 80s for highs
with Td values into the mid to upper 60s & lower 70s by the end of
the work week. The uptick in warmer, more humid weather typically
means the threat of diurnal convection & this is what is responsible
for the NBM`s 20-30 PoPs Tuesday - Saturday afternoon. Our attention
will turn to the PAC NW for the end of the forecast period as a
stronger trough is forecast to move into the region. We will need to
keep our eyes on the progression of this feature as it`s likely to
provide our next chance for an organized system next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1224 AM CDT Sun Aug 3 2025

Smoke persists through Sunday afternoon with visibilities
generally aoa 5sm. There will be a gradual improvement over the
next 24 hours but it`s unknown if it`ll be significant enough
improvement to remove smoke in the TAFs. Winds will be 10 knots
with gusts up to 20 Sunday afternoon. KEAU may see BR
development given light/calm winds & mostly clear skies
overnight tonight, I`ve added a tempo with MVFR vsby. The
approaching rain will slowly progress eastward on Sunday. I`ve
nudged timing back an hour or so with respect to the PROB30
groups for KAXN/KRWF. Rain showers will pop up across W MN this
afternoon with isolated to scattered coverage at best. Models
haven`t advertised much instability and I`ve opted to keep
thunder out of the TAFS. Eastern sites remain dry throughout the
period.

KMSP...No additional concerns.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
MON...VFR. Slight chc MVFR/-TSRA. Wind SE 5-15 kts.
TUE...VFR. Wind SE 5-15 kts.
WED...VFR. Slight chc MVFR/-TSRA. Wind S 10-20 kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BPH
AVIATION...BPH