491
FXUS63 KMPX 101946
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
246 PM CDT Thu Sep 10 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Quiet weather continues through tomorrow evening, late
  tomorrow a cold front will trigger a chance for strong to
  severe thunderstorms in the evening/night.

- Extended forecast features additional rain chances Sunday and
  Monday, along with slightly below average temperatures this
  weekend into next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 245 PM CDT Thu Sep 10 2026

Our beautiful weather will continue the rest of today and most
of tomorrow as high pressure dominates. Tomorrow afternoon a
cold front will move into northwest Minnesota and from the
evening to the morning will moves across Minnesota and western
Wisconsin. This will be driving force behind the thunderstorms
chances. So with ample forcing attention then turns to the
mesoscale environment, to determine where CI will occur and
where convection can be maintained. The parameter that looks
good across the broader region is shear. Hodographs support
supercells with forecast soundings showing almost textbook
curved hodographs. The HRRR for example has very high amounts
of SRH in 0-1km of 300 sometimes 400 m2/s2. The limiting factor
will be instability especially in the lower levels. There is
little low level instability for us, with the main area of low
level instability staying across northern Minnesota. For this
reason many of the CAMs that go this far out have not shown much
convection for us and they keep the main area to our north
across areas covered by WFO FGF and DLH. If we can get storms to
initiate then the environment will be favorable for supercells
with all modes of severe weather possible. The most likely area
will be across central Minnesota where SPC has higher risks as
well for all modes. Although with high LCLs, the main risk will
be for hail and wind. Rain wise this appears to be a very
convectively driven rain signal. So either a lot of rain with a
thunderstorm or nothing. So most will see no rain.

This will be a notable cold front with a much colder air mass
over us this weekend behind frontal passage. Highs on Saturday
look to be in the lower 70s and Sunday in the 60s. Overall our
first taste of more fall like weather after the continuation of
summer temperatures for the start of September. Sunday into
Monday though I have some good news as a large, more fall like
system will move into the Upper Midwest. By more fall like I
mean supportive of widespread stratiform rain rather than
thunderstorms. As drought has continued to expand across
Minnesota and western Wisconsin this could provide some much
needed relief with a nice soaking rain. Precipitable water
values still look to be 150-200% of normal and this moisture
combined with the forcing of a pretty stacked shortwave aloft
conceptually makes this look like the kind of system that gives
us a good rain. Looking towards both deterministic and ensemble
guidance there is strong agreement in the large scale, more
synoptic, factors. Basically pretty much unanimous agreement of
this occurring across membership, with 98 percent of global
ensemble membership showing widespread rain chances. Where
there are differences are where the heaviest QPF sets up. So
while PoPs are and should remain high QPF values are more
variable. As we get closer we should be able to hone in better
on where the heavier QPF will fall. Going back to ensemble
membership it is when you go up to rainfall of a quarter inch or
more is where the spread starts to show. This rain will come
with WAA on Monday bringing highs up slightly into the mid 60s
to mid 70s. Behind the system on Tuesday though cooler air
returns with highs falling back into the mid to upper 60s. Mid
week looks to trend dry behind the early week rain with a very
dispersive signal in the models late week. Each deterministic
global model alone, ensembles aside, has a very different
evolution of the pattern late next week. What is more certain is
that the cooler temperatures look likely to continue.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1231 PM CDT Thu Sep 10 2026

VFR conditions persist for all terminals through the period.
Skies currently SKC to FEW, becoming FEW to SCT at 5-10 kft feet
with afternoon CU development. Winds generally light and VRB
across the area, western MN terminals becoming SE/S at 7-12
knots this afternoon. The main thing for tomorrow, winds will
become gusty during the mid to late morning timeframe with gusts
up to 30 knots out of the S/SSW.

KMSP...VFR conditions through the period. Winds tomorrow will be
on the gusty side of things, out of the S/SSW at 15-20 knots
sustained with gusts to 30 knots.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SAT...VFR. Winds NW 8-12kts.
SUN...Chance -TSRA/MVFR. Wind NE 8-12kts.
MON...RA/MVFR expected, chance TSRA/IFR. Wind SE 15G25kts
becoming SW.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...NDC
AVIATION...LPR