850
FXUS63 KMPX 152254
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
554 PM CDT Wed Jul 15 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dense wildfire smoke is expanding south and west this
  afternoon, reducing visibilities and impacting air quality
  levels.

- Dangerous heat wave continues this week. This is a long
  duration and cumulative threat due to daily highs in the 90s,
  heat indices approaching 100 degrees, and little relief
  overnight.

- No major signal for precipitation through early next week,
  mainly isolated afternoon/evening chances.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 153 PM CDT Wed Jul 15 2026

Regional visible satellite imagery shows a dense pool of smoke
slowly expanding south and west this afternoon. Surface
visibilities in areas of the dense smoke are generally around 1
to 3 miles. The Minnesota Pollution Control Agency and various
public reports have noted that the smoke has been a rapid onset
"wall of smoke" situation. There is some uncertainty with how
far south the smoke will spread, but we are already seeing the
wall flirt along a line extending from Alexandria through St
Cloud and the north Twin Cities metro, all the way towards Eau
Claire, WI. The hazardous air quality levels are expected to
remain north, closer to the fires, though areas of unhealthy to
very unhealthy air quality is expected tonight into tomorrow. An
Air Quality Alert remains in effect through noon on Thursday in
WI and through 11 AM on Friday in MN.

The smoke is impacting temperatures already today, with the
dense surface smoke acting to filter out the sun. The Extreme
Heat Warning was downgraded to a Heat Advisory for areas already
seeing the impact of the dense smoke. In addition to that
downgrade, we have opted to transition the Extreme Heat Warning
to a Heat Advisory for everywhere outside of the metro this
evening. Heat indices are trending lower for Thursday afternoon,
with most places maxing out around 95F. The urban heat island
within the metro will likely keep the low near the mid 70s
tonight and heat indices are still expected to peak around
95-100F during the afternoon as well. Everywhere will likely
warm up again Friday as the low level response to a upper level
shortwave shifts winds out of the south again. The metro`s
Extreme Heat Warning was extended though Friday evening as
confidence has increased for continued warmth. A broader Heat
Advisory may need to be extended into Friday as well, but
confidence is not as high outside of the metro.

This ridge will really start to break down through the weekend
and into next week. A few passing shortwaves should provide
occasional chances for rain, though there continues to be no
major signal for a widespread rainfall. Our best chance areawide
looks to be on Monday as a cold front pushes through the region
and drops temperatures back down into the low 80s for highs and
50s and 60s for lows.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 546 PM CDT Wed Jul 15 2026

Low visibility from wildfire smoke will be the main impact to
aviation, with the lowest visibility expected across easterner
Minnesota & western Wisconsin tonight through early tomorrow
morning. LIFR visibility below 1SM is possible at times at
STC/RNH/EAU, especially during the coolest part of the day
between 3-8 AM. Elsewhere smoke is generally expected to be MVFR
this evening with visibility reducing to 1-2SM after midnight.
Visibility improves by mid to late morning but we still could
see some light smoke linger through the rest of the day. Winds
will be light through the period, generally shifting from
northeasterly this evening to southerly by late tomorrow
morning.

KMSP...Nearby observations suggest visibility from the smoke
will be worse than prior forecasts along with an early onset
time. Expect visibility of 4-6SM shortly after the start of the
period, likely falling through the night. Visibility down to
around 1SM looks likely overnight into early tomorrow morning,
generally between 3-8 AM.

Isolated showers & thunderstorms can`t be ruled out around the
terminal late tomorrow afternoon & evening.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
FRI...VFR. Wind SW 10-15kts.
SAT...VFR. Wind N 10-15kts.
SUN...VFR. Chc -TSRA. Wind S 5-10kts.
&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...Extreme Heat Warning until 9 PM CDT this evening for Benton-
     Blue Earth-Brown-Chippewa-Douglas-Goodhue-Kandiyohi-Lac
     Qui Parle-Le Sueur-McLeod-Meeker-Nicollet-Pope-Redwood-
     Renville-Rice-Sherburne-Sibley-Stearns-Stevens-Swift-Todd-
     Watonwan-Wright-Yellow Medicine.
     Heat Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 9 PM CDT Thursday for
     Benton-Blue Earth-Brown-Chippewa-Douglas-Goodhue-
     Kandiyohi-Lac Qui Parle-Le Sueur-McLeod-Meeker-Nicollet-
     Pope-Redwood-Renville-Rice-Sherburne-Sibley-Stearns-
     Stevens-Swift-Todd-Watonwan-Wright-Yellow Medicine.
     Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT Thursday for Chisago-Faribault-
     Freeborn-Isanti-Kanabec-Martin-Mille Lacs-Morrison-Steele-
     Waseca.
     Extreme Heat Warning until 9 PM CDT Friday for Anoka-Carver-
     Dakota-Hennepin-Ramsey-Scott-Washington.
WI...Extreme Heat Warning until 9 PM CDT this evening for Chippewa-
     Dunn-Eau Claire-Pepin-Pierce-St. Croix.
     Heat Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 9 PM CDT Thursday for
     Chippewa-Dunn-Eau Claire-Pepin-Pierce-St. Croix.
     Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT Thursday for Barron-Polk-Rusk.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BED
AVIATION...ETA