044
FXUS63 KMPX 120010
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
710 PM CDT Sat Oct 11 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Breezy Sunday with scattered rain showers. However, widespread,
  soaking rain is not expected.

- Cooler temperatures to start the new week.

- A semi-active pattern sets up with additional rain chances mid
  and late week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 242 PM CDT Sat Oct 11 2025

Visible imagery reveals increasing cloud cover across western
Minnesota and mostly clear skies across easter Minnesota & western
Wisconsin. Cloud cover has limited our temperatures across W MN,
which in turn has kept the RH values in the 30 to 40 percent range.
Elevated fire weather conditions remain possible through the early
evening hours. Highs this afternoon will reach the mid to upper 60s
for the CWA. Southeasterly winds have ramped up this afternoon.
Western MN has seen sustained values near 20 MPH and gusts to 30-35
MPH. Tonight`s low temperatures will only cool into the 50s due to
the uptick in cloud cover & warm air advection.

For Sunday, temperatures will warm into the 70s ahead of the
approaching cold front. Southeast winds remain gusty, 15-25 mph
sustained, with gusts up to 30-35 mph. Hi-res guidance depicts
development of multiple rounds of scattered showers along & ahead of
the surface cold front. This activity will travel east into our area
with rain chances increasing Sunday afternoon here in the Twin
Cities metro and Sunday evening in W WI. This will not be a
widespread soaking rainfall. Both ensemble & hi-res guidance only
produce 0.1 to 0.25" for those lucky enough to receive a shower.
Most locations may stay dry to a trace of precip. There is a chance
for slightly higher amounts in far W MN, but not enough to produce
any additional impacts. Winds turn to the northwest behind the front
and a surge of drier, cooler air will arrive just in time for the
new work week.

High temperatures will be near climatological average for the start
of the week. Highs in the 60s on Monday & 50s on Tuesday before
rebound back to the 60s for the rest of the period - likely 10+
degrees above normal by Friday. The culprit will be a positively
tilted trough digging into the West Coast and the response will be an
impressive ridge that builds into the Plains & Upper Midwest by mid-
week. Some scattered showers are possible Tuesday night tied to the
surge of WAA & moisture advection ahead of the western trough. The
best chance for any organized rainfall arrives Thursday & Friday. A
surface low will form lee of the Rockies & track into from the
Central Plains into the Northern Plains before wrapping up over the
Canadian Prairies. The NBM has kept PoPs in the 30 to 60% range
given the spread in guidance this far out. For those hoping for a
taste of Fall or an early taste of Winter - the extended range
doesn`t offer any sustained threat of cold air in the central CONUS.
This pattern seems to sustain itself until a Pacific jet extension
late month, which is not a cold signal either. So what? That means
we`ll likely have to wait until November before we even think about
the potential of snow.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 643 PM CDT Sat Oct 11 2025

Main aviation concern remains the breezy southeasterly winds.
High clouds will gradually overspread the region and lower
throughout the period. The approaching cold front will bring
several chances for showers with the bulk of the precip falling
just ahead and along the front during the late afternoon into
the evening. Some isolated TSRA is possible, but not expected.
Winds will remain strong for the majority of Sunday, with
sustained values near 15-25kts and gusts around 25-35kts. One
thing to note with the forecast is that ceiling heights should
generally remain above 4-5kft and the showers will have to
overcome a relatively dry layer of air near the surface,
potentially limiting the onset of precipitation for locations.

Expect a period of borderline LLWS as the low level jet
increases overnight. Have only included at MKT for now, but
sites across western MN could see impacts as well.

KMSP...Delayed the onset of rain until Sunday afternoon when a
quick push of pre-frontal -SHRA should be able to overcome the
layer of dry air near the surface. We may see a few hours of dry
conditions, or just isolated showers, before the frontal
passage occurs some time around or just after 00-01z. Expect
precipitation to come to an end near 06z.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
MON...VFR. Wind NW 10-15G20kts.
TUE...VFR. Wind NE 5-10kts.
WED...VFR. Wind E 5-10kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BPH
AVIATION...BED