774
FXUS63 KMPX 041655
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
1155 AM CDT Fri Sep 4 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Hot & humid today into saturday with heat index values of
  95-100 possible. Heat Advisory in effect for Twin Cities metro
  during the afternoon.

- Frequent chances for scattered showers & thunderstorms into
  next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 352 AM CDT Fri Sep 4 2026

Heat and humidity are the main weather concern for today, with
widespread heat indices in the 90s expected this afternoon. A
pool of dewpoints in the low 70s remain across much of the
southern half of MN and western WI, however northerly winds and
outflow from last night`s storms will usher in lower dewpoints.
This will limit heat indices from getting too out of control,
though southern MN may hold onto enough of this moisture into
the afternoon to approach 100 degree heat indices. The urban
heat island of the Twin Cities metro will be the most vulnerable
to heat impacts, with afternoon heat indices hovering right
around that lower threshold of 95F. At the same time, WBGT are
forecasted to be around 84-85F in the metro as well, even with
our lower sun angle this time of year. This reaches a threshold
for high risk of heat related illness and suggests limited
exercise outside, especially for vulnerable populations. We have
opted to go ahead with a metro- specific Heat Advisory despite
the uncertainty and borderline values. It will be hot today
regardless of thresholds and given that it is early September,
it felt worthwhile to give the extra messaging boost for this
anomalous heat. Our most recent Heat Advisory for the metro
dates back to July 27th.

The best chance for any storms today will be along the MN/IA
border, though the latest hi-res guidance continues to trend
dry for the region.

We remain in a hot and stormy pattern with ridging in place
overhead through early next week. Long range guidance
continues to favor storms and appreciable rainfall over western
MN and the Dakotas where better forcing from northeastward
advancing shortwave disturbances is expected. The SWODY2 and 3
both depict this idea as well, with the marginal risks each day
only clipping a part of western MN. The best chance for
widespread precip will likely come some time Monday into Tuesday
as a more organized shortwave breaks down the upper level
ridge. Winds will then increase out of the northwest and advect
in more seasonable temperatures and drier air through the end of
the week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1152 AM CDT Fri Sep 4 2026

The stubborn stratus deck continues to slowly erode as we head
into the afternoon, with satellite showing the thinning such
that we should finally see it become mostly sunny by around 20z
for most locations. All sites should lift to VFR until at least
03-04z, at which point more low clouds/fog become possible. One
difference between this morning and the upcoming period is that
winds are generally stronger, except for RNH/EAU, such that fog
should be a bit patchier although periods of IFR remain
possible. Drier air is also advecting in from winds that will
favor northerly, so we should not see a repeat of today in that
most of the low clouds/fog should dissipate by roughly 15-16z.

KMSP...Kept some of the stratus around until 20z but remaining
VFR, with a chance for IFR arriving as early as 08-09z with more
low stratus/fog. Not as confident as this morning`s round, but
still enough to maintain the TEMPO inherited from the 12z TAF.
We become VFR through the rest of the period after around 16z
tomorrow.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SUN...Chc SHRA/TSRA/MVFR. Wind SE 5-10kts.
MON...Likely SHRA, chc TSRA/MVFR. Wind SE 10-15kts.
TUE...Likely SHRA, chc TSRA/MVFR. Wind S 10-15kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...Heat Advisory until 6 PM CDT this evening for Anoka-Carver-
     Dakota-Hennepin-Ramsey-Scott-Washington.
WI...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BED
AVIATION...TDH