349
FXUS63 KMPX 172326
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
626 PM CDT Fri Jul 17 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Very hot and humid this afternoon. A cold front will bring
  cooler and less humid conditions Saturday.

- Isolated showers and thunderstorms are possible along the
  front this evening across eastern Minnesota and Wisconsin.
  Additional storm chances Sunday night and Monday.

- Areas of smoke may make a return this weekend.

- Much cooler air arrives by the middle of next week with lows
  in the 50s and highs near 80.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 310 PM CDT Fri Jul 17 2026

Temperatures continue to climb this afternoon with 2 PM readings
now in the low to mid 90s. Expecting to gain another few
degrees until reaching highs in the mid to upper 90s by late
afternoon. Dew points have not dropped as expected, and in fact
remain in the low to mid 70s outside of the core metro. This has
allowed heat indices to reach hotter levels than predicted. The
Heat Advisory was expanded earlier to the Albert Lea and Eau
Claire areas. Am contemplating expanding the Extreme Heat
Warning from the metro into central and western Minnesota where
heat indices have begun to top 105 in a few locations.

A cold front is beginning to reach west central Minnesota. Winds
have shifted northwest behind it from Aberdeen, to Fergus Falls
and Park Rapids. Immediately behind the front dew points remain
quite elevated, but farther upstream relief is in sight where
temps are in the 70s and dew points in the 60s. Storms may fire
along the front as it continues southeast this evening. The best
chance of this occurring is over eastern MN and WI, mostly east
of I-35. Strong instability and weak shear may be enough to get
a few organized storms capable of producing hail and wind, but
the severe risk is low given low coverage of storms and sub-
optimal shear.

Drier air works in Saturday, but warm temperatures will remain.
There may be some light smoke returning in the northerly flow,
but higher concentrations may work into areas east of I-35
Saturday night and Sunday. MPCA noted there are a lot of
variables in play such as fire behavior following earlier rain,
and how active fires will become again Saturday. Therefore,
confidence is low at this time but still worth mentioning the
potential.

Northwest flow will prevail Sunday and a trough will begin to
approach Sunday night. Low level moisture will increase and
pwats may approach 2 inches by late Sunday night. Some increase
in the LLJ and passing disturbances in the northwest mid level
flow should spark thunderstorms Sunday night which may continue
into Monday morning. Should those storms not develop, Monday
should be another very hot day and worthy of headlines. The
early day convection also casts low confidence on the potential
for renewed development along the cold front in the afternoon
and evening.

Cooler and less humid air returns by midweek. Highs in the upper
70s to low 80s and lows in the 50s will bring much needed
relief from the recent heat. There are signs of the ridge
returning by next weekend which may bring another round of heat
toward the end of the month.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 621 PM CDT Fri Jul 17 2026

There are two main concerns within this TAF period, those being
the potential for some pulse-type storms from around 02-05z from
the north to southeast, with guidance not performing
particularly well in terms of placing the ongoing storms in
northern WI, keeping confidence on the lower side. As such,
still rocking prob30 groups as opposed to TEMPO/prevailing as
the confidence level just isn`t there. The other concern is the
potential for further smoke dropping visibilities, with the best
chance early on at AXN/RWF. 6sm FU is possible after the storms
move out, with a brief break possible during the early daytime
hours tomorrow before returning later in the day.

KMSP...Maintained a prob30 for -TSRA from 02-04z due to low
confidence. The HRRR has consistently tried to place storms in
the area around that time, however other guidance remains
farther east and we have yet to see radar or satellite
observations favoring further development to the west of where
storms currently are. If we do not see some development to our
northwest within the first hour of the TAF, we likely do not
see -TSRA at all.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SUN...MVFR/FU early, chc -TSRA PM, otherwise VFR. Wind S
5-10kts.
MON...VFR, chc PM MVFR/-TSRA. Wind SW to NW 10-15G20-25kts.
TUE...VFR. Wind NW 15-20G25-30kts.


&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for Benton-Blue
     Earth-Brown-Chippewa-Chisago-Douglas-Faribault-Freeborn-
     Goodhue-Isanti-Kanabec-Kandiyohi-Lac Qui Parle-Le Sueur-
     Martin-McLeod-Meeker-Mille Lacs-Morrison-Nicollet-Pope-
     Redwood-Renville-Rice-Sherburne-Sibley-Stearns-Steele-
     Stevens-Swift-Todd-Waseca-Watonwan-Wright-Yellow Medicine.
     Extreme Heat Warning until 9 PM CDT this evening for Anoka-
     Carver-Dakota-Hennepin-Ramsey-Scott-Washington.
WI...Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for Barron-Chippewa-
     Dunn-Eau Claire-Pepin-Pierce-Polk-Rusk-St. Croix.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Borghoff
AVIATION...TDH