102
FXUS63 KMPX 231847
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
147 PM CDT Thu Jul 23 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Warmer, closer to normal, temperatures through tomorrow with
  much hotter temperatures this weekend into next week.

- Limited opportunities for rain/storms, with the best chance
  on Sunday late afternoon into the evening.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 136 PM CDT Thu Jul 23 2026

It`s another beautiful July day as a broad surface high
stretches across much of the Great Lakes region. Increasing
southerly flow on its western periphery will support a gradual
warming trend heading into the weekend. Highs are expected to
peak on Saturday through Monday with widespread 90s likely each
day. Heat impacts will be a concern, especially with dewpoint
temperatures ranging between 65 to 75 degrees. This will result
in afternoon heat indices approaching 100F each day. The heat
continues into the week, though with the ridge expected to
weaken and a passing shortwave or two in the flow aloft, we
should see some relief from the heat. It may not be much, but it
will feel better than nothing.

Our rain chances will remain limited over the next 7 days,
though there is an increasing signal for at least some
scattered storms Sunday PM. A very moist and unstable airmass
will be in place across the region as a subtle impulse in the
flow spreads east from the Dakotas. For any storms that develop
within this forcing, it will be a prime environment for severe
weather given the increasing LLJ and several thousand J/kg of
MUCAPE. There is some uncertainty with timing as well, but late
afternoon into the evening would be favored as the EML deepens.
A 15% risk for severe weather is centered over MN and WI for the
Day 4 SWO.

It should be highlighted as well that there is a Day 2 Slight
Risk across portions of northern MN and eastern ND. There are
some indications that decaying storms could continue into
central MN Friday evening, though instability quickly decreases
the further south the storms travel which should limit their
mobility.

Under this building ridge, northwesterly flow aloft may usher in
periods of elevated smoke from wildfires across western North
America. The impacts from this would be more if higher
concentrations were expected to be at the surface, but it is
worth noting since it could still be noticeable in the sky at
the very least.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 136 PM CDT Thu Jul 23 2026

VFR conditions continue through the period with increasing
low level clouds tomorrow morning. Winds generally remain out of
the south, but will become breezy tomorrow afternoon, with
gusts up to around 20 kts.

KMSP...No additional concerns.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SAT...VFR. Wind SW to W 7-12 kts.
SUN...VFR, with -TSRA possible late. Wind S 15G20 kts.
MON...VFR, with -TSRA possible. Wind NW at 5-10 kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BED
AVIATION...WFO MPX