973
FXUS63 KMPX 231733
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
1133 AM CST Sun Feb 23 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Warm up continues with highs in the 40s and low 50s for most
  of this week.

- A few chances for light rain/snow next week. Best chance
  currently is Tuesday night.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 252 AM CST Sun Feb 23 2025

Mid-level clouds over much of MN and WI have slowed the fall of
temperatures tonight. Portions of western WI and eastern MN have
managed to cool into the mid to upper 20s with more breaks in
the clouds. Farther west, temperatures are still largely in the
30s with even DXX and CNB above 40 early this morning. Radar is
also showing returns within these clouds over western MN with
the AWOS in MVE even reporting light drizzle. However, most of
the precip is evaporating before it reaches the ground due to
dry low-levels. Most of the clouds should move to our east later
this morning, giving way to at least partly sunny skies. This
will allow for another warm late February day. In fact, highs
throughout this week will be well above normal with at least 40s
for the entire area. Southwestern MN and areas along the
Buffalo Ridge will see the warmest highs with values near or
above 50. In fact, for the projected warmest days of the week
(Monday and Tuesday) places in this region could even get close
to 60. Due to temperatures overachieving Saturday afternoon,
have blended in the 75th and even some 90th percentile of the
NBM for high temperatures through Wednesday. Overnight lows are
also forecast to be quite warm; largely above freezing tonight
and in the upper 20s to lower 30s Monday through Thursday night.

As for precipitation throughout this week, several shortwaves
are forecast to pass through the Northern Plains/Upper Midwest
within the northwesterly flow. The first wave will arrive
Sunday night, but should mostly be off to the northeast limiting
flurry chances to our WI counties. A more substantial shortwave
looks to arrive during Monday. While moisture is limited with
this feature, models do develop light QPF over the southern half
of MN. The HRRR even shows what looks like cellular precip
signatures with some non-zero MUCAPE nearby. Perhaps southern MN
could see some building cumulus and maybe even a rumble of
thunder Monday afternoon? We`ll have to see. Currently have
20-30% PoPs Monday for much of the area due to concerns about
areal coverage. Guidance suggests the best chance for precip
during the period will be associated with another shortwave
Tuesday night into Wednesday. The GFS, ECMWF, and GEM all show
weak surface cyclogenesis occurring near southwestern MN with an
area of precip forming north of the low Tuesday night. Timing
of when the precip occurs will be important as temperatures cool
overnight bottoming out within a few degrees near freezing.
Because of this, rain that happens initially could see at least
a partial changeover to snow by sunrise Wednesday. This is most
likely across western WI where perhaps a dusting of snow is
possible Wednesday morning. Precip should change back over to
all rain before exiting to our east by Wednesday afternoon.

Friday`s forecast will also be interesting to monitor as
guidance favors an Alberta Clipper passing through the Upper
Midwest. While it currently looks like a majority of the
precipitation will be off to our north and east, the bigger
signal for us is strong winds following the passage of a cold
front. Numerous EPS members have wind gusts exceeding 40 mph for
MSP later Friday with even a few members near or above 50 mph.
This will have to be watched as winds this strong would require
headlines and present potentially hazardous weather. Cold air
will also follow the front, which should remain over the region
through most of next weekend. We also look to dry out for the
weekend as upper-level ridging approaches from the west. Though,
we may not stay dry for too long as long-range ensembles hint
"troughiness" somewhere in the central CONUS during next week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1128 AM CST Sun Feb 23 2025

VFR conditions expected throughout this duration. Cloud decks
will waver between 080-120 through Monday morning. Ceilings are
scattering out at present, but will return this afternoon and
remaining in place through tonight. The main issue will be
stronger winds tonight into Monday morning, including LLWS this
evening through most of the overnight hours in response to a
low-level trough moving through the region. While surface winds
remain SW, strong westerly winds within the lowest 2 kft will
increase to 35-45kts, producing LLWS conditions during the
evening through early morning hours.

KMSP...Main issue will be LLWS associated with the passage of a
low-level trough. At the surface, the strongest winds will be
nearly down 22, possibly creating marginal crosswind concerns
for overnight traffic.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
TUE...VFR. Chc MVFR cigs. Wind NW 5-10 kts bcmg SW.
WED...VFR. Chc MVFR/-RA early. Wind NW 10-15 kts.
THU...VFR. Wind NW 5-10 kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CTG
AVIATION...PV