744
FXUS63 KMPX 050525
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
1225 AM CDT Sat Oct 5 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Saturday afternoon, elevated fire weather conditions,
  especially across southwest Minnesota (see Fire Wx discussion
  below).

- Saturday afternoon/evening, small chance of thunderstorms
  across western Wisconsin.

- Dry weather continues with a gradual warm up back to near 80
  by late next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 146 PM CDT Fri Oct 4 2024

TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...Early afternoon satellite imagery and
surface obs showed sunny skies across the region and
temperatures warming up nicely after a cold morning. WInds were
light across Wisconsin under the surface high pressure, but
starting to take on a southerly direction across Minnesota.

Overnight these southerly winds will increase as the high drifts
east and the pressure gradient tightens with an approaching cold
front. Southerly winds will gust 25 to 35 ahead of the front,
and this will draw up a considerable amount of moisture as
dewpoints climb into the mid 50s across the region. Eventually
this moisture, and the forcing along the cold front, will lead
to scattered showers and thunderstorms, but these are expected
to develop mainly east of I-35, and north of I-94, with better
chances across northern and eastern Wisconsin. There is still a
chance for rain in western Wisconsin, but most locations will
likely remain dry, and any rainfall amount will be light.

Behind the front, winds will become west/northwest and dewpoints
will decrease which will lead to elevated fire weather
conditions across west/southwest Minnesota. A Fire Weather Watch
is in effect, with additional information in the fire weather
section below.

Looking ahead, northwest winds will Sunday continue on Saturday
behind the departing cold front, which could lead to elevated
fire weather conditions again in the afternoon. Winds will
decrease toward evening, and the overall pressure gradient will
remain fairly relaxed across the Upper Midwest for much of next
week. Temperatures will slowly warm, with highs near 80s looking
more likely for Thursday and Friday. The chance for rain is
zero, or near zero, for the entire week.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1158 PM CDT Fri Oct 4 2024

VFR conditions continue, with the main impact coming from
blustery winds associated with a frontal passage. Strong winds
around 2kft associated with the LLJ will likely result in a
period of 40-45kt LLWS this morning ahead of the front. Surface
winds will gradually increase after sunrise, peaking with gusts
around 25-30kts during the afternoon. FROPA will occur from west
to east during the afternoon/evening timeframe. Little to no precip
is expected, however a 6-8 hour period of increased mid-high
cloud cover looks likely across the region.

KMSP...Southeasterly winds will continue to increase throughout
the night. Confidence is medium-high for marginal LLWS impacts
this morning, and low-medium for tonight as strong northwesterly
winds on the back end of the system move overhead. As such, LLWS
may need to be added for tonight if confidence increases. The
strongest surface winds and gusts today are expected from late
morning into the afternoon.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SUN...VFR. Wind NW 15G25-30kts.
MON...VFR. Wind W 5-10kts.
TUE...VFR. Wind S/SE 5-10kts.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 146 PM CDT Fri Oct 4 2024

The three sections below will talk about the fire weather
conditions for Saturday, Sunday, and the upcoming week.

Saturday, elevated fire weather conditions are expected behind
the cold front across western and southwest Minnesota Saturday
afternoon. Ahead of the front, southerly winds will be gusting
30 to 35 mph, but moisture should be high enough to keep the
fire weather conditions at bay as dewpoints climb into the mid
50s. Areas behind the front are the main concern, as dewpoints
will decrease and humidity will fall into the lower 20s. This
will be short-lived, lasting only a few hours during the
afternoon into the early evening. Humidity values will increase
toward sunset. A Fire Weather Watch is in effect from 1pm to 7pm
Saturday across western/southwest MN, with the worst conditions
expected after 3pm.

Sunday, northwest winds and dry conditions will continue.
Currently forecast humidity will bottom out near 30 percent, and
northwest winds should be in the 20 to 25 mph range, making this
a marginal fire weather day. The winds will be decreasing toward
the late afternoon as high pressure builds across the region.

Looking ahead, winds will be fairly light the rest of the
upcoming week, but conditions will remain dry. Temperatures will
gradually warm, and by Thursday and Friday highs will be back
into the upper 70s to lower 80s, with humidity in the 20s and
30s.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...Fire Weather Watch from Saturday afternoon through Saturday
     evening for Chippewa-Lac Qui Parle-Redwood-Stevens-Swift-
     Yellow Medicine.
WI...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JRB
AVIATION...BED
FIRE WEATHER...JRB