255
FXUS63 KMPX 112342
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
642 PM CDT Thu Jun 11 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Rain showers dissipate this evening. A few rumbles of thunder
  possible late this afternoon.

- Scattered showers & thunderstorms expected Friday evening
  across central MN & western WI. The strongest storms could
  contain hail.

- Below-nromal temperatures expected into the middle of next
  week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 242 PM CDT Thu Jun 11 2026

A few breaks in the cloud cover have allowed for pockets of
heating & instability to develop, & as a result we are seeing a
few thunderstorms embedded within the bands of light showers
this afternoon. Not expecting any hail or wind out of these
storms, but could see some lighting at times for any outdoor
events. The light rain will come to an end this evening as the
surface low to our south continues to move off to the east.
Cooler air continuing to stream into the region will keep
overnight lows in the 50s.

More sunshine is expected Friday which will allow for warmer
temperatures near 80 during the afternoon. Even cooler & drier
air arrives during the evening as a cold front drops south out
of Canada. We`ll likely see a band of scattered showers &
thunderstorms develop along the forcing ahead of this front
during the late afternoon & evening, most likely across central
Minnesota & western Wisconsin. High-resolution ensembles show
500-1000 J/kg of most-unstable CAPE ahead of the front along
with 40-50 kts of deep shear, & most high-resolution models do
depict a few rotating thunderstorms developing in this
environment. The surface-based instability will probably be too
paltry to result in much of a wind or tornado threat, but some
hail with the strongest storms certainly seems likely along with
the lighting risk. The thunderstorm threat along the front
mostly ends by midnight, but another round of scattered showers
& a few thunderstorms looks possible as heating ramps up again
Saturday morning across southern Minnesota. This precipitation
should end before midnight & then we`re expecting a pleasantly
cool Saturday with highs in the upper 60s to low 70s.

Below-normal temperatures are expected through the weekend into
the middle of next week as broad troughing & northwest flow
aloft persists over the Great lakes region. Daytime
temperatures will likely be up around 70 degrees while
overnight lows fall into the upper 40s to mid 50s. Dew point
values will be much more comfortable as well. Some light rain is
possible Monday night into Tuesday but otherwise we should
remain dry during this stretch of cooler & drier weather.
Temperatures are likely to remain on the cool end later in the
week but ensemble guidance shows more perturbations in the
northwest flow aloft, meaning we could see more chances for
widespread rainfall & thunderstorms.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 626 PM CDT Thu Jun 11 2026

Pretty impressive wave on satellite and radar is moving across
the Twin Cities at the start of this period, and will continue
to push showers across western WI through 3z. After that, skies
will clear out tonight, setting the stage for a day of deep
mixing on Friday. This deep mixing will result in gusty winds
developing by late morning, with some gusts to between 30 and 35
kts possible across MN. By the end of the period, we`ll start
to see scattered showers developing across central MN between
20z and 22z, though coverage of those showers is expected to
ramp up between 00z and 06z Saturday, so in the 24 to 30 hour
window of this period.

KMSP...Most hi-res models show showers and a few TS working
across the the region between roughly 00z and 08z Sat. Went with
prevailing shra starting at 1z, with a prob30 for TS based on
when the HREF shows its best lightning probs.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SAT...VFR. Wind NW at 10-20 kts.
SUN...VFR. Wind NW at 10-20 kts.
MON...VFR. Wind NW at 10-20 kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...ETA
AVIATION...MPG