854
FXUS63 KMPX 020356
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
1056 PM CDT Fri Aug 1 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Wildfire smoke and poor air quality expected to continue
  through the weekend.

- Chances for rain early Sunday across western Minnesota,
  spreading eastward into Monday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 349 PM CDT Fri Aug 1 2025

Diurnal Cu has managed to pop across the western two thirds of
Minnesota despite the continued presence of wildfire smoke.
Smoke both aloft and at the surface continues to cause
reductions in visibility (generally 3-5 miles) and poor air
quality. The Minnesota Pollution Control Agency (MPCA) has
updated their forecast through the weekend to hang onto the
smoke through Sunday (potentially lingering into Monday), with
the Air Quality Alert now into effect until noon on Monday.
Aside from the smoke, temperatures will remain pleasant with
highs in the upper 70s to low 80s and comfortable dew points.
Rain chances have increased across western Minnesota for early
Sunday as a disturbance from the Dakotas attempts to shift to
the east. The surface high centered over Wisconsin will help
keep the majority of the rain confined to the Dakotas, but PoPs
have been increased for much of western/west central Minnesota
during the day Sunday. A few rumbles of thunder are possible,
but the better CAPE values and forcing will remain off to the
west.

This system will gain some eastward ground heading into Monday,
as the surface high begins to weaken and move east. Rain
chances are expected to be highest once again across western and
central Minnesota, but some scattered showers can`t be ruled
out elsewhere. A warmer and more active period looks likely for
the first full week of August. Once our high pressure moves out,
we should see smoke diminish and clearer skies return.
Continued low chances for showers and storms will exist through
the end of the forecast period. Tds will begin to creep up by
mid week with temperatures following suit.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1056 PM CDT Fri Aug 1 2025

Smoke continues to reduce vsby to as low as 3 miles this
evening. But some locales are at 7 miles. There is quite the
patchwork quilt of varying visibilities. Will need to generally
stick with 5-6 miles in the tafs through the forecast period.
The other concern is patchy fog. With light to calm winds and
temp dewpoint spreads only a degree in spots, some of the
typically favored areas may see IFR visibilities early Saturday
morning in fog. Otherwise, just some overnight high clouds and
then a few cumulus Saturday afternoon.

KMSP...No additional concerns.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SUN...VFR. Wind S 5-10 kts.
MON...VFR. Slight chc MVFR/-TSRA, Wind SE 5-10 kts.
TUE...VFR. Wind SE 10 kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Dye
AVIATION...TDK