998
FXUS63 KMPX 080006
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
706 PM CDT Sat Jun 7 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Diurnally-driven scattered showers are expected each
  afternoon through Monday.

- More widespread showers and thunderstorms expected late
  tonight into early Sunday morning along a cold front.

- Warmer and more active pattern arrives Wednesday. Potential
  for multiple rounds of strong storms and heavy rain through
  the end of the period.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 354 PM CDT Sat Jun 7 2025

Popcorn showers have popped up this afternoon, resulting in
brief heavy downpours and isolated instances of CTG lightning.
Many of these look to be very boundary driven, popping up as
that forcing moves through and then fizzling out after about
10-20 minutes. This activity will continue until around sunset,
which is also around the time our incoming cold front (and line
of storms) will sag southeast into western Minnesota. There is a
low chance that this line will produce marginally severe wind
and hail as it moves into MN, but it should at the very least
produce heavy rain and frequent lightning as it travels
southeast during the evening. Expected arrival time in eastern
MN is right around midnight, and then closer to 3am before it
moves completely into western WI.

Sunday and Monday will be quite breezy and noticeably cooler
behind the front. The 12z HREF probabilities show roughly a
80-100% chance for gusts over 25 mph across western Minnesota,
peaking during the afternoon both days. Gusts fall off pretty
quickly towards the Minnesota/Wisconsin border, but hi-res
models, such as the 15z RAP, suggest it is not out of the realm
of possibility to see a 20-25 mph gust as far east as Eau
Claire. A stream of moisture will eventually bring a chance for
scattered showers as air wraps around the upper low, primarily
Sunday night into Monday. Outside of then, a persistent chance
for isolated showers will last through Monday afternoon.
Overall, QPF looks to be only a few hundredths to a couple
tenths at most for areas that are impacted by the showers.

The low eventually exits east, allowing ridging to build in
across the central US -- rebounding temperatures and allowing
moisture to stream northwards. This could set up multiple
chances for heavy rain and strong thunderstorms next week. The
CSU ML guidance highlights both Wednesday and Thursday as the
highest likelihood for Minnesota and western Wisconsin to see
any severe weather, albeit generally less than 15% chance right
now with model guidance still coming into focus this far out.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 700 PM CDT Sat Jun 7 2025

Diurnally-driven SHRA/TSRA are undergoing their dissipating
stage at initialization, so aside from the lingering activity
near the WI TAF sites for another hour or so, earlier
precipitation is just about done. Focus turns to the activity
ongoing over NW MN into the eastern Dakotas where there is an
organized line of TSRA steadily sliding eastward. Per CAMs, this
activity is expected to progress across MN this evening through
the early morning hours and into WI prior to daybreak.
Confidence continues to rise on this thinking, so have
transitioned the PROB30s to TEMPOs to highlight the best timing.
MVFR likely, IFR still possible. Will need to see how winds are
portrayed with this line before adding any wind effects to the
TEMPOs. Behind this activity, upper level smoke is likely to
move across the area during the day Sunday but confidence is
low as to whether surface visibility will be impacted so have
kept its mention out at this point.

KMSP...Started out the TAF as VFR but will look for a round of
RA/TSRA to move across the area in the 06z-09z timeframe. Could
be an hour sooner, if anything, but consensus timing is what is
currently advertised. Otherwise, upper level smoke is likely to
move across the area behind the precipitation and last through
the day Sunday, but confidence is low on surface impacts so have
kept FU mention out of the TAFs for the time being.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
MON...VFR. Aftn -SHRA/MVFR likely. Wind NW 10-15G25 kts.
TUE...VFR. Wind NW 10-15 kts.
WED...VFR. Chc -TSRA late. Wind SW bcmg SE 5-10 kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BED
AVIATION...JPC