277
FXUS63 KMPX 251125
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
625 AM CDT Fri Jul 25 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Quiet weather through Saturday aside from poor air quality
  through this evening due to wildfire smoke.

- Warming temperatures with highs near 90 and heat indices in
  the upper 90s to low 100s on Sunday.

- Unsettled weather resumes on Sunday and lasts through early
  next week with daily thunderstorm chances.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 413 AM CDT Fri Jul 25 2025

Surface high pressure currently resides over the upper Great Lakes
region early this morning which is expected to linger overhead for at
least 24hrs. Areas of wildfire smoke has once again been advected in
from flow aloft. The smoke will take its time to clear as we wait for
troughing over NE`rn Ontario to pull it eastward later today. Thus,
unhealthy air quality will be present for most especially across
northern Minnesota. An air quality alert remains in place for all of MN
counties until 11 PM tonight. Aside from smoke concerns, lack of winds
and radiational cooling have allowed for areas of dense fog to develop.
The fog is not expected to linger long after sunrise but visibilities
in a few areas could reach below one quarter mile. Therefore if on the
road early this morning, slow down and use low-beam headlights. Once
the fog clears, skies will be partly cloudy mixed with
suspended wildfire smoke and highs in the mid 80s.

By Saturday through Monday, ridging over the eastern CONUS continues to
build. Saturday looks dry with mostly sunny to partly cloudy skies
although surface flow will be nearly due south meaning dew points are
expected to creep into the lower 70s. As an h850 thermal ridge moves
eastward into this moist airmass, heat indices by Saturday afternoon
will reach the 90s for most to near 100 degrees across western MN.
Sunday looks to be even warmer and stickier. Ridging across the south
becomes broader and stronger which will only bring more heat and
humidity northward. Dew points on Sunday will range in the mid to upper
70s with highs in lower 90s. Heat headlines may be needed especially on
Sunday as heat indices reach the upper 90s to lower 100s. Conditions
will remains hot and sticky into Monday although Uncertainty remains as
to where and how much convection lingers from the previous day.

As mentioned in the previous discussion, there is a potential caveat
with Sunday`s heating. Similar to what we saw earlier this week and how
convection mitigated heat concerns for many. Another round of airmass
rain and thunderstorms will be possible Sunday afternoon/evening. With
aforementioned ridging occur to our north and east, this places
the northern plains in a "ring of fire" pattern. Meaning storms
that develop within of regime of strong instability typically
travel downstream along the ridge. A factor that differs from
earlier this week is the presence of stronger capping. Forecast
soundings continue to depict strong capping above the surface
thus this environment would require a hefty source of lift in
order to tap into elevated instability. Nonetheless, something
to watch as we enter the weekend. Should severe weather develop,
all hazards will be possible to include heavy rain as PWATs
near two inches.

Another reprieve from the heat looks to arrive by the middle of next
week. Cooler and drier air is progged to follow behind a cold front
returning highs back into the upper 70s by Wednesday until the end of
the forecast period.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 621 AM CDT Fri Jul 25 2025

Aviation...IFR/MVFR fog and smoke should mix out to VFR conditions over
the next few hours this morning (14-15z). Conditions expected to remain
quiet today across all sites. WInds light out of the south-southeast at
or about 10kts. AXN could see a few gusts closer to 20kts this
afternoon. High VFR Sct to Bkn cigs move in this afternoon.

KMSP...Light SSE`ly winds for much of the period become SW`ly
tomorrow morning ~14z. Otherwise no additional concerns.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SUN...Chc morning MVFR cigs. Chc P.M. -TSRA. Wind SE 5-10kts.
MON...VFR. Chc MVFR A.M. -TSRA. Wind NNE 5-10 kts.
TUE...VFR. Chc MVFR A.M. -TSRA. Wind NE 5-10kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Dunleavy
AVIATION...Dunleavy