491
FXUS63 KMPX 051158
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
658 AM CDT Sat Sep 5 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Chances for thunderstorms Saturday & Sunday morning across
  western Minnesota.

- More widespread rainfall possible Monday into Tuesday, though
  areas across northern MN are favored for heaviest amounts.

- More seasonable airmass arrives for the rest of the week after
  Tuesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 205 AM CDT Sat Sep 5 2026

If you look out your window to the west and squint hard enough,
you may be able to see the broad cluster of storms ongoing early
this morning across the Dakotas. These storms are developing
within an area of WAA along the eastern edge of the nocturnal
LLJ. As the morning progresses, expect the storms to gradually
move east into parts of western MN, though they may be waning as
the LLJ weakens by mid morning. A couple thousand Joules of
MLCAPE and effective wind shear of about 35 kts could support
some organization of storms, and result in isolated cases of
severe wind or hail, particularly across southwest MN.

Overall heat impacts will be lower today with temperatures in
the 80s and dewpoints largely in the 60s. Southwest MN may still
feel muggy with 70 degree dewpoints lingering into today.

This pattern remains the same for the rest of the holiday
weekend, with the ridge aloft only just starting to break down
by Monday. Our best chance for more widespread precip will be
tied to the shortwave that moves through Monday into Tuesday,
though northern Minnesota remains favored for the best forcing
and greatest rainfall potential. The SPC has a marginal risk for
severe weather over western MN for the next three days while
this hot and stormy pattern holds.

The rest of the week will feature increased NW/W flow, ushering
in a more seasonable airmass for early September.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 651 AM CDT Sat Sep 5 2026

IFR-or-worse conditions have enveloped all TAF sites at
initialization, starting with low stratus moving in from the
east followed by fog for much of central-southeastern MN. All
sites will deal with these conditions lasting potentially into
late morning. Ceilings are starting out in between 200-500ft,
with a slow rise through the morning hours but the improvement
through IFR to MVFR may even be later than currently advertised.
By late morning and continuing into the evening hours, the low
level moisture will be scoured out and VFR conditions will
prevail. However, indications are that organized convection will
develop in the eastern Dakotas during the early morning hours
Sunday and press eastward across central-southern MN through
sunrise, resulting in a return to at least MVFR conditions with
showers, and possibly thunderstorms. Have left out CB/TS mention
at this point due to high uncertainty but this bears watching
how models evolve the trends for later TAFs. Winds will remain
generally easterly throughout this duration with speeds at or
under 10kts.

KMSP...LIFR conditions have been achieved at MSP this morning,
even with some -DZ being reported along with visibility down to
1sm. These conditions will remain in place through at least the
next few hours, followed by improvement to VFR by early
afternoon. Conditions look to drop approaching sunrise Sunday
morning, but too much uncertainty to mention CB/TS at this point
along with having visibility under 5sm.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
MON...Mainly VFR. Chc SHRA/MVFR. Wind SE 10-15kts.
TUE...SHRA/MVFR likely with chc TSRA, mainly in the morning.
Clearing late. Wind S 10-15kts becoming W.
WED...VFR. W 10-15kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CDT this morning for Goodhue-
     Rice-Steele.
WI...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BED
AVIATION...JPC