312
FXUS63 KMPX 052326
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
626 PM CDT Thu Jun 5 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Occasional rounds of showers with a few thunderstorms can be
  expected through Friday.

- Additional rounds of showers/thunderstorms likely Saturday-
  Monday.

- Cooler Friday through Monday, then warmer through middle of
  next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 244 PM CDT Thu Jun 5 2025

Surface analysis this afternoon depicts weak high pressure
sitting over the Central Plains into the Upper Mississippi River
Valley with a weak northern stream frontal boundary straddling
the international border and a southern stream low pressure
center developing over eastern CO/WY. Meanwhile aloft, a split-
stream setup is evident with the northern stream cycling around
an upper Hudson Bay low and the southern stream from off the
Baja coast across the Deep South atop a broad ridge over the
Gulf. A longwave trough axis oriented SW-NE sits across the
Rockies from SoCal to MT.

A weak surface trough sitting to the south of the international
border front is helping spawn scattered showers on radar over
central MN, but the key is if any of these returns are actually
reaching the surface. Dewpoint depressions are 25-30 degrees
over much of central-southern MN so it will take some time for
sufficient saturation to occur to have echoes reaching the
ground. That said, models do gradually nudge PWATs upward from
0.5" to nearly 1.0" this evening through tomorrow, which helps
justify the consensus of having PoPs increase tonight into
tomorrow. Heavy precipitation isn`t expected but
disorganized/intermittent showers with a few thunderstorms are
in order for tonight into tomorrow.

The split flow regime will generally persist Friday through the
weekend but the northern stream will become the prevailing
feature across the Upper Midwest and maintain unsettled and
cooler weather through the weekend into early next week. In
particular, a more well- developed longwave trough will swing
southeast from western Canada Friday afternoon, helping develop
the CO/WY low Friday night into Saturday. On the heels of this
trough will be an additional cold front dropping southeast,
which will aid in additional lift and dragging Pacific moisture
into the Upper Midwest. This will make for more
showers/thunderstorms Saturday-Monday along with cooler
temperatures given the more W to NW flow aloft, advecting in
cooler northern air. Highs Friday-Monday will generally be
bumped back to the mid 60s-mid 70s, though Saturday may feature
some highs near 80 in western MN ahead of these synoptic-scale
features over the weekend.

Once past these rounds of unsettled weather, upper level ridging
over the western CONUS over the weekend will shift across the
Rockies and into the central states, making for a period of
lesser chances for precipitation and warmer temperatures across
the region. Highs will return to the 80s area-wide Wednesday-
Thursday with chances of precipitation no higher than
climatology (30%) from Tuesday onward.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 625 PM CDT Thu Jun 5 2025

This evening will be VFR with light winds from variable
directions. Some showers will pass through, but it will be
unlikely to anything more than VFR showers at the terminals.
There is a chance for some heavier rainfall and a few periods of
MVFR visibility. Winds remain light into tomorrow with more
rain chances early. Rain chances generally decreasing through
the day. Depending on how much warming we get, there could be a
chance for a few isolated thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Overall though OVC with low VFR/high MVFR ceilings and some
isolated to scattered showers depening on location.

KMSP... Scattered rain showers with low VFR to high MVFR
ceilings and light winds. Can`t rule out an isolated
thunderstorms, but at this time it does not appear likely.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SAT...VFR. Chc -TSRA/MVFR. Wind SW 5-10 kts.
SUN...VFR. Chc -SHRA/MVFR. Wind NW 10-15 kts.
MON...VFR. Chc -SHRA/MVFR. Wind NW 10-15 kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JPC
AVIATION...NDC