563
FXUS63 KMPX 052320
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
620 PM CDT Sun Oct 5 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Showers & thunderstorms chances continue across eastern & southern
  Minnesota and western Wisconsin this evening.

- Cooler temperatures arrive tonight, with patchy frost possible
  Tuesday night in western Wisconsin. This will be short-lived
  with highs returning to the 70s by Wednesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 253 PM CDT Sun Oct 5 2025

Current radar imagery highlights a band of showers & thunderstorms
over the MN/WI border. These will continue to move east into WI and
bring a quick tenth of an inch of rain. Additional development
remains possible across S MN this afternoon and into the evening
hours. Latest hires guidance has this redevelopment between 22z and
00z across S/SE MN. Forecast soundings depict a few 100 j/kg of
SBCAPE that should be enough to lead to intermittent rumbles of
thunder. These showers could graze the S/E Twin Cities metro
before moving into W WI this evening and overnight. The latest
QPF has trended up to 0.50"+ for W WI overnight - must needed
rain given the recent stretch of warm & dry weather conditions.
Winds shift to the northwest behind the passing cold front this
evening & gusts taper off overnight. Lows will bottom out in the
40s & 50s tonight as cooler air settles in behind the departing
system.

For this upcoming work week, surface high pressure builds into the
region the first half of the week. This high pressure will support
clear skies & light winds - allowing overnight temperatures to fall
into the in the 30s and 40s Monday & Tuesday night. This could lead
to patchy frost across portions of central MN and western WI.
Temperatures may even flirt with freezing across NW WI early
Wednesday morning. This high pressure will shift east mid-week,
allowing southerly flow to return across the Upper Midwest.
Temperatures will slowly warm throughout the week with highs in the
low to mid 70s by Thursday. This stretch of seasonably warm
temperatures looks to continue into mid-October, too. Unfortunately,
after today there isn`t a clear signal for any meaningful rain
through the rest of the forecast period. There is a chance for some
isolated showers Thursday afternoon but nothing that would bring
widespread rain.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 558 PM CDT Sun Oct 5 2025

Showers and a couple of thunderstorms are currently located over
southeastern MN and west-central WI. EAU is the only terminal
that could see impacts from this activity before the
precipitation exits to our east late this evening. Have upgraded
to TEMPO for -TSRA until 03Z with visibilities reducing to MVFR.
A cold front currently stretches from eastern to southern MN and
this feature will also move east, exiting our WI counties near
midnight. MVFR cigs currently over AXN will last a few more
hours this evening. These lower cigs could even bleed into STC
but have kept STC VFR the entire period for now. Cigs will
improve overnight as skies clear and clouds lift when the front
moves farther away. Scattered to broken mid-level clouds are
expected Monday afternoon. Winds this evening will gust to 20-25
knots for most terminals this evening, but will slow in speed to
around 5 knots after 06Z. Pre-frontal southwesterly winds will
switch to north-northwesterly after the frontal passage.

KMSP...The cold front is currently passing through MSP so
northwesterly winds are expected to begin the TAF period. Gusts
could reach 20-25 knots this evening before winds begin to slow
by midnight. VFR expected the entire period.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
TUE...VFR. Wind NW 5-10 kts.
WED...VFR. Wind S 5-15 kts.
THU...VFR. Wind S 10-15G25kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BPH
AVIATION...CTG