723
FXUS63 KMPX 081746
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
1146 AM CST Fri Nov 8 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Light rain showers this weekend.

- Next chance for precipitation comes mid week.

- Temperatures to remain 5 to 10 degrees above normal through
  next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 223 AM CST Fri Nov 8 2024

It`s a very quiet start to this Friday with clear skies and no fog
this time around. We have a ridge axis overhead that`s squeezed
between the northern stream up across Canada and a cut-off low that
has been unloading copious amounts of snow on the mountains of New
Mexico and Colorado. For the rest of today, we`ll remain between the
northern stream and cut-off low , which will support mostly sunny
skies and highs well into the 50s, a perfect excuse to start the 3-
day Veterans Day weekend a little early!

For the weekend, as our ridge shifts into the Great Lakes, it will
finally allow the cut-off low to depart CO/NM. Rainfall with this
system continues to trend lower, with most of the MPX area remaining
under 0.25" of QPF. It will be warm enough where p-type is not an
issue, it will be all rain. By no means will this be a washout, but
we`ll start seeing scattered light rain showers move into southwest
MN Saturday morning, that will spread northeast across the rest of
the area through Saturday afternoon. The upper low will pass through
southern MN Saturday night and will be into the Great Lakes by the
end of the day on Sunday, so that shower activity will slowly shut
off from west to east during the day on Sunday. Basically, we have
weak and broad forcing with this event, with the best moisture
transport remaining to our south, so the moisture with weak forcing
gives us the on/off showers currently expected.

Next week, we`ll see troughing dig down the west coast of North
America. In response to this, ridging develops over the central
CONUS. This means no cool-down is expected behind the weekend
system, with highs in the 50s continuing into Tuesday/Wednesday next
week (low to mid 40s are the normal highs by then). We`ll also be
dry Monday and Tuesday before the trough moves across the north
central CONUS on Wednesday. Not much has changed since the previous
discussion, with a wide range of possibilities for the strength of
this wave still in place. Within the EPS, you see a roughly equal
number of members that show this coming through the upper MS Valley
as a weak open wave or a deepening system with a negatively tilted
trough. The weak scenario would result in another round of scattered
light rain showers. The stronger members show a strong surge of
moisture coming north across the Plains, with QPF amounts in some
cases pushing upwards of 2". The NBM has fairly low PoPs for this
system, ranging from the 20s in western MN to the 40s over western
WI, indicating a slight favoring toward a weaker solution at this
point, but it is something that bears watching this weekend.

Behind this system, more troughing digs down the west coast which will
only reinforce the mild WSW flow for us. This is a pretty strong
negative phase of the PNA, which is reflected in the 8-14 day
outlooks from CPC highlighting continued warmer than normal
temperatures east of the Rockies, with the broad southwest flow
favoring a continued active pattern. So good news for continuing to
beat back the drought, but bad news if you were hoping for a head
start to winter.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1135 AM CST Fri Nov 8 2024

Clear skies today with high clouds increasing this evening,
Ceilings will lower overnight into tomorrow morning, with
borderline mVFR ceilings possible by the end of the period.
WInds will be light and variable today, becoming more easterly
overnight. The direction gradually becomes more southeasterly
through tomorrow morning with speeds increasing to around 10
kts by tomorrow afternoon.

KMSP...Rain showers will likely hold off until tomorrow
evening. MVFR ceilings will accompany the rain with ceilings
likely dropping to IFR tomorrow night.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SUN...MVFR ceilings. -SHRA likely early. Wind W 10-20 kts.
MON...VFR. Wind NW 10-20 kts.
TUE...VFR. Wind SE 15-25 kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...
AVIATION...ETA