332
FXUS63 KMPX 012325
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
525 PM CST Mon Dec 1 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Cold but otherwise relatively quiet weather this week.

- A few chances for light snow/flurries this week, mainly tomorrow
evening into early Wednesday. Another chance for non-accumulating
flurries Thursday into Friday and again over the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 300 PM CST Mon Dec 1 2025

Today has largely turned into a day of low level cloud cover
producing bursts of light snow/flurries which has led to some
visibility reductions mainly in southern Minnesota. Faribault has
been sitting below 5sm with -SN for the last few hours, so a few
reports of a tenth of an inch or two of new accumulation is not out
of the question, however webcams continue to show roadways remaining
clear. Satellite shows a brief pocket of clearing in west-central
Minnesota moving eastwards slowly, however further low to lower-mid
level cloud cover on the heels of the clearing should keep any peeks
of sun short lived this afternoon. With the low level clouds
continuing to linger, the subtle forcing from a passing upper level
trough will be enough to squeeze out further light snow showers that
should remain non accumulating for now. This trough passes across
the region tonight with the airmass unchanged heading into Tuesday.
Northwesterly flow aloft coupled with cold 850mb temperatures will
continue with any weak forcing over the colder temperatures
resulting in flurries and light snow, much like today. The best
overall chance for a dusting to up to a few tenths of an inch of
accumulation will arrive tomorrow evening into early Wednesday
morning in central Minnesota as a subtle shortwave moves over the
colder low level temperatures, producing enough lift within the DGZ
for a few bursts of heavier snowfall. Area-wise, we are only looking
at local accumulations with most seeing flurries at best, with
western WI seeing the best overall chance to pick up a few tenths of
an inch ending early Wednesday.

There is little overall change to the pattern with the exception
being a lobe of even colder arctic air pushing southwards Wednesday
evening into Thursday morning, resulting in the coldest temperatures
we have seen so far this year with low temperatures in the blended
guidance ranging from around -8 to -15F with the metro being
the warmest. As this is blended guidance, we will likely see
these numbers decrease slightly as we get a bit closer as bias
correction catches up to the cold, with 850mb temp anomalies
from -10 to -15C. The main difference in the deterministic
guidance is the strength of the surface high pressure keeping
the arctic air locked in, ranging from 1035-1040mb. This
realistically will not have a huge implication on the low
temperatures, with the 925-850mb cold layer playing the largest
role alongside our recent snowpack helping our lows crash even
lower than they would over exposed ground. Much like today, the
rest of the period will contain cosmetic/nuisance flurry chances
that do little aside from briefly reducing visibility with no
accumulation expected as of now, mainly over the weekend as
guidance is showing a weak trough moving across the region
midday Saturday through Sunday. Overall, the period is expected
to be cold with minimal active weather besides the flurry
chances.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 508 PM CST Mon Dec 1 2025

For southwest MN (RWF), greater clearing and overall VFR
conditions should prevail for the entire period. Though, did add
a TEMPO from 03-07Z for periodic MVFR cigs. Elsewhere, generally
MVFR/IFR cigs will prevail into mid-Tuesday morning. Used TEMPOs
for terminals where more periodic reductions to IFR are
expected. Clouds should break apart some and lift to VFR by
early Tuesday afternoon, before a cold front arrives from the
west Tuesday evening. Southwesterly winds near or below 5 knots
tonight will turn south by Tuesday afternoon, increasing to 5-10
knots.

KMSP...Added a TEMPO for the first few hours of the TAF for
periods of VFR as breaks in the low-level strato-cumulus pass
overhead. But, MVFR should prevail until about 18Z Tuesday
before clouds scatter and lift to VFR. MVFR cigs return Tuesday
evening after a cold frontal passage.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
WED...MVFR. Chc -SN early. Wind NW 10-15kts.
THU...VFR. Wind SW 5-10kts.
FRI...VFR, chc MVFR late. Chc -SN late. Wind SW 5-10kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...TDH
AVIATION...CTG