475
FXUS63 KMPX 211812
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
1212 PM CST Fri Nov 21 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Quiet weather through the next few days, next chance for rain
showers arrives Monday.

- Colder temperatures by and after Thanksgiving.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 248 AM CST Fri Nov 21 2025

Temperatures have plunged below freezing as clear skies and
efficient radiation cooling have pushed us down into the 20s across
most of the area, the exception being the urban heat island in the
Twin Cities and portions of southwestern MN where a tiny bit of
cloud cover had kept things just a tad warmer. Cloud cover will
generally remain sparse throughout the day with light winds as a
weak surface low passes south of the region through the south-
central CONUS. The abundant sunshine will make the high temperatures
in the mid 40s feel a bit warmer despite us being only a month away
from the winter solstice as our daylight hours continue to decrease.
Low temperatures overnight will once again generally reach near or
below freezing as the relatively clear skies continue, with this
pattern repeating itself through into Saturday and Sunday before we
finally see a return to some more active weather on Monday.

The setup for Monday right now looks to be an occluded upper level
low moving over the central Rockies before weakening into a more
diffuse trough with some embedded shortwave energy, with guidance
consistent in pushing some rain showers into southern Minnesota by
midday. The tilt of the trough as the occlusion weakens is the main
thing that is differing between different guidance, as the GFS keeps
a neutral tilt which pushes showers northwards a bit faster than the
ECMWF/CFS with a slight positive tilt and a slightly slower
timing. QPF generally looks to be a quarter to half inch through
early Tuesday with additional showers possible but a bit more
uncertain. The slight difference in tilts also results in a
much different forecast after Monday, as the GFS looks to bring
in another much stronger upper level occlusion on Tuesday with
the other deterministic guidance producing a longwave trough but
with much weaker forcing. One constant is the introduction of
some much colder air aloft as 850mb temperature anomalies on the
order of -5 to -10C are possible, which would translate to
eventual surface temperatures down into the teens and 20s across
the area. The cold temperatures then lock in as we transition
towards the later part of the week and the Thanksgiving holiday
as surface high pressure keeps the cold air locked in place.
This surface high pressure should prevent us from seeing
significant snow potential later in the week despite
temperatures cold enough to support it, so we will have to wait
a bit longer for our first widespread snowfall of the season.
Ensemble guidance is showing relatively high probabilities of
850mb temperature anomalies of
-10C with all of the major ensembles showing greater than 50
percent probabilities by early Thursday. With just a little bit
of cloud cover we may not mix down the coldest temperatures to
the surface, so the probabilities of surface temperatures
falling beyond -5 are much lower than the temperatures aloft.
Colder temperatures look to lock in as we head into early
December, with both the GEFS/EPS showing temperatures struggling
to get into the 20s for highs for the first week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1150 AM CST Fri Nov 21 2025

Quiet TAF period with light and variable winds becoming
southerly overnight. Some BKN mid-high clouds will move in this
evening, but VFR conditions will persist. By late tomorrow
morning, winds will turn to the west with speeds around 10kts.

KMSP...No additional concerns.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SUN...VFR. Wind W to SE 5kts.
MON...VFR to MVFR, PM -SHRA. Wind SE 5kts.
TUE...MVFR, chc -RASN. Wind NW 10-20kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...TDH
AVIATION...Dye